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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ugh...and we're probably not at peak deaths yet..?

Probably 2 weeks away from the peak. Looking at admissions they peaked on the 12th jan so you can expect peak deaths 2-3 weeks after this, especially with people staying in hospital longer than before.

We are also getting dangerously close to 40k in hospital as rate of admission is still higher than discharge (recovery/death).

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17 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Probably 2 weeks away from the peak. Looking at admissions they peaked on the 12th jan so you can expect peak deaths 2-3 weeks after this, especially with people staying in hospital longer than before.

We are also getting dangerously close to 40k in hospital as rate of admission is still higher than discharge (recovery/death).

There are some early signs of admissions flattening which is very early days but still a massively good sign. 

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9 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

 

whitehouse officials? or tory MPs? Anyway, of course it will be political, and I'm pretty sure Johnson will ease restrictions, especially if under pressure from his own govt and MPs...but at same time he doesn't want to fuck this thing up again. So, as everyone keeps saying, restrictions will likely start to easy gradually from March onwards...and if all goes well should feel almost normal by the summer.

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8 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Yeah. Not loads and loads, and they were socially distanced, but there were small comedy gigs, big outdoor gigs etc. Main one I can think of was the Hot Chip Margate gig - I watched online but you could buy tickets to attend as a socially distanced punter. The Jazz Cafe IN Camden and Ronnie Scott's in Soho were both open for socially distanced gigs.

I didn't go to any of them as I didn't feel it was wise personally. But they were happening. My point is just that if they can do events with restrictions last summer then I can't see why they wouldn't this summer.

Maybe in London but that shit wasn't happening in the NW apart from a few "trial" things

Will be interesting how it pans out as gigs and even festivals are booking for 2nd half of the year so there must be some confidence there for normality (and I'm not talking about those socially distanced numbers)

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I am quite surprised I have not seen any widespread coverage of the impact of those that have already been infected (and thus have antibodies) in our overall approach towards edging back to normality. From the graphic above, we have had 3.5m confirmed cases and as we know this will be much higher given the asymptomatic transmission of the virus and the inadequacies of testing at the start of the pandemic. When you add this amount to the amount already vaccinated (almost 5m), this is over 10% of the UK's population and we look a lot better from a herd immunity perspective (although of course, and sadly, c. 100k of those infected have of course died).

Has it not been considered or talked about because it would be too hard to logistically include and roll-out antibodies testing? Or because we still do not know with certainty the length of immunity built up by prior infection and the possibility of reinfection? 

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1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

I am quite surprised I have not seen any widespread coverage of the impact of those that have already been infected (and thus have antibodies) in our overall approach towards edging back to normality. From the graphic above, we have had 3.5m confirmed cases and as we know this will be much higher given the asymptomatic transmission of the virus and the inadequacies of testing at the start of the pandemic. When you add this amount to the amount already vaccinated (almost 5m), this is over 10% of the UK's population and we look a lot better from a herd immunity perspective (although of course, and sadly, c. 100k of those infected have of course died).

Has it not been considered or talked about because it would be too hard to logistically include and roll-out antibodies testing? Or because we still do not know with certainty the length of immunity built up by prior infection and the possibility of reinfection? 

probably a bit of that and the fact that the govt dont want to talk about the partial herd immunity policy they seem to have adopted .... either by design or by incompetence 

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3 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

I am quite surprised I have not seen any widespread coverage of the impact of those that have already been infected (and thus have antibodies) in our overall approach towards edging back to normality. From the graphic above, we have had 3.5m confirmed cases and as we know this will be much higher given the asymptomatic transmission of the virus and the inadequacies of testing at the start of the pandemic. When you add this amount to the amount already vaccinated (almost 5m), this is over 10% of the UK's population and we look a lot better from a herd immunity perspective (although of course, and sadly, c. 100k of those infected have of course died).

Has it not been considered or talked about because it would be too hard to logistically include and roll-out antibodies testing? Or because we still do not know with certainty the length of immunity built up by prior infection and the possibility of reinfection? 

This was a relatively recent article about it:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says

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Just now, crazyfool1 said:

probably a bit of that and the fact that the govt dont want to talk about the partial herd immunity policy they seem to have adopted .... either by design or by incompetence 

That's the thing - their incompetence has led to this one perverse 'positive' that we are surely further down the line towards normality than purely relying on vaccine numbers? Anecdotally, my sister who works as a carer for disabled adults and had COVID two weeks before Christmas was told by her work that she has been pushed to the back of the queue by 3 months at her work because of this...

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1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Thanks - will take a look. Just I guess surprised hadn't heard anyone within government or the scientific advisors explicitly mention it, but then I guess that would open the door to questions about why we have had so many cases in the first place. 

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