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When will this shit end?


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I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else. Of course there are much bigger things to be worrie

I can’t get the following thought out of my head and it’s making the old bottom lip wobble: Wednesday evening at the 2021 festival, the sun has been out all day but temperature not stifling, perf

So, thought about these models overnight...wasn’t happy that any optimism I had was simply based on my hope they were wrong! So, I’ve thought of two things they don’t include in their model that are b

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14 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Probably less foreign travel for us young ones than 2020 though with introduction of vaccine passports

I just can't see this being a thing (and I haven't seen any strong evidence that countries are genuinely considering it), particularly as different countries will have different levels of vaccine available and ours have pretty much said people under 50 are extremely low priority in terms of receiving it. Creating some sort of privilege access for people who can somehow get a vaccine is fraught with problems, and there's simply no way countries that rely on tourism can stand another year without opening up properly. More likely we'll be seeing some sort of testing thing introduced instead of this.

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41 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

This sounds positive but going to wait and see what @Toilet Duckhas to say before getting too excited.

Howdy folks...sorry I'm late to the party! Was in a meeting and could see notifications coming up!

So, looks very promising indeed. The vaccinated group not only didn't develop severe disease, but also had way fewer infections. Based on this, the suggestion is that the vaccine provides sterilising immunity (how long it lasts? far too early to say). By the numbers (94) it looks like Pfizer skipped their first planned interim analysis at 32 events and held on to get stronger data before unblinding. Appears that has paid off. They still need to wait until November 21st to get their follow up safety data before the FDA will grant EUA, but on the current efficacy data, that's a lock (unless people start keeling over). There's other good news too. The Moderna vaccine is right behind it, using exactly the same technology. Both are a pain in the arse to ship but much easier to scale up than previous vaccine platforms (and also much easier to adapt if the mink variant actually turns out to be a thing, you just insert the new sequence). Having two available would ramp up delivery as well. No indication so far either that the Oxford vaccine won't make it over the line as well, so best case scenario is a hat trick with the front runners with a whole posse of others brining up the rear later next year (J&J could even get there by the end of this year...that one did have sterilising immunity in pre-clinical studies, and Moderna claim theirs did too). The one major note of caution at this stage is that a sub-group analysis would be impossible at this stage, so how well the vaccine performs in high risk groups won't be known til the trials fully play out (not just older individuals, but different ethnic groups, people with different underlying co-morbidities etc). Also, none of the individuals that actually contracted the virus in the control group (or the vaccinated group) developed severe disease, so one of the primary endpoints of the trial can't be evaluated yet...however, if it provides 90% sterilising immunity, then that's a big (and fairly unexpected) win!

 

Edit: I should note, that all this is press releases. I haven't seen the actual data (hasn't been released), it will eventually be published and we can look at it in detail, but that process takes a lot longer than what occurred this morning!

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6 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy folks...sorry I'm late to the party! Was in a meeting and could see notifications coming up!

So, looks very promising indeed. The vaccinated group not only didn't develop severe disease, but also had way fewer infections. Based on this, the suggestion is that the vaccine provides sterilising immunity (how long it lasts? far too early to say). By the numbers (94) it looks like Pfizer skipped their first planned interim analysis at 32 events and held on to get stronger data before unblinding. Appears that has paid off. They still need to wait until November 21st to get their follow up safety data before the FDA will grant EUA, but on the current efficacy data, that's a lock (unless people start keeling over). There's other good news too. The Moderna vaccine is right behind it, using exactly the same technology. Both are a pain in the arse to ship but much easier to scale up than previous vaccine platforms (and also much easier to adapt if the mink variant actually turns out to be a thing, you just insert the new sequence). Having two available would ramp up delivery as well. No indication so far either that the Oxford vaccine won't make it over the line as well, so best case scenario is a hat trick with the front runners with a whole posse of others brining up the rear later next year (J&J could even get there by the end of this year...that one did have sterilising immunity win pre-clinical studies, and Moderna claim theirs did too). The one major note of caution at this stage is that a sub-group analysis would be impossible at this stage, so how well the vaccine performs in high risk groups won't be known til the trials fully play out (not just older individuals, but different ethnic groups, people with different underlying co-morbidities etc). Also, none of the individuals that actually contracted the virus in the control group (or the vaccinated group) developed severe disease, so one of the primary endpoints of the trial can't be evaluated yet...however, if it provides 90% sterilising immunity, then that's a big (and fairly unexpected) win!

Thanks for the detail. Its great to hear from a source that I can trust (no spin)  

Fantastic that we may have multiple options. 

I may start praying to the weather gods again soon for June!

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4 minutes ago, drunk pumpkin said:

Thanks for the detail. Its great to hear from a source that I can trust (no spin)  

Fantastic that we may have multiple options. 

I may start praying to the weather gods again soon for June!

We are so used to being outside in all conditions now that it can rain for 5 days for all I care, itll be a party like no other in our lifetime!! I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it (I understand that it still may not happen, but this is a total game changer)

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44 minutes ago, zahidf said:

i dont mean individuals. I mean society/economic needs overall will stop social distancing asa

No chance. I think restrictions get lifted but many companies still encourage WFH where possible, and many, many people still stay indoors because they feel unsafe.

We will probably see a new "eat out" or high street vouchers scheme to encourage people to start going out again, but I think it's going to be a full year before anything but events where demand massively exceeded supply before will be back on again. It's easy to think about big gigs and Glasto where you're lucky to get tickets, but your average gig where the promoter has to work his arse off just to get the venue 80% full won't be able to run if even 20-30% of that audience are still scared of crowds.

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3 minutes ago, rivalschools.price said:

Now we’ve had some seemingly good news about a vaccine, how long before the click bait/ media start the ‘how safe is the vaccine?’ ‘Too scientist says vaccine is dangerous’ headlines?

The BBC article is interesting - reads in two parts. A) It’s been tested on 45k people and no safety concerns 

b) the data is based on just 94 volunteers who caught COVID.

Exciting news but need to be measured about it.

Also, we have enough for 20m in the UK as you need two doses.

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1 minute ago, March Hare said:

The BBC article is interesting - reads in two parts. A) It’s been tested on 45k people and no safety concerns 

b) the data is based on just 94 volunteers who caught COVID.

Exciting news but need to be measured about it.

Also, we have enough for 20m in the UK as you need two doses.

Yup but even if more get it, its likely to stay in the 80/90% range

20 million is a third of the UK population. And if Oxford also works, we will have enough

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