When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

Bloody indy sage .... 🙂 

[efcfanwirral]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

we're 10 days from when they review because that's a week before June 21st...not sure if that's worst case...

No I meant since bolton's peak, so the time we'd logically expect their peak hospitalisations would be now ish

Edited June 4, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I'm agreeing with Indie SAGE, perhaps Christina's spiked my vaccine from this morning....

Genuinely though I'm pleased to see they're not suggesting anything harsh or rolling back and they seem to be supportive of opening up, now if the government could properly shut the borders that would be great 

They are saying to not progress with the roadmap on June21st...and then also have that extra stuff, diapers on children's faces etc.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

No I meant since bolton's peak, so the time we'd logically expect their peak hospitalisations would be now ish

ah, right. Sorry.

[stuartbert two hats]

28 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Hard to overstate how important this is.  We know that the infection rate in Bolton is dropping, but they still have a high number of weekly infections in absolute terms - but the net flow in and out of the hospitals is negative.  This bodes very, very well for the NHS being able to cope with this level of infections.  I'd just rather not have the whole country get to that infection rate!

It's when the numbers are going up (and fast!) that it makes me most nervous - I just don't know when it's going to get under control locally, although I can't think of any reason why it should go much higher outside of Bolton.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, steviewevie said:

They are saying to not progress with the roadmap on June21st...and then also have that extra stuff, diapers on children's faces etc.

didnt I see a new diaper has signed up here .... wonder who that is ? 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

didnt I see a new diaper has signed up here .... wonder who that is ? 

yeah...saw that...someone else signed up to downvote the clique.

[rithpotter]

47 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Anyone here in Burnley?

 

I am! 😁  I'm 24 and nipped down to the hospital a couple of weeks ago, got jabbed no questions asked!

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...saw that...someone else signed up to downvote the clique.

they obviously chose the name because of the need for them at festivals .... might try one out in a few years 

[Radiochicken]

I guess gigs and nightclubs don’t exist in Wales... (being slightly facetious)

P.S. that’s Mark Drakeford talking about social distancing. 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Radiochicken

[Havors]

4 hours ago, DeanoL said:

I think what you're missing is what you just posted. The vaccines are very effective but not 100% effective. You can have both doses and still end up in hospital with COVID and die. Your chances are much, much better but vaccines are not a magic forcefield. So no, 2.5x more likely to end up in hospital regardless of vaccine or not with this new variant. We have 7.5 ICU beds per 100,000 of the population. So we have the capacity to have 0.0075% of the population in ICU at one time. So if the virus was left to spread unchecked, and you had 100% of the population infected at the same time, you would need the vaccine to be 99.9925% effective at preventing hospitalisation.

They're good. They're not that good.

The sad truth of it is there's nothing we can do about those hospitalisations - they're going to happen, if the vaccine doesn't work for you, you'll eventually get COVID and if it puts you in hospital there's nothing you do about that. But we do need to make sure there's room for you in hospital to give you the best chance of being okay!

You keep saying I'm assuming the vaccines don't work, and I think the issue is actually I'm assuming they work to the 99.5% efficiency they do in the best case, but you're assuming 100%, which is wrong.

It's wearing thin now, you are talking nonsense sorry. You would never be able to infect 100% of the population... even when there was no vaccine.

All your "calculations" are based on nonsense numbers and ridiculous assumptions totally ignoring so many factors its ridiculous. You are not taking into account so many things and pulling numbers out of your ass. You are assuming everyone has an equal chance of catching the virus and it being the same seriousness for everyone... age 1 to 101. Its nonsense. 

Don't forget about.... Natural immunity, Countless asymptomatic people, Reduced transmission from vaccines, Natural reduced risk of serious illness due to age, Reduced severity of illness from vaccines, seasonal effects. 

Sorry if that comes across rude im just banging my head against the wall here. 

 

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

56 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Indie SAGE statement on the UK government roadmap for ending all restrictions

4 Jun 2021 | Front Page, Lockdowns, Mitigation measures, Recent reports, Short statements

We are currently witnessing a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in England. Public Health England figures released on 3^rd June suggest that the Delta variant has spread widely across the UK and is continuing to spread, that it has higher infectivity than the previous circulating variant, and that it is more likely to cause disease and hospitalization. There is increasing evidence that vaccine efficacy is compromised against this variant, and that individuals remain at particular risk until they receive two doses. There is some evidence that protection from two doses wanes after a number of months, particularly in the elderly. Meanwhile, cases are surging in school aged children, and spreading into the community, particularly amongst those yet to be fully vaccinated. It is clear that the link between infection and hospitalization has not yet been fully broken.

We wish to avoid another full lockdown, which will damage education and people’s wellbeing as well as the economy. This requires reversing the growth in cases. The UK government will announce their plans for future pandemic control on 14^th June. As things stand, it is very difficult to justify progressing with the last stage of the roadmap, scheduled for 21^st June, a point that should be made now to modify current false hopes.

In addition, there are a number of steps which should be implemented immediately to reduce current levels of transmission, including:

1. Strengthening financial and practical support to those requiring isolation following symptoms or a positive test, or for those in contact with positive testing individuals;
2. Ensuring adequate ventilation and infection control measures within indoor venues (e.g. schools, workplaces, hospitality), with rigorous monitoring, certification of venues, and  sanctions where these measures are not undertaken;
3. Reinstating face coverings for secondary school children, and providing resources to enhance classroom ventilation
4. Doing away with the red/amber/green travel stratification and implementing comprehensive border control with managed quarantine, in order to avoid the importation of novel variants and the exportation of UK infections;
5. Further accelerating vaccine rollout, and ensuring completion of two doses, to provide protection from infection. Boosters for vulnerable populations should be considered urgently by JCVI;
6. Adequately resourcing the global vaccine initiative, to ensure control of transmission worldwide.

Wtf.... I find myself agreeing with fake SAGE 

[JoeyT]

Doesn't look too bad...

 

[hodgey123]

9 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Doesn't look too bad...

 

Was thinking this, but then surely it makes sense given the fact we know the vast, vast majority of cases at the moment are in school settings, and as kids do not get as ill with COVID, they are very unlikely to need hospital treatment so their cases do not translate into hospitalisation. The previous waves' issue was that kids would inevitably infect their parents who were more likely to be hospitalised, but that does not seem to have happened here with their parents now vaccinated (you would assume)? 

I also think that independent SAGE seem to be really honing in now on school infections given the PHE briefing yesterday, and how long COVID is a concern/we can't sacrifice the kids. Maybe that is why Boris was optimistic - he is happy to roll the dice on long COVID in some kids (a very small likelihood it must be said) or some school closures if hospitalisations do not look to be increasing sharply?

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Ozanne

[Crazyfool01]

6238 cases 

[Ozanne]

Generally speaking hospital admissions won’t be seen from these increased cases (if they do) for another 2 weeks. Taking that into account I feel they will push back the 21st relaxation. 

[st dan]

Think it’s clear that the main thing driving cases is people meeting indoors at home (as we’ve always known). Wonder if it’s really worth holding back the rest of the reopening if they’re going to continue to allow people to meet indoors. 

[efcfanwirral]

34 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

I guess gigs and nightclubs don’t exist in Wales... (being slightly facetious)

P.S. that’s Mark Drakeford talking about social distancing. 

If that's the thinking then testing proof is the only thing that can save the events industry. Not even vaccine proof with the unknowns around new variants and spread, just simple testing 

7 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Was thinking this, but then surely it makes sense given the fact we know the vast, vast majority of cases at the moment are in school settings, and as kids do not get as ill with COVID, they are very unlikely to need hospital treatment so their cases do not translate into hospitalisation. The previous waves' issue was that kids would inevitably infect their parents who were more likely to be hospitalised, but that does not seem to have happened here with their parents now vaccinated (you would assume)? 

I also think that independent SAGE seem to be really honing in now on school infections given the PHE briefing yesterday, and how long COVID is a concern/we can't sacrifice the kids. Maybe that is why Boris was optimistic - he is happy to roll the dice on long COVID in some kids (a very small likelihood it must be said) or some school closures if hospitalisations do not look to be increasing sharply?

Yeah and that indicates when they actually think all measures should be lifted...

[Ozanne]

12 minutes ago, st dan said:

Think it’s clear that the main thing driving cases is people meeting indoors at home (as we’ve always known). Wonder if it’s really worth holding back the rest of the reopening if they’re going to continue to allow people to meet indoors. 

I think it might be, we will know more about hospitals by the end of the month. I just think it’s too soon. 

Edited June 4, 2021 by Ozanne

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I think it might be, we will know more about hospitals by the end of the month.  I just think it’s too soon. 

A middle ground where outdoor gatherings/events are OK but indoor aren't would be a perfect compromise. Especially if transport has masks still, and we know the blossoms gig was fine 

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, st dan said:

Think it’s clear that the main thing driving cases is people meeting indoors at home (as we’ve always known). Wonder if it’s really worth holding back the rest of the reopening if they’re going to continue to allow people to meet indoors. 

how is it clear?

[Ozanne]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

A middle ground where outdoor gatherings/events are OK but indoor aren't would be a perfect compromise. Especially if transport has masks still, and we know the blossoms gig was fine 

Yes 👍 I think that’s a good idea. Plus keeping the WFH message in place as well. 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

A middle ground where outdoor gatherings/events are OK but indoor aren't would be a perfect compromise. Especially if transport has masks still, and we know the blossoms gig was fine 

Well no the indoor gigs were fine from Liverpool as well. 

So the best compromise is masks on public transport, more money to isolate and WFH

[zahidf]