Jump to content

When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

Recommended Posts

Just now, zahidf said:

Lol so from 20/30% mroe transmissible to 67% all of a sudden? 

Numbers are too low to know for sure. But it doesn't seem to be spreading to all areas 

Yeah. Obviously I hope it’s wrong but the data today suggests a 67% transmission advantage. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Radiochicken said:

If we have to backtrack to any previous stages now we’ve opened up, it’d be pretty devastating tbh.

It would be but I don't think we'll backtrack, possibly stay at this level for a bit longer.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yeah. Obviously I hope it’s wrong but the data today suggests a 67% transmission advantage. 

I'm slightly confused - where did you see / how did you extrapolate a 67% transmission advantage into an R rate of 7.5? I'm struggling to join the dots.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it's also important to remember that the various financial schemes are in place till September as well. They were extended for possibilities like this, where if we need to extend a portion of the roadmap then the businesses effected will still be able to get support.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Sheesh. The latest data dump suggests that the Indian variant has an R0 of 7.5. Now the worst that might mean for us in the UK is an extra month under the current step 3 measures while the first dose rollout is completed, but a virus with that level of transmissibility is going to absolutely rip through the third world.

 

We need to go ahead and donate our J&J supply and the unused AZ vaccines to covax. Fast. 

Link ?

With respect I call bullshit.  Thats a huge leap for a virus.

Edited by Barry Fish
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, incident said:

I'm slightly confused - where did you see / how did you extrapolate a 67% transmission advantage into an R rate of 7.5? I'm struggling to join the dots.

 

The R number of the original Chinese variant was in the region of 3. Then the Kent variant came along and was roughly 60% more transmissible (R0 around 4.6) causing our devastating second wave in the UK. The Indian variant is in turn 67% more transmissible than this, suggesting R0 is around 7.5.

 

Note that R0 is the rate that the virus spreads in a completely non-immune, unvaccinated population with no restrictions in place at all. The actual R number is only slightly above 1 in the UK because:

 

- 75% of the adult population have antibodies 

 

- Whilst we aren’t in lockdown anymore, there are still some mid-level measures in place to keep the spread down. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The R number of the original Chinese variant was in the region of 3. Then the Kent variant came along and was roughly 60% more transmissible (R0 around 4.6) causing our devastating second wave in the UK. The Indian variant is in turn 67% more transmissible than this, suggesting R0 is around 7.5.

 

Note that R0 is the rate that the virus spreads in a completely non-immune, unvaccinated population with no restrictions in place at all. The actual R number is only slightly above 1 in the UK because:

 

- 75% of the adult population have antibodies 

 

- Whilst we aren’t in lockdown anymore, there are still some mid-level measures in place to keep the spread down. 

Where you getting 67% from 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This bullshit all has to stop at some point. If the Covid death rate is ground down as low as it's likely to get (given that almost no-one is still banging the Zero Covid tambourine, and it's therefore generally accepted that we are going to have to live with it as an endemic disease,) and we also have a reasonable degree of confidence that getting rid of these remaining countermeasures will not lead to a major resurgence of serious illness and death, then that's the time to burn the security blanket and get on with a normal life.

Personally I reckon foreign travel restrictions will be around for a while, and masks may survive on public transport and in clinical settings, but I'm expecting and hoping all the rest of the rules to go in the dustbin where they belong next month. We ought not to be expected to spend half our lives walking around in gags, and having to decide which friends we can and cannot have dinner with, indefinitely.

 

Life is not risk free. Government is not about eliminating risk.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

its from that times article? i havent seen anything to support that. And id be very surprised myself

 

7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Where you getting 67% from 

This is from the PHE data that is released today. Hopefully it’s just down to vaccine dodging in certain areas rather than an inherent transmission advantage, unless they’re suggesting India has already had 87.5% of the population infected/jabbed which is highly unlikely 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

This is from the PHE data that is released today. Hopefully it’s just down to vaccine dodging in certain areas rather than an inherent transmission advantage, unless they’re suggesting India has already had 87.5% of the population infected/jabbed which is highly unlikely 

thats isnt really what that data says. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Oh really? I’ve seen that figure discussed by people I respect on twitter (I mean really good covid centrists like BristOliver and Declamare. Not fake SAGE type weirdos) 

Ah I've seen it. It's only one report though. I wouldn't get too excited by it, could be any number of reasons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

23 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Oh really? I’ve seen that figure discussed by people I respect on twitter (I mean really good covid centrists like BristOliver and Declamare. Not fake SAGE type weirdos) 

 

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Ah I've seen it. It's only one report though. I wouldn't get too excited by it, could be any number of reasons.

Links?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a non starter this argument. People were discharged from hospitals in open spaces where people are clinically vulnerable back into care homes where they can isolate, and where people aren't extremely unwell. If anything more funding should have been chucked at ensuring safety in care homes rather than increased testing capacity 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

It's a non starter this argument. People were discharged from hospitals in open spaces where people are clinically vulnerable back into care homes where they can isolate, and where people aren't extremely unwell. If anything more funding should have been chucked at ensuring safety in care homes rather than increased testing capacity 

It’s really not a non-starter, if true the Health Secretary was saying that patients would be tested before going back into Care Homes knowing that the testing capacity wasn’t there to do so. So many elderly people died as a result.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...