When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Yesterday it was all sunshine and rainbows with vaccine related news, today it's doom and gloom.

Fair to say we're somewhere in the middle of the two and let's not forget the media will do all they can to get clicks or sell papers so best to take everything with a pinch of salt...

everything except any good news stories about vaccines of course.

[st dan]

I think the best approach they can take for Christmas is to come out and say two households can mix from 24th - 26th December (regardless of the current Tier structure) with a maximum of 8 people (including children). 
Hopefully this would stop anybody planning any large scale gatherings, and instead they can begin to plan for these smaller gatherings in the knowledge that they are actually permitted. 

Not ideal given the current situation, but people are going to have gatherings regardless - so they need to try and control these as much as is possible. I think it’s a sensible compromise, and those who feel uncomfortable can keep it contained to their household if they wish.  
 

Edited October 28, 2020 by st dan

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

I think the best approach they can take for Christmas is to come out and say two households can mix from 24th - 26th December (regardless of the current Tier structure) with a maximum of 8 people (including children). 
Hopefully this would stop anybody planning any large scale gatherings, and instead they can begin to plan for these smaller gatherings in the knowledge that they are actually permitted. 

Not ideal given the current situation, but people are going have gatherings regardless so they need to try and control these as much as is possible. I think it’s a sensible compromise, and those who feel uncomfortable can keep it contained to their household if they wish.  
 

They need to do something like that, otherwise everyone is just going to do whatever they like and the NHS will be a shitshow by mid January. 

[Greenelk]

22 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

everything except any good news stories about vaccines of course.

And in fact ITV (it was on in the house, I really don't usually watch it, as it makes me feel nauseous) are running a line along the screen saying the the head of the vaccines strike force has said that the first vaccines aren't going to be very effective, with the suggestion in a news report that they won't help that much with a path to normality, yet as you indicate, no mention of any positive news coming out

Edited October 28, 2020 by Greenelk

[Chapple12345]

5 minutes ago, st dan said:

I think the best approach they can take for Christmas is to come out and say two households can mix from 24th - 26th December (regardless of the current Tier structure) with a maximum of 8 people (including children). 
Hopefully this would stop anybody planning any large scale gatherings, and instead they can begin to plan for these smaller gatherings in the knowledge that they are actually permitted. 

Not ideal given the current situation, but people are going have gatherings regardless so they need to try and control these as much as is possible. I think it’s a sensible compromise, and those who feel uncomfortable can keep it contained to their household if they wish.  
 

I agree about the 2 households rule, it seems a fair compromise and then just keeping the rule of 6 for the remainder of the period. 

I had a thought to but is there a chance for them to stop the 10pm curfew for the period but then not allow bars/pubs/restaurants to open earlier as a compromise as Christmas is usually a busy period for the industry 

[tigger123]

5 minutes ago, Greenelk said:

And in fact ITV (it was on in the house, I really don't usually watch it, as it makes me feel nauseous) are running a line along the screen saying the the head of the vaccines strike force has said that the first vaccines aren't going to be very effective, with the suggestion in a news report that they won't help that much with a path to normality, yet as you indicate, no mention of any positive news coming out

My concern is that as soon as people hear there is a vaccine being given to people, many will just use that as an indicator that’s its all over and we can start going back to normal. The police can only police by consent and if we get large level non-compliance, then the police are almost powerless, especially after the years of cuts there’s been to police numbers 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, tigger123 said:

My concern is that as soon as people hear there is a vaccine being given to people, many will just use that as an indicator that’s its all over and we can start going back to normal. The police can only police by consent and if we get large level non-compliance, then the police are almost powerless, especially after the years of cuts there’s been to police numbers 

Well yeah, it’s a democratic country and if the public doesn’t want restrictions then we shouldn’t get them. But the public largely does want restrictions. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

11 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I agree about the 2 households rule, it seems a fair compromise and then just keeping the rule of 6 for the remainder of the period. 

I had a thought to but is there a chance for them to stop the 10pm curfew for the period but then not allow bars/pubs/restaurants to open earlier as a compromise as Christmas is usually a busy period for the industry 

They may as well scrap the curfew right now in tiers 2 and 3. As households can't mix in pubs in those tiers I'm really not sure what difference that extra hour makes (I know some argue that it's about people getting drunker and not distancing, although I'm personally sceptical of that, but if people are not mixing outside of households in those pubs anyway then I really fail to see what purpose it serves? Surely it would help the industry out a bit without massively adding to risks of transmission.

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

Honestly I thought they'd have caved and announced a circuit breaker by now, but it does seem like we are just ploughing on with the tiers system and that's it. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

They may as well scrap the curfew right now in tiers 2 and 3. As households can't mix in pubs in those tiers I'm really not sure what difference that extra hour makes (I know some argue that it's about people getting drunker and not distancing, although I'm personally sceptical of that, but if people are not mixing outside of households in those pubs anyway then I really fail to see what purpose it serves? Surely it would help the industry out a bit without massively adding to risks of transmission.

 

The pubs are closed in tier 3 so this specifically applies to tier 2 but households ARE mixing in tier 2. Most pubs are operating a “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The pubs are closed in tier 3 so this specifically applies to tier 2 but households ARE mixing in tier 2. Most pubs are operating a “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. 

Pubs aren't closed in tier 3 if they serve food.

I still think the curfew is a pretty useless measure, even if a few households are mixing in those tiers.

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Honestly I thought they'd have caved and announced a circuit breaker by now, but it does seem like we are just ploughing on with the tiers system and that's it. 

It might have happened if Starmer hadn’t called for it, now it just looks like Boris caving to his demands.

Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

Pubs aren't closed in tier 3 if they serve food.

I still think the curfew is a pretty useless measure, even if a few households are mixing in those tiers.

Especially when you leave a pub and see a whole load of people crowded round a newsagents buying cans of beer to drink at home.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Honestly I thought they'd have caved and announced a circuit breaker by now, but it does seem like we are just ploughing on with the tiers system and that's it. 

It’s too late for a circuit breaker because we’ve missed the half term but I’m honestly not sure R can be brought below 1 with schools being open.

 

If you think back to pre-pandemic times, what sort of interactions make up our usual lives?

 

Schools/Universities

Workplaces

Hospitality

Social gatherings in homes

Public transport

Leisure venues, e.g. cinemas and gyms

 

I’ve excluded outdoor social gatherings and shops because we know the virus is unlikely to spread outdoors, and transmission in shops will be fairly insignificant given that you only pass people in the aisles and aren’t hanging around within 2m of someone for significant periods of time. 
 

Now thinking back to my own pre-pandemic life, and correct me if this is abnormal, but I might interact with dozens of people every day at work and on the commute to/from there, but only see a handful of friends every week in indoor hospitality venues or visiting their homes. 
 

To get the R number down below 1, we need to eliminate 2/3 of our usual contacts. I’m coming to the view that social contact makes up a far lower portion of our daily contacts than we might think. Working from home helps in my case as it eliminates both my office contacts and those I might sit next to on the tube, and this allows me to reduce my contacts to my household and anyone I actively choose to socialise with.

 

But with schools and non-essential workplaces such as factories open, I’m not sure it’s even possible to bring R < 1. There’s been this government mandated clampdown on socialising because it’s an easy target, but I’m not sure that was ever going to be enough. Remember at the height of lockdown, schools and universities as well as many non-essential workplaces were closed (the latter were never forced to close but many voluntarily did since they could furlough staff) 

 

 

[tigger123]

15 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Well yeah, it’s a democratic country and if the public doesn’t want restrictions then we shouldn’t get them. But the public largely does want restrictions. 

Not so sure this will still be the case when the large wave of redundancies from the ending of furlough start to bite 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Pubs aren't closed in tier 3 if they serve food.

I still think the curfew is a pretty useless measure, even if a few households are mixing in those tiers.

They can “operate as restaurants”, so you can buy a meal and have an alcoholic drink with it, but you can’t just go in and spend all night getting pissed in there like a normal pub. They are effectively restaurants at that point. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Not so sure this will still be the case when the large wave of redundancies from the ending of furlough start to bite 

I could be wrong, but I think people will be angry that the government has pulled the plug on the furlough scheme instead of being angry that the restrictions have caused redundancies. There’s a very good argument made by @DeanoL among others that the economy would still be humped if the virus was allowed to spread uncontrollably. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It might have happened if Starmer hadn’t called for it, now it just looks like Boris caving to his demands.

Especially when you leave a pub and see a whole load of people crowded round a newsagents buying cans of beer to drink at home.

Yeah I get why he hasn't but I thought his hand might have been forced by now. I think the fact that case numbers are plateauing somewhat around the 20,000 mark (I know that's still loads, but growth does seem to be slowing) has emboldened them to think the strategy is working.

I guess we will see the comparison with Wales in a few weeks' time. Might be difficult to ignore it if it has really worked there. People are not going to be happy if it looks like Boris has dithered and delayed and then it ruins their Christmases.

[Ozanne]

8 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Yeah I get why he hasn't but I thought his hand might have been forced by now. I think the fact that case numbers are plateauing somewhat around the 20,000 mark (I know that's still loads, but growth does seem to be slowing) has emboldened them to think the strategy is working.

I guess we will see the comparison with Wales in a few weeks' time. Might be difficult to ignore it if it has really worked there. People are not going to be happy if it looks like Boris has dithered and delayed and then it ruins their Christmases.

It seems that the largest death numbers from yesterday are causing more people to call for a national lockdown if you go by the news this morning. Another hospital this time in Airedale has suspended operations because of COVID (apart from cancer and urgent needs). So I think the pressure will grow on the government especially if cases don’t really fall as that would just mean more and more pressure on hospitals. 

You are right about people being hacked off if Boris lack of action causes more restrictions at Christmas. Jon Ashworth was kind of referencing that on the radio this morning. 

[fatyeti24]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Domestic tourism being banned is interesting. I often find it weird that you can have an area in tier 2 but people from that area can travel to holiday in a tier 1 area, I’m sure there’s a decent reason but it seems a bit counter productive. 

People can - and are - travelling from Tier 3 for domestic tourism.  In smaller numbers than they were, perhaps, but it's still going on.  There's nothing stopping them beyond some unenforceable guidelines suggesting they shouldn't.

It goes against just about everything I feel is right to ask for stronger regulations, but when we rely on Great British Common Sense (TM) the Freedom Loving Brits will act as they wish.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Ireland apparently seeing some encouraging numbers since they imposed the strictest lockdown in Europe. Interesting. 

[Quark]

2 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

People can - and are - travelling from Tier 3 for domestic tourism.  In smaller numbers than they were, perhaps, but it's still going on.  There's nothing stopping them beyond some unenforceable guidelines suggesting they shouldn't.

It goes against just about everything I feel is right to ask for stronger regulations, but when we rely on Great British Common Sense (TM) the Freedom Loving Brits will act as they wish.

I'd put myself in the same boat. It's completely against how I feel life should work, but we (the collective "we") just can't be trusted.

It's a real internal clash for me.

[the_arsonist]

Just had a look at that BBC map that shows infections by area. How are so many Southern places avoiding Tier 2? Loads of areas are well over 100 cases per 100k, I thought that was the threshold for restrictions?

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, Quark said:

I'd put myself in the same boat. It's completely against how I feel life should work, but we (the collective "we") just can't be trusted.

It's a real internal clash for me.

If we can’t be “trusted” then maybe it’s something that we as a society don’t want? Idk, I feel a lot of people will say they want a lockdown on an opinion poll but then still break it to visit loved ones. 

3 minutes ago, the_arsonist said:

Just had a look at that BBC map that shows infections by area. How are so many Southern places avoiding Tier 2? Loads of areas are well over 100 cases per 100k, I thought that was the threshold for restrictions?

There is no threshold. Cases and ONS prevalence come into it as well as hospitalisations. I assume the latter are keeping areas out of Tier 2.

 

The 2nd tier is pointless anyway. It doesn’t push R < 1, all it does is delay the time to inevitably go into tier 3. Look at London, the growth has slowed but it’s still growing. They’d be better off just having 2 tiers and putting you in level 3 when you need it, which would increase the overall time spent in level 1. 

[zahidf]

If there is a vaccine which works a lot better but isnt 100%, wouldn't that reduce infections and death rate enough for us to just crack on? if its going to be endemic anyway, year long lockdowns just doesnt seem feasible