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When will this shit end?

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12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

How is this possible?

Because a lot of people think differently to you. Starmer has some work to do to win back all those voters lost to the tories...

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12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Because a lot of people think differently to you. Starmer has some work to do to win back all those voters lost to the tories...

The same poll had starmer at +5 for best PM and boris at -2...

 

I wouldn't get too worked up over the odd poll

 

 

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19 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Because a lot of people think differently to you. Starmer has some work to do to win back all those voters lost to the tories...

Obviously. Don’t worry. 
 

 

20 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

We've moved on from Cummings and corona is over. 

Looks like their plan has worked then!

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

The same poll had starmer at +5 for best PM and boris at -2...

 

I wouldn't get too worked up over the odd poll

 

 

That’s interesting, I think that shows how entrenched the voters are in their dislike of Labour over the last 2 years. 

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On 5/31/2020 at 7:52 AM, blutarsky said:

 

This is not a dig at you by any means, but I’ve seen this tweet everywhere and had it sent to me a few times. I think it’s grossly misleading and helping to fuel the unease and hysteria about easing lockdown.

Firstly let’s look at Spain, only 2 new deaths? Well not exactly. Arguably one of the hardest hit countries their reporting was all all over the shop. They are now going back through their data and reattributing deaths to when they actually happened on the timeline, there is also a lag in reporting deaths so they aren’t reporting them now until they can add them accurately to the timeline:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-27/coronavirus-death-toll-in-spain-rises-by-283-but-only-35-fatalities-recorded-last-week.html%3foutputType=amp

you can see they recently reported a significant minus figure because they backloaded 2000 deaths to their actual dates:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-27/coronavirus-death-toll-in-spain-rises-by-283-but-only-35-fatalities-recorded-last-week.html%3foutputType=amp
 

Italy, on May 4th pretty much one month ago they eased their lockdown to allow the following: 4 million people went back to work with an uplift in public transport use of 30% that morning. Bars and restaurants could offer takeaway services, people could go and visit relatives and partners in their own regions:

 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/italy-exit-coronavirus-lockdown-restrictions

Gyms, bars, restaurants and hairdressers are all now open in Italy, it will be at least a month or longer until that happens here.

Both Spain and Italy looking to open up tourism in the next few weeks.

So going back to May 4th how many deaths Did Italy have at that point, the point realistically we are at now but arguably they had relaxed more? Between 3-4th May they still added 200 deaths.

I’m not saying we aren’t easing things to early and we shouldn’t still be cautious, but realistically we are doing nothing different and are in no different position to most comparable countries relatively speaking.

I think there is so much noise around this, with scaring the shit out of us becoming the latest version of click bait that it’s important to try and maintain a sense of perspective and not panic yet. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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As much as there is little to be gained from obsessing over polls at this point, I do think there's some encouraging signs for Labour. Starmer has had a good crisis, after a shaky start (calling for clarity on ending lockdown was not where consensus was), he has struck the right note consistently and media attempts to smear him, the absurd story about him buying his Mum some land to keep rescue donkeys backfired, entirely misjudging the public mood. The current crisis has also taken some of the media heat off of Labour, coverage of internal factional spats within the party and the spurious EHRC investigation are not cutting through as the right would want them to, if at all. 

After the financial crisis the Tories were able to sell austerity by exploiting the public's lack of understanding of the complexities of the financial system by pushing lines that were clearly not true (the economy is like a household budget, this was caused by Labour overspending etc) but received little challenge and the broad left, still reeling from the failure of the anti-war movements of the early 2000s was sluggish to confront the political nature of the crisis. They won't be able to pull the same trick twice. Small state, laissez faire government is going to be become a lot less popular over the next few years and Labour will be well placed to challenge that. 

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16 minutes ago, SalviaPlath said:

As much as there is little to be gained from obsessing over polls at this point, I do think there's some encouraging signs for Labour. Starmer has had a good crisis, after a shaky start (calling for clarity on ending lockdown was not where consensus was), he has struck the right note consistently and media attempts to smear him, the absurd story about him buying his Mum some land to keep rescue donkeys backfired, entirely misjudging the public mood. The current crisis has also taken some of the media heat off of Labour, coverage of internal factional spats within the party and the spurious EHRC investigation are not cutting through as the right would want them to, if at all. 

After the financial crisis the Tories were able to sell austerity by exploiting the public's lack of understanding of the complexities of the financial system by pushing lines that were clearly not true (the economy is like a household budget, this was caused by Labour overspending etc) but received little challenge and the broad left, still reeling from the failure of the anti-war movements of the early 2000s was sluggish to confront the political nature of the crisis. They won't be able to pull the same trick twice. Small state, laissez faire government is going to be become a lot less popular over the next few years and Labour will be well placed to challenge that. 

I agree and I hope the proves to be the case.

Some of my family who, not to be rude to them (they would admit it), are a bit naive when it comes to politics, have been bemused by the government's response in the past couple of weeks. They don't understand why they're throwing the doors open, or how the care home situation has become so dire. I think they're now really starting to realise what a Conservative government is all about and they're looking to the USA to see where we'd end up with more years of cuts and less government intervention.

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https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

Edited by st dan

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22 minutes ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

I hope that’s true. So as we’ve seen with many other viruses, literally burning out eventually.

I agree we all need to try and seek some balance, I personally need to avoid twitter as much as possible

Would be interested to get forum legend @Toilet Duck’s opinion on it though.

Could this be a possible reason why infections are remaining fairly flat and constant from one week to the next in England now, but deaths are still falling? Or am I just completely making that up?

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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36 minutes ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

That's bullshit. I'm sticking to the apocolypitic stuff only.

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Pubs open near me Harrogate Pubs

Can you believe it!  Police went along and did nothing apart from asking people to stand 2m apart, which then seems to have been ignored.  They were serving take out pints and then crowds just stood outside, or on The Stray (a park) across the road drinking.  One bar even put chairs and tables out in the park over the road.

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

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5 minutes ago, Northtim said:

Pubs open near me Harrogate Pubs

Can you believe it!  Police went along and did nothing apart from asking people to stand 2m apart, which then seems to have been ignored.  They were serving take out pints and then crowds just stood outside, or on The Stray (a park) across the road drinking.  One bar even put chairs and tables out in the park over the road.

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

weather goes a bit shit from wednesday

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3 minutes ago, Northtim said:

Pubs open near me Harrogate Pubs

Can you believe it!  Police went along and did nothing apart from asking people to stand 2m apart, which then seems to have been ignored.  They were serving take out pints and then crowds just stood outside, or on The Stray (a park) across the road drinking.  One bar even put chairs and tables out in the park over the road.

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

I think with the way the government have eased lockdown, their only concern is keeping people outdoors rather than indoors. Therefore the police have probably been instructed to do nothing about people gathering outside less than 2m apart.

It is clear the government know more than us when it comes to this virus which they are not revealing. To me, it looks like the main risks from this virus come from the spread of the virus in indoor areas, rather than outside. So, they are probably not too worried about people socialising in outdoor areas as long as people don’t start moving their gatherings indoors. 

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10 minutes ago, Northtim said:

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

I think al fresco drinking is the plan for pubs in the near future. Lots of temporary pedestrianisation of city centres. Some pubs may have been granted early permission as a test for this but not made it public for obvious reasons. 

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1 hour ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

I agree. I'm positive. Doesn't do me any benefit whatsoever to be all gloom and doom.

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1 hour ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

Presumably with the spread only happening within countries because of borders being closed this would be Italy getting lucky? And we can just hope for the same here with no guarantees? Waiting for our oracle Toilet Duck 😂

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1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I hope that’s true. So as we’ve seen with many other viruses, literally burning out eventually.

I agree we all need to try and seek some balance, I personally need to avoid twitter as much as possible

Would be interested to get forum legend @Toilet Duck’s opinion on it though.

Could this be a possible reason why infections are remaining fairly flat and constant from one week to the next in England now, but deaths are still falling? Or am I just completely making that up?

Howdy, I honestly don’t know if the virus is “weakening”, but there is certainly a lot less of it about at the moment (which may explain lower viral loads)...I still think summer will have some impact on it (just based on what happens to other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses in general). There’s lots of people out and about now, but I do see significant changes in behaviour (there’s always some idiots, but many are being fairly sensible) so I too am optimistic (have been for a while, though to be fair, it’s my default position!...not based on blind optimism, but borne of a belief that if things are bad, we can always do something and change them). Really the key is having a robust surveillance system now...post-suppression you get the chance to go back to containment if you do it correctly, so that’s where the effort should be focussed and where clear information helps the public to play a role too. Still a good way to go, but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel!

 

edit: when looking at infection rates, there’s some important things to consider...look at the % positive tests, I haven’t paid close attention to the UK, but here, with similar numbers of tests per week, the % positive is steadily dropping. Also, where the positive cases are. Clusters in healthcare settings still pose a risk, but it’s not the same as chasing a virus that is rapidly spreading through the community. Again, haven’t seen breakdowns for the UK, but here, community transmission was all but extinguished a couple of weeks ago and the 50 or so cases per day we still get are in high risk settings...it was the same in most other places, so if not now, then soon it will be the same in the UK. Different countries have different capacities to deal with cases. France reckons 4000 cases per day is manageable for them, so, the UK will have a number in mind too. Again, if hospital admissions/ICU admissions are below trigger points, then things will open back up (and you can make your own personal assessment of risk and do things you are comfortable with, while avoiding things you think are too risky). If it starts to spread freely again and ICU admissions spike because of that, then a step back will occur. I was on a conference call with a doctor from London about 5 weeks ago (he had picked up COVID from a patient), but he said their hospital admissions had fallen off a cliff (ICU still had a fair few people in, but not full and admissions were way down). So, if that was the case on the ground in London 5 weeks or so ago, I’d expect it to be significantly better by now.

Edited by Toilet Duck
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57 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy, I honestly don’t know if the virus is “weakening”, but there is certainly a lot less of it about at the moment (which may explain lower viral loads)...I still think summer will have some impact on it (just based on what happens to other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses in general). There’s lots of people out and about now, but I do see significant changes in behaviour (there’s always some idiots, but many are being fairly sensible) so I too am optimistic (have been for a while, though to be fair, it’s my default position!...not based on blind optimism, but borne of a belief that if things are bad, we can always do something and change them). Really the key is having a robust surveillance system now...post-suppression you get the chance to go back to containment if you do it correctly, so that’s where the effort should be focussed and where clear information helps the public to play a role too. Still a good way to go, but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel!

 

edit: when looking at infection rates, there’s some important things to consider...look at the % positive tests, I haven’t paid close attention to the UK, but here, with similar numbers of tests per week, the % positive is steadily dropping. Also, where the positive cases are. Clusters in healthcare settings still pose a risk, but it’s not the same as chasing a virus that is rapidly spreading through the community. Again, haven’t seen breakdowns for the UK, but here, community transmission was all but extinguished a couple of weeks ago and the 50 or so cases per day we still get are in high risk settings...it was the same in most other places, so if not now, then soon it will be the same in the UK. Different countries have different capacities to deal with cases. France reckons 4000 cases per day is manageable for them, so, the UK will have a number in mind too. Again, if hospital admissions/ICU admissions are below trigger points, then things will open back up (and you can make your own personal assessment of risk and do things you are comfortable with, while avoiding things you think are too risky). If it starts to spread freely again and ICU admissions spike because of that, then a step back will occur. I was on a conference call with a doctor from London about 5 weeks ago (he had picked up COVID from a patient), but he said their hospital admissions had fallen off a cliff (ICU still had a fair few people in, but not full and admissions were way down). So, if that was the case on the ground in London 5 weeks or so ago, I’d expect it to be significantly better by now.

Thanks TD, insightful as always.

I’m inclined to agree as far as being positive. We’re being bombarded with viewpoints about this and the papers and the media seem to revel in reporting on crowded beaches. I think this creates a sense of unease amongst people. As you say there will always be idiots and people who didn’t follow the rules, but in the main people are still adhering to them, and I like to think of it the other way and think about all the things that aren’t currently happening that would be normally and were before lockdown. All the empty offices, sporting events, festivals etc. The tap has still only been loosened slightly.

I know you’ve not been following the U.K. but I think one major cause for concern for people is this idea that there are still 8000 infections a day:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser
 

However that’s based on projections and predictions on the actual data. Our actual last positive infection test figure was 1900 positive cases, which is in line with what you say about France, and I assume the numbers you quote for Ireland are based on actual tests, not projections so it’s all relative?

 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton

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I don’t particularly agree with much Nicola Sturgeon says, I am totally against breaking up the union, but I am so happy to hear her having a go at those who went against the lockdown measures here at the weekend. Far too many got into cars and drove more than the recommended 5 miles. Nearly 800 dispersal of groups were done by the police, Loch Lomond was very busy.  She is emphasising the need to keep up with the hand washing, distancing, mask wearing etc. Her briefings are a lot clearer and to the point than we hear elsewhere.  All with the threat that if folk don’t comply that the recommendations will be put in law. 

Hopefully Boris and co also emphasise that certain scenes over the weekend aren’t acceptable. We’ve come so far to lose it now. 

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2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Thanks TD, insightful as always.

I’m inclined to agree as far as being positive. We’re being bombarded with viewpoints about this and the papers and the media seem to revel in reporting on crowded beaches. I think this creates a sense of unease amongst people. As you say there will always be idiots and people who didn’t follow the rules, but in the main people are still adhering to them, and I like to think of it the other way and think about all the things that aren’t currently happening that would be normally and were before lockdown. All the empty offices, sporting events, festivals etc. The tap has still only been loosened slightly.

I know you’ve not been following the U.K. but I think one major cause for concern for people is this idea that there are still 8000 infections a day:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser
 

However that’s based on projections and predictions on the actual data. Our actual last positive infection test figure was 1900 positive cases, which is in line with what you say about France, and I assume the numbers you quote for Ireland are based on actual tests, not projections so it’s all relative?

 

Hi Nobby, yes, our case numbers are actual cases, not projected cases (I did see 8000 per day quoted somewhere for the UK and was confused as I thought it was closer to 2k and holding firm). If all of those are in high risk settings and not as a result of community transmission, then testing and contact tracing can (in theory) contain them. I was a little shocked at the level of training contact tracers in the UK were reported to have received (about 30 mins, a FAQ, a script and an instruction to look at videos on YouTube), whereas my own institution has trained about half of the contact tracers in Ireland and it was a week of face-to-face (socially distanced!) training. But whether that is actually the case or whether this was for extra bodies to bolster the system was not entirely clear from the reporting. I’m sure there must be some properly trained folk involved at some level. 

you are correct though, loads of things that would be happening still aren’t, so mostly it’s lower risk activities that are opening up again. I took the little one out for a ride on her bike yesterday. Our local park was packed, but it was of clusters of either families or 3/4 friends sitting on the grass a good 10-20 feet from each other. I saw nothing risky and found it uplifting to see people getting back to some sort of normality in a low risk way. The beach is also packed, but everyone is leaving plenty of space for each other, and queuing at shops etc is well organised, less browsing, and people are moving through quickly. So, at the moment, I don’t see vast amounts of high risk activity that could lead to a massive resurgence...unless containment in high risk settings is mismanaged. Personally, I’d leave the schools closed for the sake of a few weeks, and heaving pubs/clubs/gigs are still a way off. But now is the time to take stock of what we know about this specific virus and adapt our public heath plans from the influenza-driven protocols we used the outset, to coronavirus-specific plans to continue easing back to normal.

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People queueing for up to 4 hours to get into Ikea...shows people are desperate to get back to doing normal stuff like going to shops, but the actual shopping experience is not going to be normal or fun.

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6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

People queueing for up to 4 hours to get into Ikea...shows people are desperate to get back to doing normal stuff like going to shops, but the actual shopping experience is not going to be normal or fun.

It’s probably lovely once you’re in there... just not the four hour queue bit.

Ive been to my local garden centre once, about a 20 minute queue to get in, but a significantly nicer experience once you’re in there. 

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23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

People queueing for up to 4 hours to get into Ikea...shows people are desperate to get back to doing normal stuff like going to shops, but the actual shopping experience is not going to be normal or fun.

Just saw the IKEA queue on telly there, massive line snaking round and round the car park.  

Can you imagine the social distancing queue to get into Glasto? The Gate A queue would start at Street/Glastonbury shopping centre!

Quick edit:  thinking about it and on @crazyfool1 advice, it would probably stretch to J23 of the M5! With a three times round the Tor slalom. 

Edited by Ayrshire Chris
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