When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

40 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Labour will nod along

 

There's a surprise!

[rascalpete]

What time is the press conference or hasn’t it been announced yet?

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, rascalpete said:

What time is the press conference or hasn’t it been announced yet?

6pm

[rascalpete]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

6pm I think

 

Just now, zahidf said:

6pm

Cheers!

[DeanoL]

18 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

“There are a couple of things that are happening that should make a big difference in the next few weeks. First of all, vaccinations. Second, and slightly more subtly, schools will be out soon, and every week closer to that means less mixing in schools and more people likely to be off work, both reducing transmission,” said Prof Rowland Kao of the University of Edinburgh. “Both of those things, vaccinations and schools, means that the delay has real benefit right now.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/experts-back-four-week-delay-lifting-covid-restrictions-england-more-people-vaccinated?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

I think its a good point about schools breaking up in combination with the extra vaccines.  I wouldn't mind this delay if there was a proper commitment to open up straight after and not just go into "maybe" period.

I swear I heard that transmission doesn't happen in schools and that was proven when we re-opened them, so them being on hols won't help at all. Not sure where I heard that though...

5 hours ago, JB15 said:

I should say I’ve supported every lockdown (thinking most should have been done earlier tbh), but with a minimal risk to young people, shouldn’t they be given the choice to either live their lives fully or, if they’re not ready yet, they don’t have to go out and go to the office, party etc?

Yeah - the issue is lots don't have a choice if they want to keep their jobs. That ship sailed for most industries with the Stage 3 unlocking anyway though.

3 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

No it isn't... It isn't at all...  

This isn't December or March 2020...

We have more room at the moment to wait and see on numbers.  This isn't like the previous waves where you have to operate totally on fear and before you see an issue it has drowned you.  The vaccines buy us a window of analysis and time.  We can analysis more.  We have too.  Its the whole point of the review points and roadmap.

The risks we took and got stung by in the past aren't the same problems as we face today.   

Would be a shame if a politician squandered all that flexibility by announcing that any future unlocking would be "irreversible" thereby meaning we can't just open things up and see how it goes using the windows the vaccines buy us...

[steviewevie]

6pm press briefing is unusual, right? Usually either 4 or 5...or if it's a biggie 7 or 8pm?

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, steviewevie said:

6pm press briefing is unusual, right? Usually either 4 or 5...or if it's a biggie 7 or 8pm?

Yeah they don’t clash it with the news at 6 … 

[steviewevie]

 

[JoeyT]

 

[Justiceforcedave]

Has anyone considered that, rather than us being fed elongated restrictions in dribs and drabs by Boris and co (to make us more accepting of them), perhaps it's the scientists doing the same to Boris?

"Of course Mr Johnson, we totally understand how you want to let the virus rip but won't you think of the economy? A couple more weeks will mean more living people to spend money after restrictions are lifted."

[zahidf]

What a surprise 

[DeanoL]

There's some weird catastrophising going on in this thread. We're going to have a delay of about a month, then we're going to open up, as long as nothing else goes wrong. We're not going to be under restrictions until spring 2022.

Yes, last winter we ended up cancelling Christmas and going back into lockdown because a more transmissible variant turned up. And yes, now we're looking at delaying this re-opening because a yet more transmissible variant has turned up. 

The variants, and I can't stress this enough, were and are real. You can read the science papers on them, they've been sequenced, they're a real thing. They weren't made up. They weren't an excuse to keep us locked up. They're real. 

Could another more transmissible variant arrive during the one month extension happening now, and mean we have to delay even more? Yes, yes that could happen. Of course it could. We don't know what the virus is going to do. 

But it probably won't.

We've had some bad luck, but that was real, scientific, actually happened bad luck. We've had some good luck too: the vaccines have been far more effective that we had ever hoped and we got them real fast.

This idea that because we're delaying things because of a variant for the second time, that it'll happen again for a third and a fourth is just unscientific nonsense. It could happen, but some people are acting like it's a done deal. Like if there isn't a more transmissible variant found in the next month the government will just make one up to keep us locked down longer. It's utter conspiracy theory bollocks. 

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Well take it up with idiot Boris not me.

Sorry mate I didn't know I wasn't allowed to comment on your posts to agree with you and point out why Boris had fucked it.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

There's some weird catastrophising going on in this thread. We're going to have a delay of about a month, then we're going to open up, as long as nothing else goes wrong. We're not going to be under restrictions until spring 2022.

Yes, last winter we ended up cancelling Christmas and going back into lockdown because a more transmissible variant turned up. And yes, now we're looking at delaying this re-opening because a yet more transmissible variant has turned up. 

The variants, and I can't stress this enough, were and are real. You can read the science papers on them, they've been sequenced, they're a real thing. They weren't made up. They weren't an excuse to keep us locked up. They're real. 

Could another more transmissible variant arrive during the one month extension happening now, and mean we have to delay even more? Yes, yes that could happen. Of course it could. We don't know what the virus is going to do. 

But it probably won't.

We've had some bad luck, but that was real, scientific, actually happened bad luck. We've had some good luck too: the vaccines have been far more effective that we had ever hoped and we got them real fast.

This idea that because we're delaying things because of a variant for the second time, that it'll happen again for a third and a fourth is just unscientific nonsense. It could happen, but some people are acting like it's a done deal. Like if there isn't a more transmissible variant found in the next month the government will just make one up to keep us locked down longer. It's utter conspiracy theory bollocks. 

what he said. 👆

[MrBarry465]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

There's some weird catastrophising going on in this thread. We're going to have a delay of about a month, then we're going to open up, as long as nothing else goes wrong. We're not going to be under restrictions until spring 2022.

Yes, last winter we ended up cancelling Christmas and going back into lockdown because a more transmissible variant turned up. And yes, now we're looking at delaying this re-opening because a yet more transmissible variant has turned up. 

The variants, and I can't stress this enough, were and are real. You can read the science papers on them, they've been sequenced, they're a real thing. They weren't made up. They weren't an excuse to keep us locked up. They're real. 

Could another more transmissible variant arrive during the one month extension happening now, and mean we have to delay even more? Yes, yes that could happen. Of course it could. We don't know what the virus is going to do. 

But it probably won't.

We've had some bad luck, but that was real, scientific, actually happened bad luck. We've had some good luck too: the vaccines have been far more effective that we had ever hoped and we got them real fast.

This idea that because we're delaying things because of a variant for the second time, that it'll happen again for a third and a fourth is just unscientific nonsense. It could happen, but some people are acting like it's a done deal. Like if there isn't a more transmissible variant found in the next month the government will just make one up to keep us locked down longer. It's utter conspiracy theory bollocks. 

What he said again^

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I swear I heard that transmission doesn't happen in schools and that was proven when we re-opened them, so them being on hols won't help at all. Not sure where I heard that though...

 

There was a definite increase in infection caused by the schools going back, but not enough to get R over 1, which may explain why some people decided to claim victory in the "schools don't drive infection" argument. So it will help.

[Crazyfool01]

3 of us makes a clique 🙂 

[DeanoL]

The notion that we risk delaying the exit wave to winter, and then have problems with it coinciding with flu season. That'd be a factor I think if were still in Stage 2 where R was below 0. 

It's not any more, so we're no longer delaying the exit wave, in our current Stage 3 situation. The exit wave has started, it's happening right now. And we are using NHS capacity to treat them, and will be using more of it as hospitalisations will continue to creep up. Not at an alarming rate, but at one we can manage. 

We're not pushing the exit wave out, we're flattening the curve of it. We do need to be careful of pushing too much of it into the winter, but it's not like when we were in Stage 2 - there are people getting ill and getting treated right now. They're all part of this exit wave. In the extra month of restrictions we will still be feeding these people through the system and reducing the chance of any bigger wave when we open fully.

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I call bullshit..

Kids went back and then got heavily tested.  There isn't any evidence the uptick was caused by schools going back.  The million extra tests had more to do with us catching the cases.

Right - but if kids going back didn't cause any uptick in cases, how will kids being off school cause them to come down?

[efcfanwirral]

 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The notion that we risk delaying the exit wave to winter, and then have problems with it coinciding with flu season. That'd be a factor I think if were still in Stage 2 where R was below 0. 

It's not any more, so we're no longer delaying the exit wave, in our current Stage 3 situation. The exit wave has started, it's happening right now. And we are using NHS capacity to treat them, and will be using more of it as hospitalisations will continue to creep up. Not at an alarming rate, but at one we can manage. 

We're not pushing the exit wave out, we're flattening the curve of it. We do need to be careful of pushing too much of it into the winter, but it's not like when we were in Stage 2 - there are people getting ill and getting treated right now. They're all part of this exit wave. In the extra month of restrictions we will still be feeding these people through the system and reducing the chance of any bigger wave when we open fully.

Flattening the curve? Where have I heard that before.

 

Let's see what the idiot says tonight. They've constantly been moving the goalposts and certain members of SAGE have publicly come out in favour of forever masks and social distancing, so you can understand why there is a lack of trust.

[stuartbert two hats]

20 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I call bullshit..

Kids went back and then got heavily tested.  There isn't any evidence the uptick was caused by schools going back.  The million extra tests had more to do with us catching the cases.

That might be true if the positivity% drop off didn't also suddenly slow when the schools went back. 

Edited June 14, 2021 by stuartbert two hats
Added %

[JoeyT]

Will the press get questions tonight or are they avoiding scrutiny all together ? 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Flattening the curve? Where have I heard that before.

 

Let's see what the idiot says tonight. They've constantly been moving the goalposts and certain members of SAGE have publicly come out in favour of forever masks and social distancing, so you can understand why there is a lack of trust.

I think you overestimate the level of control SAGE have over the government. I'm sure some will be pushing an overly cautious approach but if you think a Tory government is going to listen to the minority of that group about proposals to keep the economy shut for longer then you're barking up the wrong tree. Johnson has a pretty solid track record of ignoring SAGE so far anyway....

[steviewevie]

16 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think you overestimate the level of control SAGE have over the government. I'm sure some will be pushing an overly cautious approach but if you think a Tory government is going to listen to the minority of that group about proposals to keep the economy shut for longer then you're barking up the wrong tree. Johnson has a pretty solid track record of ignoring SAGE so far anyway....

I think he's been listening to them a lot more this year, and has benefited from it (and the vaccines of course).