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When will this shit end?


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28 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah this follows all info I’ve been seeing so far. However the 26th Oct was the date of the Hillary emails were announced in 2016 so it’s not over yet. I don’t want to get complacent at all been burned before!

I think that’s where most of us who follow it closely are at. We know what the polls say, and what that means historically. We know national polls don’t really matter in state based contests, but provide a good guide and candidates have won from worse positions in the past. We know the state polls had some misses last time, but the pollsters think they have the right adjustments, and regardless they still aren’t as close as 2016. Even with a genuine October surprise, the undecideds that all flowed late to Trump last time aren’t there this time around.

But still…. It’s 2020. Even with all the evidence out there, I can’t shake the overwhelming feeling that something is going to go wrong. Even a win on the night (or days after) and I’ll still be expecting faithless electors to change votes at the electoral college vote.

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27 minutes ago, foolee said:

Absolute joke if this happens. Can't do anything but because it's Christmas lets go and spread the disease. Either restrictions stay put or the restrictions are lifted. Not oh let's do it for one day because of the day.

There will be zero compliance of COVID restrictions at Christmas. They might as well let people get on with it.

For my Nan Christmas is the best day of the year and she waits all year for it. She’s already said to my mum that if she’s high risk and likely to get very ill with COVID, she’d rather have one last Christmas before she does.

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2 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

I think that’s where most of us who follow it closely are at. We know what the polls say, and what that means historically. We know national polls don’t really matter in state based contests, but provide a good guide and candidates have won from worse positions in the past. We know the state polls had some misses last time, but the pollsters think they have the right adjustments, and regardless they still aren’t as close as 2016. Even with a genuine October surprise, the undecideds that all flowed late to Trump last time aren’t there this time around.

But still…. It’s 2020. Even with all the evidence out there, I can’t shake the overwhelming feeling that something is going to go wrong. Even a win on the night (or days after) and I’ll still be expecting faithless electors to change votes at the electoral college vote.

Looks like it's going to be a higher turnout than usual...not sure which candidate that favours, but shows that a lot of people feel a lot more is at stake this time.

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1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

There will be zero compliance of COVID restrictions at Christmas. They might as well let people get on with it.

For my Nan Christmas is the best day of the year and she waits all year for it. She’s already said to my mum that if she’s high risk and likely to get very ill with COVID, she’d rather have one last Christmas before she does.

Won't be zero compliance in our household, not seeing any family.

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15 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

I think there's probably an element of, if people don't see something with their own eyes, they don't quite think it exists (or it doesn't seem so real or urgent)- in many ways, this most recent surge has been invisible to a lot of people, so it's almost like the idea of eating healthy (they know they should do it, but probably don't most of the time, because the threat of not doing so seems so distant and far off). If deaths start sky rocketing, or wards get visibly overloaded, or they have direct experience of knowing someone who dies, then compliance would also soar (like if someone you know suddenly has a heart attack- suddenly the healthy eating thing becomes a more urgent reality). Unfortunately by that point it'll be a bit too late due to the lag between infections and hospitalisation.

Remember before the first lockdown there was lots of photos and coverage of the situation in Italy and China (and the NY hospitals), this time there seems to be very little

I think it’s the ongoing flux of Human Nature. You’re right in what you say and what effect it will have. The counterpoint to that is the longer this goes on those unaffected might be less worried, more people know somebody who had it and recovered easily, and it becomes more clearly defined who is really at risk. So people do their own risk assessment, factor in how hard they’re finding it to follow the restrictions and while they may not throw caution to the wind they’re more likely to go “Sod this, I’m doing everything else I’ll go round to my Friends (or whatever).”

 

On the Guardian article about fatigue there’s a SAGE Member who just blithely dismisses fatigue having any effect (she blames failing Compliance solely on Government mistakes). It’s genuinely astonishing to me that’s the level of expertise guiding us. No wonder there’s an increasing disconnect between the Debates at Government/Academic level and what’s happening IRL.

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4 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

But still…. It’s 2020. Even with all the evidence out there, I can’t shake the overwhelming feeling that something is going to go wrong. Even a win on the night (or days after) and I’ll still be expecting faithless electors to change votes at the electoral college vote.

I know haha! Just feels like 2020 has one last gut punch left.

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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

There will be zero compliance of COVID restrictions at Christmas. They might as well let people get on with it.

For my Nan Christmas is the best day of the year and she waits all year for it. She’s already said to my mum that if she’s high risk and likely to get very ill with COVID, she’d rather have one last Christmas before she does.

Going to a gig/holiday/festival is what keeps me going but I can't do that right now. Doesn't make it right or okay just because it's someone's best day of the year. 

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5 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

There will be zero compliance of COVID restrictions at Christmas. They might as well let people get on with it.

For my Nan Christmas is the best day of the year and she waits all year for it. She’s already said to my mum that if she’s high risk and likely to get very ill with COVID, she’d rather have one last Christmas before she does.

For many people the thought of spending Christmas with their loved ones is the only thing which keeps them going in a normal year let alone the one we've had this time around!

I'm all for relaxing rules to enable those elderly relatives to spend potentially their last Christmas with their families rather than at home alone eating an aunt bessie microwave turkey dinner.

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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

There will be zero compliance of COVID restrictions at Christmas. They might as well let people get on with it.

For my Nan Christmas is the best day of the year and she waits all year for it. She’s already said to my mum that if she’s high risk and likely to get very ill with COVID, she’d rather have one last Christmas before she does.

My Gran has said the same. She’s been locked in all year and Christmas is her ray of light. There will only be 8 of us but it includes 2 of her Grandchildren and 2 Great Grandchildren.

 

I wouldn’t say Zero Compliance but this is a test. If anybody in any of the U.K. Governments thinks they can stop Christmas we should all be very worried as they’re terrifyingly out of touch.

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1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

For many people the thought of spending Christmas with their loved ones is the only thing which keeps them going in a normal year let alone the one we've had this time around!

I'm all for relaxing rules to enable those elderly relatives to spend potentially their last Christmas with their families rather than at home eating an aunt bessie microwave turkey dinner.

Correct. The idea of forcibly ‘protecting’ someone by making them miss their last Christmas with their family is misjudged at best.

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6 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

There will be zero compliance of COVID restrictions at Christmas. They might as well let people get on with it.

For my Nan Christmas is the best day of the year and she waits all year for it. She’s already said to my mum that if she’s high risk and likely to get very ill with COVID, she’d rather have one last Christmas before she does.

Also, just me and my partner having Christmas dinner together this year. If it's not safe to see my grandparents now why should it change for 1 day? You could be killing your own family by making this exception. 

For me it's all or nothing. If it's save enough that 1 day it's save enough for 365 days.

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The common themes that seen to be coming from my fellow Tier 3 dwellers seems to be the following:

- In March we locked down to protect the NHS and we were all in it together. 

- No exit plan. 

- It's ruining the local economy, and the places people live. 

- Missing human interaction and the things they enjoy doing with the people they enjoy doing them with. Watching their first grandchild grow up. 

- little things like ordering a beer a the bar or standing up to drink a pint. 

I find it's totally incomprehensible that people cannot understand why people are fed up of all this now? If everyone is locked up for part of the next two months why not let them have Xmas day together if they so choose? If you haven't been anywhere other than the corner shop for two months the risk has got to be tiny anyway.

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I think the one thing everyone needs to be for Christmas is sensible, I know many who won't be but me and my family will try to be as much as we can. Thankfully there will only be 6 of us this year as we alternate between my mum and dads side. There should ordinarily be 13 of us for Boxing Day which we very obviously won't be doing but as I'd said before we've been planning multiple scenarios of what to do when. Sadly the most I can see the government doing is advising people to use 'common sense' and have an amnesty on children being part of the rule of 6. 

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Some positive vaccine news floating around this morning. 

Really starting to feel like we're building up to something in terms of an announcement relatively soon. 

 

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5 minutes ago, foolee said:

For me it's all or nothing. If it's save enough that 1 day it's save enough for 365 days.

But that’s not quite the case - if restrictions are relaxed for one day only, then to pass anything on to family members, somebody within that household would have to have Covid on 25th December and be also be in the actively contagious stage.
Therefore the laws of averages would say that it is much more unlikely to happen in this instance than if people met up multiple times a week/month etc. And families could take precautions the weeks leading up to Christmas Day, and can essentially self isolate if they wanted to reduce the risks even further. 

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Just now, steviewevie said:

Are other countries so weridly obsessed with christmas as the UK?

From my many liaisons with European ladies I’d say we’re actually quite tame compared to some countries. 

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2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Are other countries so weridly obsessed with christmas as the UK?

I think we're more interested in the socialising and gift giving aspect whereas other countries have a far greater belief in the religious aspects of it

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2 minutes ago, Chef said:

Some positive vaccine news floating around this morning. 

Really starting to feel like we're building up to something in terms of an announcement relatively soon. 

 

Hancock sounded a bit less optimisic that we'll see a vaccine available in 2020 on the radio just now.

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2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Are other countries so weridly obsessed with christmas as the UK?

America even more so. And they have Thanksgiving too. Happy to be corrected but isn't Easter the more important one for Christians?

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Are other countries so weridly obsessed with christmas as the UK?

Define weirdly obsessed? Some families are very close and all year get excited about celebrating together. Especially when you get older and everyone goes in their different directions. My family are placed all over the world so if (in a normal world) we got all of us together under one roof that would be very exciting to me.

13 minutes ago, foolee said:

Also, just me and my partner having Christmas dinner together this year. If it's not safe to see my grandparents now why should it change for 1 day? You could be killing your own family by making this exception. 

For me it's all or nothing. If it's save enough that 1 day it's save enough for 365 days.

It’s not about whether it’s safe that’s the issue. Much of the older population will want to take the risk and go with it because when they get to old age “next Christmas” isn’t guaranteed.

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