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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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54 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

Yep, same with the organisation I volunteer through. And they cover Blackburn too so really need to get things going. But they are struggling to fill the shifts they have now, never mind any future extra shifts. At my centre I get the impression it's a handful of volunteers plugging a lot of the gaps, doing double shifts sometimes. They've started psoting shifts on the goodSam app which they had never needed to before. Don't know if it's helping. There's been times when there are no volunteer marshals so security and cleaners are helping out. I'm not going to be doing any shifts for a while either. Just gone back to full time for the first time since March last year (first time working at all since December). Bit of a shock to the system, (I'm a broken man. 42 hours a week seems massive!) not helped by the fact we've gone from zero to a million mph over night. And the good will from the customers we had last summer has pretty much disappeared. 

It seems a bit of a shame that they didn't have the vaccines and ability to ramp up a few months back when certainly loads of volunteers on SJA couldn't get any shifts. There would have been more people on furlough then too. I'm also on Good Sam and there are loads on there right now.

Hope being back at work gets easier!

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1 hour ago, chestwig said:

Are you joking?

Half the people in Bolton hospitals had had the vaccine.

Much of what is being reported as a covid case is not actually a severe vaccine reaction

 

Nutter Alert

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5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

Came to send this. Can’t believe ‘up to 50 deaths a day’ is being described as a bad case scenario. At what stage do we accept that level and what are the proportionate restrictions for that low a fatality rate?

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I think there are about 5 possible trajectories for the pandemic over the next few weeks, they are as follows:

 

1. Vaccines catch up with the surge in cases over the next 7-10 days, and we unlock as planned on 21st June. 20% likelihood.

 

2. Cases continue to rise but slowly and well within NHS capacity and may begin signs of a plateau. The 21st June unlocking is fudged to remove some elements, but certainly not cancelled. This is IMO the most likely move and I'll outline more about what I expect below. 50% likelihood

 

3. Cases continue rising and we see a sustained jump in hospitalisations, albeit still well within NHS capacity. If this happens then I think we could see step 4 pushed back for a few weeks to buy more time for the vaccine programme to catch up. This scenario is relatively likely. 20% likelihood.

 

4. Cases start rising even worse and there are early signs of the NHS getting into a spot of trouble, and we have to row back a step to close indoor hospitality, ban indoor socialising and reinstate the rule of 6 outdoors to prevent a big summer wave. This is fairly unlikely although not impossible. 9% likelihood.

 

5. Cases rise exponentially putting the NHS under severe pressure and we need to go back towards something resembling a lockdown. Highly unlikely. 1%

 

Now, focussing on the 2nd option which I believe to be highly likely. We could see a further relaxation of the rules on 21st June that still stops short of scrapping all restrictions on social contact. I think it will look as follows:

 

Indoor Social Contact

People will be able to meet indoors in groups of 12, or 4 households of any size. This will represent a doubling of the current indoor gathering limits, but there will be no immediate return to full blown house parties.

Outdoor Social Contact

The current limit of 30 will be scrapped for private outdoor gatherings. People will be allowed to meet outdoors in groups with unlimited size.

Hospitality

No change to the current rules on hospitality, so the 1m+ social distancing will remain in force unfortunately. However, group sizes will be governed by the increased limits outlined above. Ordering at the bar will remain against the rules for now.

Outdoor events

In line with the removal of limits on outdoor social contact, outdoor events of any size will be allowed to go ahead.

Nightclubs/Indoor events

Nightclubs will NOT be allowed to open on 21st June and indoor gigs will still need to be socially distanced for now.

Face coverings

Face coverings will remain mandatory in most indoor public spaces.

Social distancing

1m+ rule will remain in place between strangers but hugging family and friends will continue to be allowed.

Weddings and life events

I think these restrictions may need to go on a bit, weddings are pretty big superspreader events given if you go to a wedding with 100 people (as opposed to sitting in a pub with 100 customers) you are more likely to do the rounds chatting to everyone, hugging everyone etc.

 

Nothing like hedging your bets, eh?  I thought it was just the 'Dartford Sniffles' to you and that the elderly were just going to die anyway?

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Nothing like hedging your bets, eh?  I thought it was just the 'Dartford Sniffles' to you and that the elderly were just going to die anyway?

 

 

 

 

As much as I believe the government should have scrapped restrictions ages ago, we need to be pragmatic about what they will do.

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6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Yay....ideal scenario.

I assume you are being sarcastic, but 50 deaths a day is absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of the UK’s population unless you are proposing zero Covid (which is not gonna happen?). 

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34 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

It seems a bit of a shame that they didn't have the vaccines and ability to ramp up a few months back when certainly loads of volunteers on SJA couldn't get any shifts. There would have been more people on furlough then too. I'm also on Good Sam and there are loads on there right now.

Hope being back at work gets easier!

Thanks! At least it should get quiet again in November, eh

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16 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

As much as I believe the government should have scrapped restrictions ages ago, we need to be pragmatic about what they will do.

So what you believe is not pragmatic?

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13 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

50 deaths a day is absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of the UK’s population unless you are proposing zero Covid

Nope. never thought zero Covid was a possibility or an aim. 

We can however get to fewer than 50 deaths a day with a combination of better treatments, a mass vax programme and better public health measures over a decent timescale. Going to take years though.

 

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

As far as I'm concerned the pandemic has been over as a public health crisis in the UK since 8th March so restrictions on individual freedom are no longer necessary or proportionate.

OK Boris.

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1 hour ago, philipsteak said:

Yep, same with the organisation I volunteer through. And they cover Blackburn too so really need to get things going. But they are struggling to fill the shifts they have now, never mind any future extra shifts.

That's Darwenism.

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10 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Nope. never thought zero Covid was a possibility or an aim. 

We can however get to fewer than 50 deaths a day with a combination of better treatments, a mass vax programme and better public health measures over a decent timescale. Going to take years though.

 

I don’t think it would take years, as all adults will have received two doses by the end of this year if not a lot before that for starters! What else can we do from there besides boosters? 

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11 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

As far as I'm concerned the pandemic has been over as a public health crisis in the UK since 8th March so restrictions on individual freedom are no longer necessary or proportionate.

I wouldn't go that far but I do think there is an element of panic, especially with fake SAGE trying to get the roadmap extended by 2 months.

 I personally thought the road map was too cautious and that we should reopen as promised and on time on June 21st. 

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6 hours ago, ErnestWorthing said:

You can't isolate in a care home.  It's a poorly ventilated building full of extremely vulnerable people sharing care staff.  One case of covid in a care home will go through like wildfire, infect and kill many people.  There is no way people should have been released from hospitals where it was rife into care homes without testing negative.  It is an absolute national scandal if Hancock knew untested people were being sent from hospital into care homes, if he lied about it he should be facing criminal sanctions. 

Change the word care home for hospital and you have the same scenario. I don't know if testing capacity could have been increased. I imagine if it could have been, it would have been as the government was funding any placement out of hospital to free capacity. Care home managers were refusing to accept patients back from hospital who had not contact with covid and showed no signs of covid, some of whom them went on to develop covid and die in hospital. All the while care home managers continued to pocket their residents extortionate weekly expenses. You can blame this incompetent government for a lot the past year. Some of the blame here needs to fall on care home managers who could have and should have done much more

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2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

WFH guidance could remain too according to that story which seems wise if they want to open up more. 

Purely selfish perspective but face masks and WFH to sacrifice for full reopening elsewhere definitely works for me!

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4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Absolutely - pret vs the entire nighttime economy sounds like a n brainer to me 

 

2 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Purely selfish perspective but face masks and WFH to sacrifice for full reopening elsewhere definitely works for me!

Agreed. I had a feeling face masks would stay through the summer as a just in case type of thing that doesn’t really cost anything. 

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3 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Purely selfish perspective but face masks and WFH to sacrifice for full reopening elsewhere definitely works for me!

I find it mad anyone would disagree. Masks on public transport/shops, WFH some times. Cut down on the amount of interactions you have people during a normal week but still have the ability to go the shops/pub/restaurant/gigs/matches.

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