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32 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Isn’t Michigan a bit of a weird leaning state at the moment for the democrats though? Hilary was so confident she was going to win the state that she didn’t visit it - and the mood of the state has been that it’s a safe Democrat seat... Watching Fahrenheit 11/9 it seems like there’s a distrust in the Democrat party that’s emerged in Michigan that wasn’t necessarily hilary’s fault, it was the party’s fault.

It seems too much to me like there is a “well Michigan just didn’t like Hilary” excuse. But I’m not sure that’s the real answer.

Biden has a willy, so he's ok in Michigan.

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2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

If the polls are wrong my explanation would be that the polls got it wrong.

I have engaged in debate, I’ve explained why it’s likely Biden will win in many occasions. I’ve offered links to data including averages of polls and also a poll that leans to the right that Trump himself has tweeted he supports. That pollster now shows Biden ahead in several key battleground states. Whereas you have come here with anecdotal evidence and feelings of what you think might happen. Which is fair enough but I take exception to you critiquing what I’ve done when I’ve actually provided data.

Now what do you think of this data from here - https://www.rasmussenreports.com

which shows Biden has small leads in Ohio and Arizona. Ohio has voted the way of the winner for decades. 
 

This following site shows the leaning of that pollster so you can’t say they favour Biden - https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/rasmussen-reports/%3famp

 

This is a tweet from Trump showing support of that pollster as well:


So to summarise the right leaning pollster that Trump himself has supported currently shows Biden leading nationally by 3 points. It’s all this data plus the others I have previously mentioned that leads me to believe that Biden will win the election. Any thoughts on this data?

All valid points and I take that on board but I’m sticking with what I think is going to happen. While I think all signs point to Biden winning the popular vote I’m still just very very very uncertain that many voters are slipping past the pollsters. Also a couple of issues that may be lingering on voters minds on their way to the booth and might swing.

- Lockdowns and the economy. Some will not want to vote for parties in favour of more shut downs.

- China

- Scepticism of the Democrat party

- First time voters.

- That democrat states have been hit pretty bad by the virus and riots.

Then throw all the Q anon nutcases in who typically haven’t voted before and  a lil bit of Russian interference.

I don’t mean to make this personal sorry if it comes off that way Ozanne, but the media and pollsters all going Biden makes me uneasy. Feels like influencing public opinion to go a certain way, and if modern history has told us anything - when that happens people tend to push back.

What could completely destroy my argument though is we don’t really know what effect COVID-19 will have on voters yet. We don’t know whether it makes me people want change, or someone ‘aggressive’ to be in charge. Trump might become quite enticing to those with lockdown/social distancing fatigue. Especially as the economy gets worse.

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9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Any thoughts on this data?

Yes. State level polling is still within the margin of error for battleground states (about 4-5% Vs a 3% margin for national polls).

Were a normal sized polling miss to happen places like Florida and Wisconsin would stay red. Equally if it went the other way places like Alaska and Missouri could go blue

So whilst a Trump victory is unlikely he still has a viable path to it.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

All valid points and I take that on board but I’m sticking with what I think is going to happen. While I think all signs point to Biden winning the popular vote I’m still just very very very uncertain that many voters are slipping past the pollsters. Also a couple of issues that may be lingering on voters minds on their way to the booth and might swing.

- Lockdowns and the economy. Some will not want to vote for parties in favour of more shut downs.

- China

- Scepticism of the Democrat party

- First time voters.

- That democrat states have been hit pretty bad by the virus and riots.

Then throw all the Q anon nutcases in who typically haven’t voted before and  a lil bit of Russian interference.

I don’t mean to make this personal sorry if it comes off that way Ozanne, but the media and pollsters all going Biden makes me uneasy. Feels like influencing public opinion to go a certain way, and if modern history has told us anything - when that happens people tend to push back.

What could completely destroy my argument though is we don’t really know what effect COVID-19 will have on voters yet. We don’t know whether it makes me people want change, or someone ‘aggressive’ to be in charge. Trump might become quite enticing to those with lockdown/social distancing fatigue. Especially as the economy gets worse.

I'd throw in lovely oil and coal into that too.

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None of us know...but in 2016 Trump was something different, he was anti establishment and he had all these catchy slogans like "build a wall", "lock her up", "make america great again" etc etc....but, now, despite what he says, he is the establishment, and he doesn't really have any catchy new slogans apart from 4 more years which is hardly original. And...this pandemic has shown his true colours to a lot of people....zero empathy, it's all about him, a narcissist sociopath...all he seems to care about is the stock market, and china, and donald trump. I think he's losing...many people who stayed home last time because they were not that keen on Clinton will make sure they vote this time, especially ethnic minorities. He has lost the women voters, the elderly voters, he's fucked it. 

(hopefully)

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9 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

All valid points and I take that on board but I’m sticking with what I think is going to happen. While I think all signs point to Biden winning the popular vote I’m still just very very very uncertain that many voters are slipping past the pollsters. Also a couple of issues that may be lingering on voters minds on their way to the booth and might swing.

- Lockdowns and the economy. Some will not want to vote for parties in favour of more shut downs.

- China

- Scepticism of the Democrat party

- First time voters.

- That democrat states have been hit pretty bad by the virus and riots.

Then throw all the Q anon nutcases in who typically haven’t voted before and  a lil bit of Russian interference.

I don’t mean to make this personal sorry if it comes off that way Ozanne, but the media and pollsters all going Biden makes me uneasy. Feels like influencing public opinion to go a certain way, and if modern history has told us anything - when that happens people tend to push back.

What could completely destroy my argument though is we don’t really know what effect COVID-19 will have on voters yet. We don’t know whether it makes me people want change, or someone ‘aggressive’ to be in charge. Trump might become quite enticing to those with lockdown/social distancing fatigue. Especially as the economy gets worse.

Well you did make it personal, so when someone brings data into a discussion and has tried to help provide you with information then I suggest you don't accuse them of not debating.

Apart from your family, where have you got that those issues are going to swing the election? I'm not saying they won't but I'd like to see evidence that China for example is going to cause Biden to lose the election?

If anything overall public opinion of there Democrat party is rising hugely this election due to Trump and his handling of COVID. They are on track to win the House of Reps again, heavily favoured to win the White House and also favoured to win the Senate too. It'll be huge if they win all 3 houses, which would show a huge crash in support for the Republicans. 

I haven't seen any evidence at all that COVID pressures felt in Democratic states will cause then to turn red. If anything it's the opposite they are consolidating towards the Dems and Republican states that are now feeling COVID pressures are leaning towards the Dems. 

The economy has been shattered this year with millions out of work and Trump seemingly downplaying the virus back in February. If it was before COVID then yeah sure I'd have agreed he would win the election on the economy however like everything he's ever touched, he inherited a strong economy and ruined it. Voters remember thing like that and all data at the moment points to it costing Trump dearly. 

You can also see Trump becoming increasingly erratic at his rallies, his latest is resorting too insulting his base that show up. I think this also shows he knows how this election campaign is going too. 

If you don't want to go by polling have a look at the latest odds for the election which according to oddschecker.com shows:

Trumps odds have moved from 6/4 to 7/4, which implies Trump now only has a 36.4% chance of winning the election. However, Biden's odds have been cut to 8/15, which means his chances of winning the election have grown to 65.2%.

The data is there which is why I am pretty confident Biden will win the White House. Of course Trump still can win the election but the chances are small of him doing so.

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59 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Can I ask you a question, what if these polls you rely on a lot are wrong? What will your explanation be? Obviously it’s a hypothetical but I just want to know.

I know this question wasn't asked of me, but I think it's interesting and I've been trying to defend the polls to you as well so I'll give you my answer.

If the polls are wrong I'll look to see what the pollsters say as to why they got things wrong they after all are the professionals. 

When you bring up the polls having been wrong in 2016 everyone responds with the fact that in the end they where mostly within their margins of error so they weren't really wrong. Whilst there is truth in that, polling is hard and even the best pollsters rarely get it spot on, you do have a point that whilst they were within their margins of error there was a consistent trend of underestimating Trump.

The fact that there was this error means pollsters did research in to what might have caused it. One big thing that they came up with is that most polls weren't adjusting for level of education of respondents. They were getting too many responses from college graduates and they weren't doing any weighting to adjust for that. Having identified this as an issue last time there has been weighting for education in this years polls.

At the end of the day professional pollsters are the experts on polling, where there are mistakes it is them who lose out so it is most important to them to work out why and to fix it. If there are big errors this time, and they would have to be big errors for Trump to win. The pollsters will spend a lot of money and research to find out why.

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1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

Isn’t Michigan a bit of a weird leaning state at the moment for the democrats though? Hilary was so confident she was going to win the state that she didn’t visit it - and the mood of the state has been that it’s a safe Democrat seat... Watching Fahrenheit 11/9 it seems like there’s a distrust in the Democrat party that’s emerged in Michigan that wasn’t necessarily hilary’s fault, it was the party’s fault.

It seems too much to me like there is a “well Michigan just didn’t like Hilary” excuse. But I’m not sure that’s the real answer.

Hilary was only ever around 3 points ahead there. A normal polling error

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7 minutes ago, mcshed said:

I know this question wasn't asked of me, but I think it's interesting and I've been trying to defend the polls to you as well so I'll give you my answer.

If the polls are wrong I'll look to see what the pollsters say as to why they got things wrong they after all are the professionals. 

When you bring up the polls having been wrong in 2016 everyone responds with the fact that in the end they where mostly within their margins of error so they weren't really wrong. Whilst there is truth in that, polling is hard and even the best pollsters rarely get it spot on, you do have a point that whilst they were within their margins of error there was a consistent trend of underestimating Trump.

The fact that there was this error means pollsters did research in to what might have caused it. One big thing that they came up with is that most polls weren't adjusting for level of education of respondents. They were getting too many responses from college graduates and they weren't doing any weighting to adjust for that. Having identified this as an issue last time there has been weighting for education in this years polls.

At the end of the day professional pollsters are the experts on polling, where there are mistakes it is them who lose out so it is most important to them to work out why and to fix it. If there are big errors this time, and they would have to be big errors for Trump to win. The pollsters will spend a lot of money and research to find out why.

Exactly. Hilary won the Popular vote within the margin of error but lost the states (again within the margin of error). There wasn't anything massively surprising. 538 had trump at a 25% chance of winning. Which is... accuarate

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I made money betting on a Tory Majority in 2015, Brexit, Trump and the Tories getting a 60-plus Majority last year. Every time it’s been the Outcome I didn’t want and that’s all I’ll bet on. I’ve put money on Trump so I get a vague bit of consolation if that happens again but....I don’t want to say what I actually think will happen. And I haven’t bet on it. I’ll jinx it.

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2 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

I made money betting on a Tory Majority in 2015, Brexit, Trump and the Tories getting a 60-plus Majority last year. Every time it’s been the Outcome I didn’t want and that’s all I’ll bet on. I’ve put money on Trump so I get a vague bit of consolation if that happens again but....I don’t want to say what I actually think will happen. And I haven’t bet on it. I’ll jinx it.

And 2017? And midterms 2018 US?

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19 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Apart from your family, where have you got that those issues are going to swing the election? I'm not saying they won't but I'd like to see evidence that China for example is going to cause Biden to lose the election?

If anything overall public opinion of there Democrat party is rising hugely this election due to Trump and his handling of COVID. They are on track to win the House of Reps again, heavily favoured to win the White House and also favoured to win the Senate too. It'll be huge if they win all 3 houses, which would show a huge crash in support for the Republicans. 

I haven't seen any evidence at all that COVID pressures felt in Democratic states will cause then to turn red. If anything it's the opposite they are consolidating towards the Dems and Republican states that are now feeling COVID pressures are leaning towards the Dems. 

The economy has been shattered this year with millions out of work and Trump seemingly downplaying the virus back in February. If it was before COVID then yeah sure I'd have agreed he would win the election on the economy however like everything he's ever touched, he inherited a strong economy and ruined it. Voters remember thing like that and all data at the moment points to it costing Trump dearly. 

You can also see Trump becoming increasingly erratic at his rallies, his latest is resorting too insulting his base that show up. I think this also shows he knows how this election campaign is going too. 

If you don't want to go by polling have a look at the latest odds for the election which according to oddschecker.com shows:

Trumps odds have moved from 6/4 to 7/4, which implies Trump now only has a 36.4% chance of winning the election. However, Biden's odds have been cut to 8/15, which means his chances of winning the election have grown to 65.2%.

The data is there which is why I am pretty confident Biden will win the White House. Of course Trump still can win the election but the chances are small of him doing so.

Ok il have a go at all of these and try my best

What many find appealing about trump is how he stands up the ccp. He resists against China buying up all of the western market. Biden seems a bit more relaxed to the relationship with China. There are now accusations of his relationship with China

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-54553132

Some will also feel resentful towards China for this pandemic - they may learn towards the bully in this regard.

On Democrat cities:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22X14I
 

New York, Californian Cities, and Portland - cities that have had the most prominent lockdowns and riots throughout this period have caused an awful lot of people to move, and many businesses feel uncertain about operating in those cities. New York at the moment has been decimated by the pandemic and I worry that undecided voters may see democrat states as lockdown trigger happy, and more likely that their state will lockdown and lose their job.

There’s a lot on this at the moment but many Americans seem to be flocking from Democrat states (especially business peoples) who find it too difficult to do business where the democrats are in control of handling the pandemic.

 

This is nor a support or a criticism it’s more an answer of some thoughts that may be in the minds of voters going into this pandemic election.

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6 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Ok il have a go at all of these and try my best

What many find appealing about trump is how he stands up the ccp. He resists against China buying up all of the western market. Biden seems a bit more relaxed to the relationship with China. There are now accusations of his relationship with China

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-54553132

Some will also feel resentful towards China for this pandemic - they may learn towards the bully in this regard.

On Democrat cities:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22X14I
 

New York, Californian Cities, and Portland - cities that have had the most prominent lockdowns and riots throughout this period have caused an awful lot of people to move, and many businesses feel uncertain about operating in those cities. New York at the moment has been decimated by the pandemic and I worry that undecided voters may see democrat states as lockdown trigger happy, and more likely that their state will lockdown and lose their job.

There’s a lot on this at the moment but many Americans seem to be flocking from Democrat states (especially business peoples) who find it too difficult to do business where the democrats are in control of handling the pandemic.

 

This is nor a support or a criticism it’s more an answer of some thoughts that may be in the minds of voters going into this pandemic election.

but are there many undecided voters?

and there will be some undecideds who are pro lockdown...probably the older voters...and some who are more worried about the negative effects of lockdown. If was 6 months time I think that would help Trump more, but numbers are going up again in US, they are still in the middle of it.

Trump is finished. 

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5 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Ok il have a go at all of these and try my best

What many find appealing about trump is how he stands up the ccp. He resists against China buying up all of the western market. Biden seems a bit more relaxed to the relationship with China. There are now accusations of his relationship with China

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-54553132

Some will also feel resentful towards China for this pandemic - they may learn towards the bully in this regard.

On Democrat cities:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22X14I
 

New York, Californian Cities, and Portland - cities that have had the most prominent lockdowns and riots throughout this period have caused an awful lot of people to move, and many businesses feel uncertain about operating in those cities. New York at the moment has been decimated by the pandemic and I worry that undecided voters may see democrat states as lockdown trigger happy, and more likely that their state will lockdown and lose their job.

There’s a lot on this at the moment but many Americans seem to be flocking from Democrat states (especially business peoples) who find it too difficult to do business where the democrats are in control of handling the pandemic.

 

This is nor a support or a criticism it’s more an answer of some thoughts that may be in the minds of voters going into this pandemic. 

Actually recent news about Trump's bank accounts in China have caused the focus to switch to Trumps dealings in China. The Biden story doesn't seem to be having any real traction either, even the author of the story from the New York Post didn't want to put their name next to it. The lead byline on the story, Emma-Jo Morris, recently worked as a producer on the Fox News Show of the Trump loyalist Sean Hannity. The second byline, Gabrielle Fonrouge, had little to do with the article and only learned her name was on it after it was published, the Times reported. it's being seen as a blatant effort to replicate the email hack of Clinton in 2016.

 

That link you shared about COVID was published in May, so much has happened since then with cases rising in many other states since along with so much other controversy surrounding the bailout talks grinding to a halt in Congress which some attribute to the stubbornness of Trump. Trump at a recent rally claimed the US were 'turning the corner' on the virus, however yesterday they recorded their record number of cases at 83k plus. It doesn't really seem that COVID will be a reason for many to vote for Trump in the election and in my view will be the deciding factor for him to lose.

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Anyone seen the video of that chap over in Wales tearing down wrapping to stop you buying “non-essential” stuff?

I genuinely can’t believe it’s been banned.

Children’s clothes considered non-essential for instance is an absolute joke.

My wife seems to think nappy bags / wet wipes have also been put in that category?!

I’m intrigued to hear if anyone thinks doing this sort of thing is necessary and the reasons why?

 

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2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Anyone seen the video of that chap over in Wales tearing down wrapping to stop you buying “non-essential” stuff?

I genuinely can’t believe it’s been banned.

Children’s clothes considered non-essential for instance is an absolute joke.

My wife seems to think nappy bags / wet wipes have also been put in that category?!

I’m intrigued to hear if anyone thinks doing this sort of thing is necessary and the reasons why?

wasn't the reason given that it was unfair to non essential retailers that had to close?

Anywaym I think they will probably do a u-turn on this soon...getting so much negative press.

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

wasn't the reason given that it was unfair to non essential retailers that had to close?

Anywaym I think they will probably do a u-turn on this soon...getting so much negative press.

plus, they don't want loads of people going to the supermarket to shop for non essential stuff....kind of defeats the point of this strict lockdown.

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5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Anyone seen the video of that chap over in Wales tearing down wrapping to stop you buying “non-essential” stuff?

I genuinely can’t believe it’s been banned.

Children’s clothes considered non-essential for instance is an absolute joke.

My wife seems to think nappy bags / wet wipes have also been put in that category?!

I’m intrigued to hear if anyone thinks doing this sort of thing is necessary and the reasons why?

 

mcshed's decent points from earlier:

 

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