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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Lay person question

exactly how do they plan to vaccinate potentially tens of millions of people in 3-4 months? It just doesnt sound realistic

who will decide when enough people have had it that we can open up?

i’ve heard 1 million vaccinated per week. By easter thats 13-15 million. Is that enough to open up? 

What about the millions that will refuse it or the very clinically vulnerable who it may not be suitable for?

hancock saying easter just doesnt sound plausible. Mid summer does though.

for me a large scale mass rapid testing success alongside the vaccine is surely going to be crucial to allow reopening

Edited by Memory Man
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Just now, tigger123 said:

I thought the Oxford team were doing PCR tests on their trial volunteers too, to assess whether transmission still occurs in those vaccinated ? Do we know when we can expect the results on this, as surely this is key?

they mentioned it in the press release that it seems to stop transmission as well. But that'll be in their final paper i assume

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I have been helping out at my local cricket club this weekend as they have been asked to provide the room as a vaccination centre by the NHS.

I spoke to a rep from the NHS and he said they are sourcing places like to be ready to go after the 2nd December for either Covid vaccines and/or flu jabs.

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4 minutes ago, Memory Man said:

Lay person question

exactly how do they plan to vaccinate potentially tens of millions of people in 3-4 months? It just doesnt sound realistic

who will decide when enough people have had it that we can open up?

i’ve heard 1 million vaccinated per week. By easter thats 13-15 million. Is that enough to open up? 

What about the millions that will refuse it or the very clinically vulnerable who it may not be suitable for?

hancock saying easter just doesnt sound plausible. Mid summer does though.

for me a large scale mass rapid testing success alongside the vaccine is surely going to be crucial to allow reopening

Its not mandatory for one thing. So if someone refuses, they'll give it to someone who wants it. 

 

They vaccinate millions for flu.  If the oxford one gets approval, it wont need freezing, so you can do it in chemists e,t.c.

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Personally I’d prefer a quiet Christmas, with visits to close relatives such as parents .  A time to reflect on the terrible year that’s gone by and look forward to a return to normality in the very near future. In my opinion there’s no need to allow or encourage larger gatherings with the inevitable over indulgence in alcohol.  Just a chance to meet those very close relatives, observing hand cleansing etc. All we would like is a chance to see our grandkids with their presents and I assume many on here would relish the opportunity to visit parents.  

Today’s announcement of yet more good news on the vaccines should be an incentive to stay safe for just a little longer. We are so close now to getting our holidays, festivals etc next year it would be crazy to spoil that just for five days of scenes like those witnessed when the first lockdown stopped. Just my opinion, others may disagree. 

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Some questions raised by Ed Conway in this thread - @Toilet Duckany thoughts? 

EDIT: Questions raised in follow up tweet;

Is this a) a reminder that the immune system is ultimately something of a mystery b) something about the way the tests were carried out c) something about Brazil vs UK or d) something else? The gap between those numbers seems quite big.

Edited by Chef
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1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think so, the media will jump in this and hammer it home that we have a vaccine coming. It’s probably just that the initial press notice had the main headline of 70% effective which is true, then when more came out we got the additional news. It’s when you dig down into the story you see the fuller picture. 
 

If anything they’ve done the opposite of sensationalising the story.

Yeah, completely! As if reducing a Great Outcome for mankind to a Good Outcome is sensationalising things.

Ridiculous to bash the press for being measured in their reporting. 

Your confirmation bias at work...

Edited by xxialac
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More great news to boost spirits. I have always been pretty sceptical that anything would be in place in time for Glastonbury '21 to go ahead but feel a bit more optimistic this morning.

Not totally convinced yet as everything is couched in pretty woolly language and nothing specific - what does "“things will be able to start to get back to normal” after Easter" actually mean?

How long will it take to get back to normal. What will life and restrictions be like in the meantime? 

Gone from 'no chance' to 50/50 that Glastonbury might be allowed. Far more optimistic about chances for something like EoTR in September  due to the extra two months.

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10 minutes ago, The Dawg said:

I have been helping out at my local cricket club this weekend as they have been asked to provide the room as a vaccination centre by the NHS.

I spoke to a rep from the NHS and he said they are sourcing places like to be ready to go after the 2nd December for either Covid vaccines and/or flu jabs.

Cool, sounds like the way forward for a mass vaccination plan 

This government were always waiting on a vaccine, they never had any other real plan. I think thats been made abundantly clear today.

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Just now, Copperface said:

More great news to boost spirits. I have always been pretty sceptical that anything would be in place in time for Glastonbury '21 to go ahead but feel a bit more optimistic this morning.

Not totally convinced yet as everything is couched in pretty woolly language and nothing specific - what does "“things will be able to start to get back to normal” after Easter" actually mean?

How long will it take to get back to normal. What will life and restrictions be like in the meantime? 

Gone from 'no chance' to 50/50 that Glastonbury might be allowed. Far more optimistic about chances for something like EoTR in September  due to the extra two months.

EoTR also has far less infrastructure/setup needs and a capacity of 14,000. I'd say that one is a certainty...

 

If it wasn't for the need to plan in advance, Glastonbury would be more likely than now. 

As is, it's a very close one to call.

The other major problem of course is that bands need to make an early call too (an even earlier one for those doing world tours)

I think it will go ahead - just - but without a lot of non-European names that had been planned.

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Absolutely bonkers about the ‘saving Christmas’ announcement to be made later today. We are so close now to coming out of this, even more so with fantastic news today, to throw caution to the wind for a few days. As I’ve mentioned many times before - go Professor Sarah Gilbert and the rest of the amazing Oxford team. I have followed their progress, maybe too obsessively since the beginning of the year - it’s one of the things keeping me sane this year knowing that proper science and factual evidence by the ‘grown ups’ would come through for us. My own family had already decided some time ago to have the quietest Christmas ever with hopefully the best Summer ever in 2021. I presume though that those who have been cautious will be anyway and the others that have said f**k it all along will continue to do so?

However, maybe there are the mitigating factors that the schools will not be spreading infection over Christmas and the eldest most likely to need hospitalisation will have had the vaccination so will it balance out and not overwhelm the NHS? 

 

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On 11/21/2020 at 11:42 AM, eFestivals said:

There's more than one option for getting exercise.

I'm sure that anyone smart enough to get themselves to a gym is smart enough to come up with some short term alternatives that can be done at home or in outdoor space.

And I don't doubt that people wanting anything they do can come up with some reason for why they think it should be allowed.

I guess you are not a gym goer.... its easy to make these statements from ignorance.

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4 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I think it will go ahead - just - but without a lot of non-European names that had been planned.

I’m prepared to sacrifice the likes of Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar if there is no travel from the US in favour of more homegrown bands. If US travel is off the cards then Elton may be available if his tour is put back again and possibly even Fleetwood Mac but I don’t think we’ll be that lucky. 

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4 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I booked my Airbnb for the night before boomtown this morning on the same basis.

August festivals 100% on. June I'm still 50/50.

Where I’m lying caution with Glasto/Sziget/Rock Werchter etc is they are all surely huge international festivals which rely on international artists and international audiences. 

Just because the UK might finish its vaccination plan first, does that mean glasto would be financially plausible to go ahead if lots of international bands and audience weren’t able to come? Similarly, the NHS could mess up the vaccination plan and the whole thing could get delayed meaning glasto wasn’t feasible and a different international festival might be able to run.

My concern with Glastonbury is how big the scale of the event is, how many people attend and how international the event is. I’m thinking surely we will ease back into things rather than rushing so I wonder whether they would consider to downscale it at all.

The likes of Sziget too, it’s in Hungary, perhaps a slightly less wealthy nation than the likes of the UK. They are the first EU nation to order Russia’s vaccine, which I lie sceptical about. Something could easily go wrong over there preventing Sziget to take place.

So I still lie caution with 2021 festivals. For the sake of everyone on here, I hope glasto can find a way to go ahead, but I don’t think I’ll be quite ready to attend in 2021 myself.

Also the leaked nhs plan of everyone vaccinated by Easter I find unrealistic. 1 million per week seems feasible but still optimistic to me and with everyone requiring 2 doses it may take longer than expected. A timeline for April/May starting to ease restrictions but much looser in the summer feels more plausible to me. Nevertheless, an end to misery is in sight which is probably good for me, as I have been struggling the last couple of days and especially I’ve been worrying about this new tier system and Christmas rules which I fear are a massive mistake so close to the end.

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20 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I’m prepared to sacrifice the likes of Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar if there is no travel from the US in favour of more homegrown bands. If US travel is off the cards then Elton may be available if his tour is put back again and possibly even Fleetwood Mac but I don’t think we’ll be that lucky. 

Today’s a great day - I can carry on being hopelessly optimistic so UK artists that need to reform for the greatest party in the best place on earth after the sh*ttiest year ....

Roger Waters, Dave Gilmour, Nick Mason/

Robert Plant, Jimmy Page, John Paul Jones

 

Still going and in the UK I think - NCATBS, though I’d certainly take Grinderman. 

Did Nick Cave move to Los Angeles - I think he’s still here along with Warren Ellis

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19 minutes ago, Havors said:

I guess you are not a gym goer.... its easy to make these statements from ignorance.

I'm not a gym goer, but I'm well aware that you don't need a gym to do exercise.

Just because it might not be your favourite form of exercise doesn't mean it's not exercise.

There's a pandemic, remember? That means measures have to be taken in order to control it, and when it's running out of control and there's no solid data about where the risks really are, it's better to err on the side of caution and not have places of contact open that people can manage without for a few weeks.

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