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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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68.3% antibodies would be enough to produce herd immunity under the original R0 of 3.0. Unfortunately, the new variant is closer to 4. The good news is that we only need to get to 75% and we were at 68.3% a few weeks ago. The vaccines are getting us closer and closer.

 

I believe we will have herd immunity by mid-May. 

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1 hour ago, JB15 said:

One thing I’d like to see the government being a bit more honest about is, what does post June 21st look like? They seem to have some ideas if they are employing covid marshals and Wimbledon is only selling tickets at 25% capacity. 
 

Yet again, they need to treat us like adults but don’t. Everyone is making plans and spending hard earned money to organise things for the summer (which is what they want even if things don’t open fully) but it’s surely time to just give a view of their plans. It’s not fair in individuals or consumers 

Totally agree!

And its not fair on business either and the knock on effect to employees and their jobs.

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

68.3% antibodies would be enough to produce herd immunity under the original R0 of 3.0. Unfortunately, the new variant is closer to 4. The good news is that we only need to get to 75% and we were at 68.3% a few weeks ago. The vaccines are getting us closer and closer.

 

I believe we will have herd immunity by mid-May. 

Wonder if that may impact the take up in vaccines of the under 30s?
I just can’t see many 18 - 24 year olds rushing for the vaccine, especially if those most vulnerable are fully vaccinated and we have hit herd immunity. 

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4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

68.3% antibodies would be enough to produce herd immunity under the original R0 of 3.0. Unfortunately, the new variant is closer to 4. The good news is that we only need to get to 75% and we were at 68.3% a few weeks ago. The vaccines are getting us closer and closer.

 

I believe we will have herd immunity by mid-May. 

Hold your horses...

Herd immunity surely includes the entire population not just adults...  

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Just now, st dan said:

Wonder if that may impact the take up in vaccines of the under 30s?
I just can’t see many 18 - 24 year olds rushing for the vaccine, especially if those most vulnerable are fully vaccinated and we have hit herd immunity. 

See my post...

Herd immunity is the entire population and not just adults.

If 18 to 24 year olds skip the vaccine then this becomes much more difficult.

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1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I didn't realise Wimbledon was only 25% capacity. So definitely social distancing still happening then, despite how some have interpreted the vague statements about it so far.

I guess they have to wait and see to some extent but it would be good to have some kind of scenario laid out. I.e. if x criteria are met then this can happen, if not then this etc.

This will be subject to the event research programme and the social distancing reviews.

It will be last minute to see how many they will be allowed to sell, my guess is they will go to 50% capacity

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11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Hold your horses...

Herd immunity surely includes the entire population not just adults...  

Not really. Children are NOT effective spreaders of covid-19. That’s not to say they don’t get it or spread it at all, but it’s at a much lower rate. 

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55 minutes ago, JB15 said:

Yep, it is a maybe but it’s what they’re currently planning for. 
 

I won’t lie, it’s mainly because I have my wedding and various days of cricket I have tickets for that I want to know what’s going on, but I can’t be alone. 
 

If you treat people like adults, they’ll largely behave like them, but the government just don’t seem to trust us 

There's going to be a review next month...we'll find out then, way things are going we could be good for binning social distancing in June.

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1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

My friend’s mum works in a pharmacy and her colleague came in the other day WITH covid symptoms. How you can do that after a whole year of this thing blows my mind. Lo and behold she indeed had covid.

So despite being vaccinated (one dose), my friends mum has caught it and passed it on to my friend and his gf and they now all have covid. The one dose that the mum has seems to have been enough to stop symptoms and she feels fine.

Tbh at this stage she should be facing a disciplinary for knowingly coming into a pharmacist job with symptoms.

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21 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

See my post...

Herd immunity is the entire population and not just adults.

If 18 to 24 year olds skip the vaccine then this becomes much more difficult.

Herd immunity isn't necessarily the entire population. It's a concept that can be applied to specific populations based on characteristics of transmission of your vector.

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23 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

See my post...

Herd immunity is the entire population and not just adults.

If 18 to 24 year olds skip the vaccine then this becomes much more difficult.

If you need x percentage for herd immunity (say 70% for arguments sake), this figure will likely be reached before the 18 to 24 year olds are offered the vaccine won’t it?  

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1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

What is all this about people in their 20s skipping the vaccine? Yes, uptake will probs be a wee bit lower but we haven't even been offered it yet ffs. Uptake will be high, over 80% in that age group I imagine. 

Yeah definitely agree, it will still be high in that group I would've thought

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20 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Not really. Children are NOT effective spreaders of covid-19. That’s not to say they don’t get it or spread it at all, but it’s at a much lower rate. 

I think you are right (but its yet to be proven scientifically) when talking about primary aged children.  All the data from primary schools backs this up.  When it did spread it was almost always traceable to staff members.  But its going to be less so in secondary school years.  Year 7s are probably on a reduced spread level like Year 6 primary but as you get to the year 10 & 11 then you would imagine they are just as capable as adults at spreading it.

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Also re herd immunity I defo think it is possible. Infact I think we are witnessing it in Israel right now.

It won't be some big bang moment and boom we have hit the threshold. Just as we continue to ease restrictions and cases stay low then we will know we are getting there. Won't be too long i imagine.

Am I right in thinking that these antibody studies don't show everyone who is immune cause you can be immune and no longer have antibodies, e.g still having a strong T cell response. 

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6 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

What is all this about people in their 20s skipping the vaccine? Yes, uptake will probs be a wee bit lower but we haven't even been offered it yet ffs. Uptake will be high, over 80% in that age group I imagine. 

Tbh even a 50% take up would be game changing in stopping onward transmission into vunerable groups in the autumn.

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13 minutes ago, st dan said:

If you need x percentage for herd immunity (say 70% for arguments sake), this figure will likely be reached before the 18 to 24 year olds are offered the vaccine won’t it?  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

0 to 24 = 19.77 million = 30% of the population 

So you would need 100% take up in all over age brackets for that to be true.

You can't just ignore the young ones when talking about herd immunity.

Edited by Barry Fish
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Just now, Barry Fish said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

0 to 24 = 19.77 million = 30% of the population 

So you would need 100% take up in all over age brackets for that to be true.

 

 

But people 18-24 (or is it 16+ I'm not sure) can get the vaccine soon enough? Why are you grouping them with kids who cannot?

Tbh, by autumn i think over 12s will probs be getting it too.

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4 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

But people 18-24 (or is it 16+ I'm not sure) can get the vaccine soon enough? Why are you grouping them with kids who cannot?

Tbh, by autumn i think over 12s will probs be getting it too.

I am grouping them because herd immunity is viewed on a whole population level and not just the adult population.  If we say 18 to 24 don't matter and then we have the ones who can't have the vaccine at the moment.   You struggle to get to herd immunity.  They do matter and they need to get jabbed.

 

For the record I think uptake in the 16 to to 24 will be high.

And yes they probably will give it to over 12s in the Autumn exactly because of my point.  Whitty and Van Tam have both talked and said exactly what I am saying.  The reasons we have trials on going is so we can get to herd immunity.

Edited by Barry Fish
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3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Hmmm

 

I don't get how they can say they are facing a "difficult problem" and then say the second line...

At the very least give people a choice.  My wife is 39 year old secondary school teacher and is desperate to get ANY vaccine while people stroke their chins over this.  She faced a higher risk when she was on the pill FFS and she faces the daily risk of working around thousand plus staff and teachers.

Edited by Barry Fish
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