When will this shit end?

[Quark]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Matt Hancock talking about ‘us’ creating the AZ vaccination reminds me of John Terry celebrating the Champions League Final win fully kitted when he didn’t play. 

At least JT was involved in the season. Hancock's more like this fella

[steviewevie]

BBC article on effectiveness of single dose for the different vaccines...

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

All the major GP/PCN and mass centres near me have been open but there have been a few supply problems apparently.

If the reported figures are correct this supply rate is going vary wildly in the next few weeks bearing in mind Pfizer are reducing supply by about a third while they update their Belgian plant in late January/early Feb.

The big one is (allegedly) AZ with zero deliveries in w/c 15th Feb (convenient that given the date) and also zero deliveries w/c 14th March and vastly fluctuating delivery in the weeks in between and after before it settles down beginning of May.

Very small amounts of Moderna due to come onstream 4th April (c. 50k doses per week).

 

Hopefully we will J and J available in March 

[steviewevie]

 

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

 

Looks like the 2nd dose is a big help then for Pfizer...

[Copperface]

26 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Hopefully we will J and J available in March 

J&J hoping for authorisation in March but running around two months behind in production after experiencing production problems apparently so looking at May/June for sustained supply.

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

J&J hoping for authorisation in March but running around two months behind in production after experiencing production problems apparently so looking at May/June for sustained supply.

Lucky they've got plenty of the other two (particularly oxford) by the looks of things then!

[Copperface]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

Lucky they've got plenty of the other two (particularly oxford) by the looks of things then!

Did you read my original post?

Pfizer deliveries down by a third at end of month for at least two weeks, and wildly varied AZ deliveries including two weeks with zero/nada/noting/zilch deliveries. They might now, but that will change.

 

[Ozanne]

 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Did you read my original post?

Pfizer deliveries down by a third at end of month for at least two weeks, and wildly varied AZ deliveries including two weeks with zero/nada/noting/zilch deliveries. They might now, but that will change.

 

Yes, but on those 2 off weeks they have nearly a million Pfizer doses and the second week with 0 they have like 1.5 million Pfizer. There's also a couple weeks around there with 5 million expected doses per week. This is also all worst case scenario figures.

[FestivalJamie]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Did you read my original post?

Pfizer deliveries down by a third at end of month for at least two weeks, and wildly varied AZ deliveries including two weeks with zero/nada/noting/zilch deliveries. They might now, but that will change.

 

Where did you find this out?

[Copperface]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

Where did you find this out?

Scotland get 8.2% of GB allocation on a fixed formula.

This is the Scots Govt vaccination plan that was released then withdrawn quickly because of 'commercial sensitivities'. 

Extrapolate UK figures based on the Jock 8.2%.

Pfizer factory upgrades and supply limitations widely reported, J&J manufacturing challenges reported last week.

The AZ zero issue was reported then went very quiet - looks like they want to get to the mid Feb date then cough to supply issues, although they have started to mention this increasingly in the past few days, probably to control the messaging.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Scotland get 8.2% of GB allocation on a fixed formula.

This is the Scots Govt vaccination plan that was released then withdrawn quickly because of 'commercial sensitivities'. 

Extrapolate UK figures based on the Jock 8.2%.

Pfizer factory upgrades and supply limitations widely reported, J&J manufacturing challenges reported last week.

The AZ zero issue was reported then went very quiet - looks like they want to get to the mid Feb date then cough to supply issues, although they have started to mention this increasingly in the past few days, probably to control the messaging.

And of course you're focusing on the 2 weeks with 0 not the numerous weeks with 5 million plus for the UK. That table is also worst case scenario and assumes 5 percent wastage too which should be nearer one.

First it was weeks of doom mongering about the mid Feb target ( which they will likely hit) and now it's this lol.

 

[Ozanne]

9 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Scotland get 8.2% of GB allocation on a fixed formula.

This is the Scots Govt vaccination plan that was released then withdrawn quickly because of 'commercial sensitivities'. 

Extrapolate UK figures based on the Jock 8.2%.

Pfizer factory upgrades and supply limitations widely reported, J&J manufacturing challenges reported last week.

The AZ zero issue was reported then went very quiet - looks like they want to get to the mid Feb date then cough to supply issues, although they have started to mention this increasingly in the past few days, probably to control the messaging.

I wonder what the AZ issues are in those weeks?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

9 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Scotland get 8.2% of GB allocation on a fixed formula.

This is the Scots Govt vaccination plan that was released then withdrawn quickly because of 'commercial sensitivities'. 

Extrapolate UK figures based on the Jock 8.2%.

Pfizer factory upgrades and supply limitations widely reported, J&J manufacturing challenges reported last week.

The AZ zero issue was reported then went very quiet - looks like they want to get to the mid Feb date then cough to supply issues, although they have started to mention this increasingly in the past few days, probably to control the messaging.

I have to admit I’ve only quickly added those figures up, but by my maths that’s still the equivalent of 80m doses total for England, why the negativity?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I wonder what the AZ issues are in those weeks?

CHINA 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I have to admit I’ve only quickly added those figures up, but by my maths that’s still the equivalent of 80m doses total for England, why the negativity?

Cause he’s repeatedly negative at any opportunity. He must have said about 20 times there’s no way we will meet the mid feb target but we likely will.

[Toilet Duck]

26 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Did you read my original post?

Pfizer deliveries down by a third at end of month for at least two weeks, and wildly varied AZ deliveries including two weeks with zero/nada/noting/zilch deliveries. They might now, but that will change.

 

But Pfizer have also said that increased production after the reduced deliveries will mean Q1 delivery targets would all be met on time. So, compare what’s in the table above between what they were supposed to deliver over the period (the increase at the end of Feb through March looks like where they are making up the shortfall, but who knows).  Might actually get Moderna before April too (we weren’t supposed to get any til then, but it started arriving last week and is already in arms...not a lot, but it’s something!). The vaccine roll out in the UK is going excellently, a week or two here and there (even a month or so) isn’t going to make all that much difference in the grander scheme of things. What’s important is we get to the end and I think it’s clear now that given the supply, it can be done. I still think you guys are on target to get over 50s sorted by summer and everyone else looked after by Autumn with a better winter next time. 

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I have to admit I’ve only quickly added those figures up, but by my maths that’s still the equivalent of 80m doses total for England, why the negativity?

Not negativity, just a bit of realism rather than government spin maybe? This is all in the context of the festival or festivals in general going ahead, or when that might be possible. 

It's all about the timing for me and these figures are key.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Not negativity, just a bit of realism rather than government spin maybe? This is all in the context of the festival or festivals in general going ahead, or when that might be possible. 

It's all about the timing for me and these figures are key.

Yes but what do a a few weeks with lower numbers really matter, the overall number is still hugely impressive.

[Punksnotdead]

6 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Mask usage seems like a sensible thing to keep in place at least for a while. It doesn’t really cause any major harm or cost.

I long for the day disposable masks are a thing of the past. The number I see discarded on the streets. How long before we start seeing dead turtles & dolphins being fished out of the sea with their bellies full of masks?

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes but what do a a few weeks with lower numbers really matter, the overall number is still hugely impressive.

Not disputing that in the slightest. I think the NHS/JCVI have exceeded most expectations based on previous information which was previously circulated. Whether it is enough is a different matter. 

[FestivalJamie]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes but what do a a few weeks with lower numbers really matter, the overall number is still hugely impressive.

The UK is very lucky to be getting so many doses in such a short time frame. A lot of EU countries are not receiving much in the way of supplies at all and a lot of poorer countries haven’t got any vaccines at all. Even france only aims to have 2.4 million doses done by end of feb, a marker we passed a long time ago.

From my perspective I don’t think @Copperfaceis being negative about the rollout- the speed is VERY impressive. I simply think they are highlighting that there will be supply issues which mean that some weeks may be slower than others meaning targets aren’t guaranteed to be hit. By all means the rollout is very impressive so far and I am very grateful for this as we really needed it to be given the horrendous situation we are in. I think that from my view they are just trying to lay down the facts and its not trying to be negative, more just trying to temper people’s expectations.  

Im also interested by @steviewevie post which says something about Pfizer and antibodies increasing by 6-20x after dose 2. Could this be worrying for us given we aren’t giving dose 2 until after 8-12 weeks for Pfizer?

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Not negativity, just a bit of realism rather than government spin maybe? This is all in the context of the festival or festivals in general going ahead, or when that might be possible. 

It's all about the timing for me and these figures are key.

Watch out, some people get very upset if you criticise the vaccination program even a little bit 😉

[Copperface]

17 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Cause he’s repeatedly negative at any opportunity. He must have said about 20 times there’s no way we will meet the mid feb target but we likely will.

Miss! Miss!