When will this shit end?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

48 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

UK number of deaths up by 260 to 1019. Ugh.

Were you expecting any different though? It’s following an entirely predictable pattern of growth 

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

1 hour ago, Sasperella said:

Hi @Yoghurt on a Stick - I read the above article in the guardian yesterday. It's quite beautiful! I already recognise a lot of the things she talks about even though we're only a few days in. It is weird thinking about what lies ahead for Italy (and then us in turn)....

Hello Sasperella,

It is a beautifully written piece, but with a sting in it's tail. 

Ho hum!

 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Were you expecting any different though? It’s following an entirely predictable pattern of growth 

I'm sure you didn't mean it that way, but that comes across as pretty lacking in empathy. A bit like asking someone what they expected when their terminally ill relative died. It might be predicable, but it's still 260 deaths in a day.

[steviewevie]

UK started with the China blame game thing...signals we're in big trouble.

[whitehorses]

[efcfanwirral]

4 hours ago, steviewevie said:

UK started with the China blame game thing...signals we're in big trouble.

Do you have a link? 

My biggest concern out of this is war. USA have so many unemployed, they're going to have to find something to do with them and if China looks like gaining an economic advantage america won't stand for that. Goes without saying we'd be joining them....

[oneeye]

Woke up this morning wishing I could have put the clocks forward a year rather than an hour 😑

[reflekting]

4 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Do you have a link? 

My biggest concern out of this is war. USA have so many unemployed, they're going to have to find something to do with them and if China looks like gaining an economic advantage america won't stand for that. Goes without saying we'd be joining them....

We can't afford a war. No chance. You don't f*** with the Chinese at all. And actually they don't like going to war with anyone except their neighbours. 

[Woffy]

17 minutes ago, reflekting said:

We can't afford a war. No chance. You don't f*** with the Chinese at all. And actually they don't like going to war with anyone except their neighbours. 

Or themselves, historically speaking. 

[eFestivals]

22 hours ago, mcshed said:

Do you think there are enough people in a similar position that the treasury will be pressured into doing more?

nah, probably not. To give the govt their due they've covered most people with what they've done, but there's a million different circumstances and it's difficult to cover all possibilities.

Am a bit fucked off that I've gone out of my way to pay the highest possible taxes for 20 years and have been shafted worse than people who've been taking the piss.  

[steviewevie]

4 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Do you have a link? 

My biggest concern out of this is war. USA have so many unemployed, they're going to have to find something to do with them and if China looks like gaining an economic advantage america won't stand for that. Goes without saying we'd be joining them....

Front page of the Mail. 🙂

Maybe I should have mention that.

[eFestivals]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Front page of the Mail. 🙂

Maybe I should have mention that.

that's about trying to divert attention away from Spaffer doing fuck all for weeks as the problem got worse and worse.

We can't have the oiks joining up the dots between the Italy/Spain levels of death-rate the UK will have in 2 weeks and the many times Spaffer delayed doing the exceedingly obvious. Much better to blame china on a false basis. 

 

[steviewevie]

War is a big concern, especially with a bunch of narcissist psycho nutters running the most powerful countries at the moment.
But, I do think China really just wants to maintain the status quo and keep the people of China happy to avoid any calls for democracy and uprisings like in Hong Kong, and Trump's main concern is the economy and the election at the end of the year. There will likely be some blame game in all countries, like ours,  for a domestic audience and to divert from their own failures.
Problem is if we go into a global depression who know what will come out the other side...after the last depression it got a bit messy...

Really, what should happen is a global effort is made to better deal with this sort of thing in the future.

[Zoo Music Girl]

From the BBC today: 

UK lockdown 'could last until June'

Tough measures to tackle the outbreak in the UK have been in force for nearly a week - but a leading government adviser has warned they may need to remain in place until June.

Imperial College London Professor Neil Ferguson told the Sunday Times: “We’re going to have to keep these measures (the full lockdown) in place, in my view, for a significant period of time – probably until the end of May, maybe even early June.”

He added that even if the lockdown was lifted, people would probably still need to abide by social distancing measures for months to come.

Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove told Sky News that the length of the measures was not something that was "absolutely fixed".

He said: "It depends on all of our behaviour. If we follow the guidelines, we can deal more effectively with the spread of the disease."

[FestivalJamie]

That’s not surprising, italy have been in their “lockdown” for 5 weeks and their deaths are still rising. Germany have said they expect restrictions to be in place until mid June and they are far more in control of the situation in their country than we are here.

The only reason Hubei province can possibly get away with lifting lockdown restrictions in a week (therefore just over 2 months in lockdown), is because the Chinese lockdown is far far stricter than the lockdown any european country has experienced.

[zahidf]

I assumed with the 3 months for vulnerable people lockdown it was going to be Junesh for the lockdown ending.

[Zoo Music Girl]

I guess it's no big surprise, but does somewhat contradict some of the stuff Boris has been suggesting. Question is what will actually be relaxed restriction wise if the severe lockdown is lifted in June. Definitely won't be life back to normal.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Question is what will actually be relaxed restriction wise if the severe lockdown is lifted in June. Definitely won't be life back to normal.

it's going to take the game changer of a vaccine to get back to anywhere normal.

And if Spaffer tries it before public opinion is ready for it, he'll be killing himself politically - cos people will think "he doesn't have to worry, he's had it already". 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

25 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

That’s not surprising, italy have been in their “lockdown” for 5 weeks and their deaths are still rising. Germany have said they expect restrictions to be in place until mid June and they are far more in control of the situation in their country than we are here.

The only reason Hubei province can possibly get away with lifting lockdown restrictions in a week (therefore just over 2 months in lockdown), is because the Chinese lockdown is far far stricter than the lockdown any european country has experienced.

Your points stand, however Italy went into lockdown four weeks ago tomorrow not five, and their daily number of new cases has been dropping for a little while. Deaths will still be rising as there will be about a two week lag between the two, but these should start to drop within a week or so as well.

In theory properly followed lockdown measures should always see case numbers falling within three weeks and deaths within five, but what you do after that is the big problem.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Your points stand, however Italy went into lockdown four weeks ago tomorrow not five, and their daily number of new cases has been dropping for a little while. Deaths will still be rising as there will be about a two week lag between the two, but these should start to drop within a week or so as well.

In theory properly followed lockdown measures should always see case numbers falling within three weeks and deaths within five, but what you do after that is the big problem.

 

 

It's also worth noting that Italy only closed non essential business on Sunday, so they've had slightly different lockdown procedures to ours

[Zoo Music Girl]

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it's going to take the game changer of a vaccine to get back to anywhere normal.

And if Spaffer tries it before public opinion is ready for it, he'll be killing himself politically - cos people will think "he doesn't have to worry, he's had it already". 

Good point. Just wondering what life will look like in the not-full-lockdown-but-not-back-to-normal phase (or phases, if the theory of relaxing and reinstating severe restrictions in sequence is tested). Maybe pubs still shut but allowed to visit relatives (maybe if they've had it only)? Maybe just non essential shops open for a bit? Just schools? Obviously none of us know, just speculating on what a partial easing would look like.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Zoo Music Girl

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Good point. Just wondering what life will look like in the not-full-lockdown-but-not-back-to-normal phase (or phases, if the theory of relaxing and reinstating severe restrictions in sequence is tested). Maybe pubs still shut but allowed to visit relatives (maybe if they've had it only)? Maybe just non essential shops open for a bit? Just schools? Obviously none of us know, just speculating on what a partial easing would look like.

I suspect the antibody test will be quite a game changer. I'm guessing that it you can be certified "immune", then you can rejoin society? Although I expect some restrictions will still be in place for everyone, but if I've had it and my friend has had it, then hopefully there will be no problems in us socialising? Same for going to work/school?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

I was hoping we’d see a strategy of getting case numbers down to manageable levels, relaxing things and adopting an aggressive containment strategy. I think anything else is going to be pretty futile either way. 

[FestivalJamie]

28 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Your points stand, however Italy went into lockdown four weeks ago tomorrow not five, and their daily number of new cases has been dropping for a little while. Deaths will still be rising as there will be about a two week lag between the two, but these should start to drop within a week or so as well.

In theory properly followed lockdown measures should always see case numbers falling within three weeks and deaths within five, but what you do after that is the big problem.

Perhaps I got my facts/figures wrong however I was just trying to agree that I wouldn't be surprised if our lockdown lasted until June... there is absolutely no way that we are only going to be in lockdown for three weeks so I'm not really sure why Boris even implied that it could be possible that in 3 weeks time the measures might be able to be lifted, because it's going to be at least double that before it's sensible to even relax the measures slightly.

13 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Good point. Just wondering what life will look like in the not-full-lockdown-but-not-back-to-normal phase (or phases, if the theory of relaxing and reinstating severe restrictions in sequence is tested). Maybe pubs still shut but allowed to visit relatives (maybe if they've had it only)? Maybe just non essential shops open for a bit? Just schools? Obviously none of us know, just speculating on what a partial easing would look like.

I assume a partial easing would see non-essential businesses and retailers allowed to operate again, small gatherings with family and friends would probably be tolerated as well. Can't see it being acceptable to reopen confined spaces like cinemas, pubs and clubs and definitely mass gatherings won't be allowed by that stage. Schools unlikely to be reopening or universities as they have all gone online now and exams cancelled, so I think they are pretty much written off until September (the summer holidays start in July anyway).

If this antibody test does come about at some point soon (it has yet again been delayed due to only 70% accuracy in testing, even though it was supposed to have been distributed by now), then if it shows up you've already had the virus or been a carrier of it, you will have developed the antibodies to fight against the virus, and therefore you have a degree of "immunity" to it. They might be able to enforce some sort of system that if you test positive on the antibody test, you no longer have to work from home, you can go and visit friends and family in small groups etc and you no longer have to self isolate. All speculation though.

It's really sad but I honestly can't see any festivals happening this year, the risks associated are just too high at this point; let's see if that changes through the coming months Incase late August/September festivals might potentially become viable to run (although extremely unlikely)

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[oneeye]