When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

 

[FestivalJamie]

21 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Higher deaths because of higher case numbers, and higher case numbers because the government opened up too early in December and allowed Christmas mixing. Now "very uncertain evidence" of the new strain being more deadly gets them off the hook?

Will definitely be waiting for the real evidence of this before believing it...

I agree. I’m adamant they are just making excuses for their mistakes and reopening everything before Christmas leading to the spike in cases hospital admissions and deaths. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 2000 deaths next Wednesday, and it is the government’s fault for not treating the virus seriously, regardless of any mutations.

As for the vaccine, should be good against uk variant but we don’t know about Brazil or SA yet. We need to treat this mutations seriously and stop blowing them off like our government does otherwise this is only going to get worse if these variants really do have escape against the vaccines and reduce efficacy, which we don’t know yet.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

I agree. I’m adamant they are just making excuses for their mistakes and reopening everything before Christmas leading to the spike in cases hospital admissions and deaths. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 2000 deaths next Wednesday, and it is the government’s fault for not treating the virus seriously, regardless of any mutations.

As for the vaccine, should be good against uk variant but we don’t know about Brazil or SA yet. We need to treat this mutations seriously and stop blowing them off like our government does otherwise this is only going to get worse if these variants really do have escape against the vaccines and reduce efficacy, which we don’t know yet.

Whitty just said seemed to say it will probably still protect against strong disease rather than preventing infections overall

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Hopefully its keeping on top of it. It would be a rare disease which mutates massively away from vaccines THAT quickly

It's not a particularly fast mutating virus (not compared to something like flu), but (and it's a big but), the rate at which it is being transmitted is facilitating faster evolution than if we kept a lid on things. It's no coincidence that the major variants we have seen have emerged from big countries where it is spreading out of control (lots of easy new hosts)...variant from Spain swept Europe over the summer, UK variant now predominant in UK/Ireland and rising elsewhere, Brazil, SA...all large populations with fairly unmitigated transmission (or poorly mitigated at best)...and this facilitates change and the onwards transmission of those changes. The US probably has variants that arose there too, but the fragmented surveillance that occurs in different states could mean that they have been missed (or they have just been lucky (only in terms of the emergence of variants, not any other way!)). 

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, zahidf said:

Whitty just said seemed to say it will probably still protect against strong disease rather than preventing infections overall

But has Whitty run the scientific tests on the E484K mutation? Don’t think so. Let’s treat it with caution until we know exactly what we are dealing with.

I don’t trust Whitty anymore. I don’t trust this about higher transmissibility and higher death rate. The reason the cases and deaths are so high is because the government got us in this position by prioritising the economy at Christmas time! It’s not rocket science to figure it out. I just feel sick of it now 😞

[efcfanwirral]

 

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

I think Vallance just shat all over this - saying multiple studies with some saying no data suggesting this, then some saying it does suggest it and the conclusion is that there is a chance but nothing definitive yet. And Boris has allowed headlines like the one further up the page - could it be to scare people into some more compliance?  

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

But has Whitty run the scientific tests on the E484K mutation? Don’t think so. Let’s treat it with caution until we know exactly what we are dealing with.

I don’t trust Whitty anymore. I don’t trust this about higher transmissibility and higher death rate. The reason the cases and deaths are so high is because the government got us in this position by prioritising the economy at Christmas time! It’s not rocket science to figure it out. I just feel sick of it now 😞

Other health professionals in other countries have also found the same variance.

They are definitely using it as an excuse but there is definitely a more infectious variance.

[JoeyT]

They can try and scare people as much as they want but honestly think lockdown fatigue will strike massively mid Feb onwards with or without the governments blessing!

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, zahidf said:

Other health professionals in other countries have also found the same variance.

They are definitely using it as an excuse but there is definitely a more infectious variance.

No doubt it’s more infectious but they are acting like we are in this situation because it’s more infectious, not because of putting places like south east and London in tier 2 pre Christmas.

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, JoeyT said:

They can try and scare people as much as they want but honestly think lockdown fatigue will strike massively mid Feb onwards with or without the governments blessing!

It’s already happened. Went out for a walk today and people in groups of 4-5 sitting round on benches and chatting. Also walked past a playground with like 40 kids running round and screaming and parents mingling and chatting. Made me feel very eerie about the mixing going on in households.

[steviewevie]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

 

I think Vallance just shat all over this - saying multiple studies with some saying no data suggesting this, then some saying it does suggest it and the conclusion is that there is a chance but nothing definitive yet. And Boris has allowed headlines like the one further up the page - could it be to scare people into some more compliance?  

It might be. Maybe the problem with all this is that scientists aren't going to know anything definitive until it's too late...so they have to get current probable conclusions out there so people realise the seriousness of the situation. I don't think there's a cover up here. Maybe they're wrong and it isn't more deadly...but, what we do know is cases are high, deaths are high, and we have to stay locked down for now until hopefully vaccines improve things.

One thing is clear from that is this won't all be over in a few months.

[Crazyfool01]

more Boris bollocks .... some desperate blame shifting now ... following Priti patels blaming us yesterday .... they've fucked it and are now trying to put reasons in for the inevitable enquiry ... w*nkers !!!

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

more Boris bollocks .... some desperate blame shifting now ... following Priti patels blaming us yesterday .... they've fucked it and are now trying to put reasons in for the inevitable enquiry ... w*nkers !!!

I don’t understand why they can’t just own up to their mistakes in an honest manner and work on a sensible strategy with us to move forwards. That way we will all empathise yes they messed up but we can trust them more to move forwards. They just dig themselves a deeper hole

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

I don’t understand why they can’t just own up to their mistakes in an honest manner and work on a sensible strategy with us to move forwards. That way we will all empathise yes they messed up but we can trust them more to move forwards. They just dig themselves a deeper hole

Theres a simple solution to me to stop the mass of people out and about that is far more effective than £800 individual fines ...its the closing of workplaces that weren't deemed necessary during lockdown 1 .... all these cars on the road arent all off to illegal partys ... they are mostly going to be off to work ... and possibly just doing this and that on the way .... 

[steviewevie]

My top secret PHE source was saying back in December that the big worry was more infectious variants that the vaccines would prove ineffective against. I asked him if the politicians were being over optimistic with the all over by easter thing, and he said he thought they were right to be optimistic, I guess for morale reasons, but he wouldn't put a lot of money on it himself.

[Chapple12345]

 

[Leyrulion]

Wouldn't everyone be screaming blue murder if this new vaccine is more deadly and they'd tried to hide the information?

Personally I'm glad they're being as transparent about it as possible as early as they can. 

Science is messy and rarely gives clear cut answers, they emerge over time as more data is available, e.g. the 70% Vs 30% transmissibility of the new virus. Better to bring people along rather then try to hide it and wait until you can give a definitive response.

I think the mortality data was explained quite well with enough caveats, I'd hope the press would report sensibly but I very much doubt that.

 

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Chapple12345 said:

 

Yeah the maybe is doing a lot work there

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Leyrulion said:

if this new vaccine is more deadly

bloody hope not 🙂 

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, NHS would definitely be overwhelmed by now.

I just keep thinking though, what would we be doing if there was no sign of a vaccine being available for the forseeable...?

The NHS is already overwhelmed and has been for many months.

As soon as you start cancelling/delaying electives, diverting resources, shifting a primary focus to one subject, recording staff deaths and absences in the many thousands and the rest on the verge of burnout, then that is definitely overwhelmed in my book.

[efcfanwirral]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

It might be. Maybe the problem with all this is that scientists aren't going to know anything definitive until it's too late...so they have to get current probable conclusions out there so people realise the seriousness of the situation. I don't think there's a cover up here. Maybe they're wrong and it isn't more deadly...but, what we do know is cases are high, deaths are high, and we have to stay locked down for now until hopefully vaccines improve things.

One thing is clear from that is this won't all be over in a few months.

I just think if they're even slightly concerned about it then more stringent measures should be put in place - just saying it is pretty meaningless to me. 

I agree - 2021 is pretty much written off

[Leyrulion]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

bloody hope not 🙂 

Shit, leaked details of Boris's plan for April with Bill Gates. Must have got my 5G signals mixed up.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

I don’t understand why they can’t just own up to their mistakes in an honest manner and work on a sensible strategy with us to move forwards. That way we will all empathise yes they messed up but we can trust them more to move forwards. They just dig themselves a deeper hole

we are locked down, which appears to be working, and we are vaccinating more than pretty much anyone else in the world. That is the strategy...and hopefully it will work....They definitely fucked up late last year, they should have followed the science...and to me it feels like Johnson has been burned by that and is now following scientific advisers more...maybe it's cause Cummings has gone, who knows. They're not bullshitting about this variant, it's effects are being felt around the world. At the moment we are in the eye of the storm, inquiries will come..but we just have to follow the rules and stay safe.

[steviewevie]

My Mum has just received a vaccine appointment!

JAB MY MUM!

(I know this is the news you've all been waiting for).

[dingbat2]

2 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Wouldn't everyone be screaming blue murder if this new vaccine is more deadly and they'd tried to hide the information?

Personally I'm glad they're being as transparent about it as possible as early as they can. 

Science is messy and rarely gives clear cut answers, they emerge over time as more data is available, e.g. the 70% Vs 30% transmissibility of the new virus. Better to bring people along rather then try to hide it and wait until you can give a definitive response.

I think the mortality data was explained quite well with enough caveats, I'd hope the press would report sensibly but I very much doubt that.

 

The last paragraph is key, the media, especially on the web, just want views and clicks so will aim to sensationalise everything, they have no sense of responsibility, as the sky headline above shows. Mortality might increase from 1% to 1.3% in the over 60s. Its still highly unlikely you will die. There needs to be more balance in reporting but when websites get paid based on number of clicks, its not surprising this happens and everyone ends up panicking and the inevitable effect this must have on peoples mental health. The Government couldn't win with this one, whether they were transparent or just waited until more evidence was available before disclosing. Wait for tomorrows tabloid from pages, they will lap this up, they love this stuff, it sells papers and increases clicks