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Chrisp1986

When will this shit end?

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8 minutes ago, kalifire said:

I suppose so. I've not yet heard any alternative, though. What good is a complete lock down if the vaccine is 18 months away? Or are you suggesting an 18 month lock down? That would be absolutely catastrophic for a huge part of the country.

This has become unfortunately politicized with "herd immunity" on the right and "lockdown" on the left but yeah, what many of the lockdown people aren't mentioning is lockdown only works to "flatten the curve" if you keep the lockdown going indefinitely until we have a vaccine which means 8-16 months.

What China did is containment, basically, which Europe and the USA have not attempted at all and I'm not sure how you get that back in the bottle in places like ours where you let it go wild already. Also, containment countries are still at risk as it hasn't worked it's way through yet. Containment until vaccine will only work with constant monitoring and/or already highly authoritarian setups. Japan however is starting to look like an interesting contradiction to what I just wrote... 

The reasons these conversations feel circular is because there is literally no answer. An 8-16 month lockdown, especially where I am in the USA which barely has social protections for it's residents, may have a larger death count than letting the virus do its course while we try to protect the most vulnerable to it best we can. There no studies yet on what this lockdown does to more than half the people in my country who live check to check with no guaranteed housing, food, anything. 

All the choices right now when presented honestly feel unimaginable. 

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1 hour ago, jparx said:

I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else.

Of course there are much bigger things to be worried about, but that doesn’t mean you can’t also miss live music.

Agreed. I'm reading the resumption of live music as being a proxy for the rest of the world getting back to normal.

Personally, I don't see things being totally normal normal for a long time. I expect it will be normal by 2022, but beyond that I wouldn't like to say.

Don't expect things to be sorted by June.

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47 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The flip side to that is there is no evidence to suggest you can get it twice, other than a couple of spurious unsubstantiated reports.

Lets say you can get it twice, second time around it would be far less serious than the first. That is why the flu is not as dangerous as Covid-19, because we’ve built up years of immunity to it. If the Flu was brand new it would be doing the same thing as corona is.

 

54 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The flip side to that is there is no evidence to suggest you can get it twice, other than a couple of spurious unsubstantiated reports.

Lets say you can get it twice, second time around it would be far less serious than the first. That is why the flu is not as dangerous as Covid-19, because we’ve built up years of immunity to it. If the Flu was brand new it would be doing the same thing as corona is.

I heard you the first time.

I agree with you entirely. However, I still think what I think too.

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8 minutes ago, assorted said:

This has become unfortunately politicized with "herd immunity" on the right and "lockdown" on the left but yeah, what many of the lockdown people aren't mentioning is lockdown only works to "flatten the curve" if you keep the lockdown going indefinitely until we have a vaccine which means 8-16 months.

What China did is containment, basically, which Europe and the USA have not attempted at all and I'm not sure how you get that back in the bottle in places like ours where you let it go wild already. Also, containment countries are still at risk as it hasn't worked it's way through yet. Containment until vaccine will only work with constant monitoring and/or already highly authoritarian setups. Japan however is starting to look like an interesting contradiction to what I just wrote... 

The reasons these conversations feel circular is because there is literally no answer. An 8-16 month lockdown, especially where I am in the USA which barely has social protections for it's residents, may have a larger death count than letting the virus do its course while we try to protect the most vulnerable to it best we can. There no studies yet on what this lockdown does to more than half the people in my country who live check to check with no guaranteed housing, food, anything. 

All the choices right now when presented honestly feel unimaginable. 

Great post. I hadn't actually registered the left/right political divide on these 'solutions' because they both feel so awful. On the lock down side, you have immeasurable economic damage, loss of business etc., but on the herd immunity front you have mass death.

There are no simple answers. I guess we just distance ourselves, and hope the best medical advice plays out.

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There are some easier outcomes, in the lap of the gods but it’s not inconceivable:

1. The virus mutates to a gentler form

2. The virus is inhibited by warmer weather (I know, Australia etc has it now, but it may not be as deadly there, we don’t know yet)

3. We suffer much less than the likes of Italy and Spain because their societies remain very traditional with several generations under one roof, whereas our family life is much more separated

4. We have the benefit of learning what to expect and therefore plan for, as several countries are ahead of us in the curve

5. We can better control our borders if we choose to, being an island

 

 

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20 minutes ago, assorted said:

This has become unfortunately politicized with "herd immunity" on the right and "lockdown" on the left but yeah, what many of the lockdown people aren't mentioning is lockdown only works to "flatten the curve" if you keep the lockdown going indefinitely until we have a vaccine which means 8-16 months.

What China did is containment, basically, which Europe and the USA have not attempted at all and I'm not sure how you get that back in the bottle in places like ours where you let it go wild already. Also, containment countries are still at risk as it hasn't worked it's way through yet. Containment until vaccine will only work with constant monitoring and/or already highly authoritarian setups. Japan however is starting to look like an interesting contradiction to what I just wrote... 

The reasons these conversations feel circular is because there is literally no answer. An 8-16 month lockdown, especially where I am in the USA which barely has social protections for it's residents, may have a larger death count than letting the virus do its course while we try to protect the most vulnerable to it best we can. There no studies yet on what this lockdown does to more than half the people in my country who live check to check with no guaranteed housing, food, anything. 

All the choices right now when presented honestly feel unimaginable. 

I’m not sure that’s entirely true, China was the source of the virus and hence it was running wild before they knew about it. They tried containment initially and then went full lockdown on Hubei.

We tried containment initially, albeit doomed to failure because we didn’t even bother automatically checking people coming back from Italy.

True containment has only really been managed in Singapore, they’ve kept a lid on it through an aggressive containment strategy and without the need for the draconian lock down measures.

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Herd immunity is the only way we return to normal life. The two ways herd immunity is achieved are 1) by sufficient numbers getting infected or 2) by vaccine. 

This was massively poorly managed by the government in how they introduced the term into the lexicon. 

In reality both of the approaches mentioned (herd immunity vs lockdown) are aimed at achieving herd immunity but with varying proportions of the herd achieving it through vaccine vs infection. 

 

Edited by wilby-wilbert

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19 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

There are some easier outcomes, in the lap of the gods but it’s not inconceivable:

1. The virus mutates to a gentler form

2. The virus is inhibited by warmer weather (I know, Australia etc has it now, but it may not be as deadly there, we don’t know yet)

3. We suffer much less than the likes of Italy and Spain because their societies remain very traditional with several generations under one roof, whereas our family life is much more separated

4. We have the benefit of learning what to expect and therefore plan for, as several countries are ahead of us in the curve

5. We can better control our borders if we choose to, being an island

 

 

‘Ahead of the curve’ taking on an ominous new meaning. 

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15 minutes ago, wilby-wilbert said:

Herd immunity is the only way we return to normal life. The two ways herd immunity is achieved are 1) by sufficient numbers getting infected or 2) by vaccine. 

This was massively poorly managed by the government in how they introduced the term into the lexicon. 

In reality both of the approaches mentioned (herd immunity vs lockdown) are aimed at achieving herd immunity but with varying proportions of the herd achieving it through vaccine vs infection. 

 

Yes it was delivered as a strategy when ultimately it’s the end game (to any virus) which can be achieved in the two ways you describe.

I think the reality is it won’t be one or the other, left or right, it will be a combination of everything. 

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1 hour ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Nope, I am a pharmacist working on the frontline. Live music thoughts are what get me through my days of hell.

Surely being on the front line as you call it you will be in a better position to know when it’s all going to be over?

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3 minutes ago, Smeble said:

Surely being on the front line as you call it you will be in a better position to know when it’s all going to be over?

Not unless he has a crystal ball!

I'm hoping for August/September, but worried it could reemerge in November 😕

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It’s inconceivable at the minute that we still might be in this position in a years time. I would “normality” is probably a year away though. I think restrictions will be relaxed towards the end of summer, but maybe then put back on for a couple of month later for winter. 
 

I seriously hope we aren’t worried about things like Glastonbury this time next year.

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If the infection rates keep rising the way they are or have been in other countries then a large % of the country may have had it by the end of the summer. Of course it depends on a lockdown etc however this has not stopped Italy's cases rising. I'm hoping it dies off like the Spanish flu did. Hopefully it just gets weaker and weaker with mutation rather than the opposite. 

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One thing we have to hope is that China have told the truth.

If they have then their first death was early Jan and ours was early March.

Putting what they have been able to do and how strict they have been etc to one side, they are now seeing no new domestic cases, so in theory we should be around two months behind that stage.

The trouble is it’s unlikely that was their first death and the earlier it actually was the longer it will take in reality.

The flip side to that is that it would have been spreading unchecked in Wuhan for some time, much like it spread undetected in Italy for a period. We at least had the relative jump on it without mysterious deaths turning up before we even knew about its existence. That might help to cancel out any economies of the truth from China.

 

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Did anyone else click on this thread thinking it was going to be about Shakin' Stevens' Pyramid opening set in 2008?

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Just now, Homer said:

Did anyone else click on this thread thinking it was going to be about Shakin' Stevens' Pyramid opening set in 2008?

no I thought it was about something else though ... see above !!

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7 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

no I thought it was about something else though ... see above !!

Ha ha - I thought this 'gag' might have been done already. Without scrolling, I was also considering Bruce Springsteen, so will take a guess at that!

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10 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

constapated ? 

Ha - v similar experiences!

(I hope Jens Wildman doesn't read this - that's a proper niche eFests reference!)

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1 hour ago, Sasperella said:

Not unless he has a crystal ball!

I'm hoping for August/September, but worried it could reemerge in November 😕

I think its almost guaranteed to reemerge in the winter given the chances of a vaccine before then are almost 0 from what I have read. 

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45 minutes ago, Doug85 said:

If the infection rates keep rising the way they are or have been in other countries then a large % of the country may have had it by the end of the summer. Of course it depends on a lockdown etc however this has not stopped Italy's cases rising. I'm hoping it dies off like the Spanish flu did. Hopefully it just gets weaker and weaker with mutation rather than the opposite. 

Italy's cases look like they are starting to level off, only 10% increase today, lowest percentage increase for a month.

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1 minute ago, dotdash79 said:

Italy's cases look like they are starting to level off, only 10% increase today, lowest percentage increase for a month.

I find daily % increase as a measure  intuitively misleading. If there were 1000 new cases every day for a week then the % increase would go down each day which gives the impression things are getting better when in reality the number of people who can possibly get the disease is getting smaller but the actual number of people getting infected is the same. 

I think this exacerbated by the presumption that the infections will follow a normal distribution pattern (or bell curve) as this is often how the basic "flatten the curve" graphs are presented. In practice this is unlikely to be the case. 

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5 minutes ago, wilby-wilbert said:

I find daily % increase as a measure  intuitively misleading. If there were 1000 new cases every day for a week then the % increase would go down each day which gives the impression things are getting better when in reality the number of people who can possibly get the disease is getting smaller but the actual number of people getting infected is the same. 

I think this exacerbated by the presumption that the infections will follow a normal distribution pattern (or bell curve) as this is often how the basic "flatten the curve" graphs are presented. In practice this is unlikely to be the case. 

That would be a good thing though surely? The same amount of people being infected each day that is? That would suggest things are improving and not spreading exponentially? Surely anything that isn’t exponential growth is a positive.

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4 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Trying to just sit on this for 12 months won’t be viable, not even close. Within three months I’d expect a return to some sort of ‘normality’ irrespective of what’s happening with the virus.

Last week you were happy with 100 of 1000s of deaths.

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