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When will this shit end?


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40 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I get the argument about more deaths but not the 1 week for 1 month argument. Fair enough if it was in summer but..

You get Christmas week and have to give January.
Surely lockdown isnt so different to a normal january? You won’t even have to go through that annual new year new me gym charade- the perfect excuse. Decent swap imo!

Surely gym/health is better than mince pies and gallons of booze? (Better for public health, not just like in general better because clearly being healthy is awful and eating loads and getting drunk is great) 

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16 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Will it definitely mean another lockdown though, or tighter tier restrictions? Although I guess whatever they call it will be the same thing. 

Exactly - most people are going to be under some sort of restrictions with or without some Xmas relaxation. 

We have another month of this lock down and more ridged tiers could be a very different picture closer to Xmas. 

Is the Xmas relaxation actually going to extend the restrictions or more realistically were there going to be restrictions in January anyway?  How many of you so opposed to people seeing family at Xmas were in Tier 1 until three weeks ago? Perhaps the enhanced restriction novelty hasn't worn off yet.

I can't see anything other than severe restrictions in January anyway so I'd quite like a few days to enjoy. 

I

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2 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Surely gym/health is better than mince pies and gallons of booze? (Better for public health, not just like in general better because clearly being healthy is awful and eating loads and getting drunk is great) 

Good point. There is a desire for gyms to be reopened which probably wouldn’t in a Jan lockdown. 

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2 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

Surely gym/health is better than mince pies and gallons of booze? (Better for public health, not just like in general better because clearly being healthy is awful and eating loads and getting drunk is great) 

 

C395EFF6-8296-4AF1-92BC-6D2397E398C8.jpeg

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The shops will be rammed with people getting Christmas food and presents beforehand, many not wearing masks, leading to a high risk of getting infected and then passing the virus on to their loved ones. It's all such a stupid, dangerous risk...

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16 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Let's hope they announce extra support for businesses+freelancers tomorrow along with a tightened tier system. They can even limit it for a month, month and a half. Very soon those case numbers will not translate to deaths in the same way, the cavalry are coming, you can practically hear their hooves! 

 

It’s so close, it’s madness to unleash that for 5 days. Hundreds of avoidable deaths, plus the other non covid deaths as they are too busy on covid wards. 

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Maybe if we can find a way to communicate with the virus maybe for one day we can ask it for a ceasefire just for christmas day, meet up with it on some barren tract, and have a good old fashioned kick about. The poor thing must be as tired of all this shite as we are. 

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3 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

So what do people think then: London tier 2 and “save the economy” or the right decision and put London in tier 3.

Guess we will find out on Thursday.

The predicted new Tier 2 is basically the old Tier 3 anyway. 

So either way it's bad news for hospitality but gyms look to be spared.

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Won’t January be quieter in terms of bar visits etc so might naturally be some kind of tier system without the need for tier systems ... spending massively drops in Jan .... although this year the lack of ability to spend throughout the last months might skew that 

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27 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

So what do people think then: London tier 2 and “save the economy” or the right decision and put London in tier 3.

Guess we will find out on Thursday.

It will be in the lowest tier as they are they only ones suffering so we can't have them restricted....

Yes I'm taking the piss but quite frankly as someone in the NW the gov bends over to protect the capital but screw everyone else when it happened to them :(

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On 11/15/2020 at 10:25 PM, FestivalJamie said:

SAGEs report today said that a further 9% infected would only bring immunity levels up enough to get the r rate down from 1.1 to 1.0 with all the current restrictions in place.

So for every 9% vaccinated, the r comes down by 0.1 (ish). Given there are 35 million 50+ and vulnerable in the uk, and everyone needs 2 doses, that’s 70 million jabs need to be done. 

I read recently on this forum that the NHS are aiming 1.2 million jabs a week. I think that is telling of how long it is going to take to get enough of the population vaccinated to get the r down enough to stop deaths and risk of hospitals being overwhelmed. I doubt non-vulnerable will ever even be offered the vaccine this is such a mass logistical operation.

Sorry for the negative tone but all of these “back to normal by spring” headlines are false optimism. Expect 4-5 months of hard restrictions from now, on and off lockdowns and major restrictions on socialising. From spring, expect to be able to have private gatherings but masks and social distancing in public. From summer I can visualise larger events such as theatres and cinemas and well ventilated concerts provided everyone is tested before entry.

I don’t expect the likes of clubbing to return to 2022. Festivals are a difficult one because they are outdoors and well ventilated so chances are higher, but if they happen I expect some adaptations in the way of no indoor stages etc. And everyone to be tested before entry, even with people being vaccinated daily.

Im so positive and happy that we have discovered a working vaccine and it’s likely we will have more than one working one in circulation, but the logistics required to vaccinate the vulnerable and the amount of people who need to be vaccinated to make a noticeable difference on the r cannot be overlooked.

So, I’m hopeful things can be more normal by spring. I’m confident things can be more normal by summer. But the phrase “back to normal by spring” is very misleading, because it almost certainly will not be the case. 

I don’t think things will be “back to normal” in 2021, maybe 2022 if we are lucky at a push. But I don’t expect venues such as nightclubs to be able to reopen their doors next year as they are poorly ventilated and cramped spaces, ie hotspots for virus recirculation, which is exactly what we want to avoid.

Vaccine “passports” are off the table as most of us probably won’t even have the chance to take one, perhaps privately, but not with the nhs.

 

 

I know what you mean about not all folk eligible for a vaccine, I'm in mid 40s and don't think I'd be eligible either but damn I'm very worried about what getting covid would do to me (I'm fat btw) :(

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45 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Won’t January be quieter in terms of bar visits etc so might naturally be some kind of tier system without the need for tier systems ... spending massively drops in Jan .... although this year the lack of ability to spend throughout the last months might skew that 

I don't think this January will be like a normal January. If the bars are open they'll be busy. 

People haven't had 11 months to over do it in them.

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