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When will this shit end?


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10 minutes ago, Billy Corgan's Ego said:

So France recorded 41,000 cases yesterday (which is basically double the UK) however only recorded 161 deaths (which is less than we seem to be recorded on average). There is obviously a lag, but France are supposedly 4 weeks ahead of us in the pandemic. 

Is this because France are testing more or that we are an unhealthier nation? UK deaths seem so high as a proportion to cases than most other countries. 

could just be a different way of counting the deaths.

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4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Whilst polling might show who people prefer, I’m not sure it shows who people are actually going to vote for.

I worry with Biden that his campaign very easily falls apart - as Neil said - I don’t think he has an tangible goal other than “I’m not trump”.

I worry at the last minute the steam behind Biden might run out.

Pollsters know this, many off them ask about certainty to vote, most give more weight to those who say they voted last time, they also look at demographic indicators of likelihood to vote.  

Time and again you come up with problems with the polls but you don't seem to realise pollsters are well aware of these issues and do a lot to compensate.

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9 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

We've booked a week self catering in an isolated cottage by the side of a loch in the highlands next month - similar idea to yourself, just to get away and keep ourselves to ourselves.  I'll be gutted if that falls foul of restrictions, we really need the break this year!

Yes I keep saying if they say anything I can use the Dominic Cummings defence and say we are doing what's best for our family. We actually can do the drive without stopping and neither of us have COVID and if our eyesight seems a little shaky we'll have Barnard Castle right near by!! 

Hope you can get away as well. This has been the hardest working year of my life and as it's happening from home it ends up taking over our whole life so the change of scenery is much needed!!

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43 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Nicky Morgan? I can't stand her. Showing her true colours here, despite the fact they keep putting her in HIGNFY as some kind of fun Tory (it doesn't work at all there either):

 

Refusing to feed children because someone called you scum isn't exactly the best way they can refute the origianl allegation.

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12 minutes ago, mcshed said:

Pollsters know this, many off them ask about certainty to vote, most give more weight to those who say they voted last time, they also look at demographic indicators of likelihood to vote.  

Time and again you come up with problems with the polls but you don't seem to realise pollsters are well aware of these issues and do a lot to compensate.

It’s impossible to have a discussion with someone when you present data and analysis of said data then that person says their instinct says...

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9 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Greg Davies is great. All Greg’s are great. Greg Normal. Gregg Wallace. Greggs the bakers. Greg Taylor the footballer. Greg Rusedski. IMO, the country should be ran entirely by people named Greg. 

I agree. Greg Taylor has been outstanding for the Mighty Cambridge this season!49189878621_d141e638c6_o.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s impossible to have a discussion with someone when you present data and analysis of said data then that person says their instinct says...

My own instinct is that the result will be closer than the polls suggest, and even tho I lean towards a Biden win I'm still worried about Trump 'winning' - tho that might be by devious means. 

I believe that in some states the postal votes can't start being counted until after the polls close, and that there's essentially a time limit to how long they will count them for, much like what happened with Al Gore.

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46 minutes ago, Quark said:

Ha, that is word for word what I said to Mrs Q the other day! :D

 

47 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Me too. The whole world has gone to shit since then. 

You know it makes sense.

Obviously shit stuff happened before that but things have really gone up a level since then in terms of general bonkers bad.

@gigpusher Glad you are getting to take your holiday. I know you were worrying about your dog and sounds well deserved! 

We took our first holiday of the year (in terms of time off at all) last week and escaped to a little Airbnb in Dorset for six days. Did very little but did us the world of good.

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Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

 

You know it makes sense.

Obviously shit stuff happened before that but things have really gone up a level since then in terms of general bonkers bad.

@gigpusher Glad you are getting to take your holiday. I know you were worrying about your dog and sounds well deserved! 

We took our first holiday of the year (in terms of time off at all) last week and escaped to a little Airbnb in Dorset for six days. Did very little but did us the world of good.

Thanks. It was a tough decision but a few nights of idiots setting off fireworks already meant we just had to do it. I hate the fact that you feel almost like a criminal for doing it especially when I know that we are taking every precaution. Luckily we can still enjoy nice food etc as so many places are doing delivery so we can help out the hospitality industry by ordering stuff to our door and save us having to leave the house. 

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6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

My own instinct is that the result will be closer than the polls suggest, and even tho I lean towards a Biden win I'm still worried about Trump 'winning' - tho that might be by devious means. 

I believe that in some states the postal votes can't start being counted until after the polls close, and that there's essentially a time limit to how long they will count them for, much like what happened with Al Gore.

Don’t get me wrong I’m worried Trump might win and there is a chance he can. However all data I’m seeing at the moment points to a Biden win, which gives me comfort. 

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Just now, Ozanne said:

Don’t get me wrong I’m worried Trump might win and there is a chance he can. However all data I’m seeing at the moment points to a Biden win, which gives me comfort. 

The main thing that worries me is apparently all the gambling money is still going on Trump winning 

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13 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

My own instinct is that the result will be closer than the polls suggest, and even tho I lean towards a Biden win I'm still worried about Trump 'winning' - tho that might be by devious means. 

I believe that in some states the postal votes can't start being counted until after the polls close, and that there's essentially a time limit to how long they will count them for, much like what happened with Al Gore.

yeah, this is kind of where I am. The polls all point to a Biden win, but due to what happened last time many don't believe them. I think pollsters have tried to take into account the shy Trumpheads, but, still...you just don't know..especially when just comes down to a few swing states.

Also...anyone else think they shouldn't have any polling before elections?

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9 hours ago, gizmoman said:

His views were pretty clear, but do you think he's lying or he faked the video? If so what's the motive?

Hi Gizmo, I won't really comment on the motive (basically, the way I see it, case numbers reach a point where they make little difference, once it gets out of control, it doesn't really matter whether it's 10,000 per day or 20,000, the trend is more important than the exact number...when people are streaming through the doors of the hospital, filling up ICU and dying in large numbers, then continuing to maintain the whole thing is a hoax seems a bit mental to me...ask @Lycra if his missus thinks the patients on her ward are faking it (I'm not suggesting that this is what you personally are implying by the way!))...Positive cases make a difference when things are open, as those with a positive result can't work and need to self-isolate (so getting it right is very important), and once things are under control, they help to spot trends in transmission to predict where things might be going, but if you are using hospital admissions as your trigger for NPI decisions, then it reaches a point where exact case numbers become academic until they start to drop again and indicate that your interventions are working (and until we have another way of controlling things, the last remaining option is to shut stuff down). 

...but, you aren't entirely paranoid in questioning PCR as the most appropriate method for keeping track of things. It's super sensitive, and dead easy to design, but not only is it prone to false positives in terms of infectiousness (as we've discussed at length), but it's also prone to contamination. Without stringent protocols, cross contamination from other positive samples can occur. There are controls built in for the actual PCR reaction (there's always a sample that should be negative in the run, if it comes back positive, the entire run is chucked out and done again), but depending on how well run the testing facility is, it's theoretically possible to cross contaminate during the liquid handling part where the nucleic acids are extracted (in our facility this step is done by a robot). I've no idea whether this happens, and if it does, how widespread it is. So, most likely not some grand conspiracy to artificially inflate case numbers, more likely to be massive pressure to deliver test results quickly leading to mistakes. Like Jeremy Farrar, I'd have preferred to see expert local molecular diagnostic labs, with highly experienced med lab technicians utilised for this rather than setting up a whole new private testing regime.

I know I've been banging on about rapid antigen tests for a while now, but a big benefit of point-of-care testing (in addition to convenience) is that the possibility for cross contamination with other positive samples is reduced (you take your sample, pop it in the test, result comes back in 15 minutes or so...no massive liquid handling robots, no batch running of thousands of samples at the same time, or if lots of samples are being processed together, the tests aren't as sensitive as PCR so less prone to picking up something from another sample anyway). When these get approved for saliva, they will be even easier and will be able to be performed at home (so cross contamination will be even less of an issue, if it currently is, I honestly don't know, it's just a theoretical possibility). Our version of NICE here in Ireland released their report on the various rapid tests on Wednesday and recommended their roll out in Ireland (with PCR verification in some cases). Hopefully this will help us get a more accurate picture, on a more regular basis, of what the virus is doing in our communities and who is actually infectious.

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1 hour ago, Superscally said:

He was that far behind last time. Trump has got this sewn up. Don't believe the hype that Biden's got him on the run that you see in the media. It was the same here and in the States last time with Hillary. I was in the States, albeit in the South and trust me, the result was never in doubt. There was genuine surprise that there was a "surprise" for Democrats...

I'm not sure that's happening this time though. I mean we're already starting to see stories from the crazies about problems with the postal vote and Dems doing voter suppression... they're laying the groundwork for claiming that the system was rigged when Trump loses, not planning for his victory.

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

That assumes the polls are accurate. :P 

As well as putting the electoral college to the side, as it's not only about the numbers.

The polls say a good win for Biden, sure. I'm concerned that there might be a significant number of 'shy Trumpers' in the same way there's normally a significant number of shy tories in UK elections. Those possible 'shy Trumpers' are the sorts where last night's debate might have made a difference in Trump's favour, too.

I think that's going to be a thing but equally I think it'll go even more the other way. A lot of Republicans held their noses and voted for Trump last time, partly because "well how bad can it really be" and partly because they hate Hilary so much. Now they know how bad it can really be, and Biden isn't Hilary and isn't even someone like a Sanders or even an Obama that's properly going to rock the boat. For a lot of Republicans, Biden might actually be the lesser of two evils, but they'd never admit to that. Or they just won't vote.

59 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

They are increasingly cancelling themselves though, so it's becoming moot.

That's interesting - it feeds in to what I've been saying, it doesn't matter what can be open, it's about what people feel comfortable doing - that's the driver on demand at the moment. Hopefully the new job support scheme might help you out a bit until you inevitably hit tier 2.

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12 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

The main thing that worries me is apparently all the gambling money is still going on Trump winning 

 

I choose to believe that this is because people are covering their backs in a "well, at least if he wins I'll have made some money" type of way!

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47 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Yes I keep saying if they say anything I can use the Dominic Cummings defence and say we are doing what's best for our family. We actually can do the drive without stopping and neither of us have COVID and if our eyesight seems a little shaky we'll have Barnard Castle right near by!! 

 

I stopped off at Barnard Castle on the way back from a trip to the North East a couple of weeks ago. Lovely little town, but I was disappointed that no one had doctored the tourist information boards, or set up a 'Dominic Cummings memorial river walk' or similar. Or if they had they'd been removed by the time I went there

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3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Christmas No.1?

Out of nowhere ... it’s going to appear ... almost like there might be a lag between infection and more severe consequences... and we had lower numbers during the summer and into September because people were outside 

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17 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

there's a suggestion in private eye that the deaths have been low because so many of the 'easy' targets (care homes, etc) got infected first time around.

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14 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

I choose to believe that this is because people are covering their backs in a "well, at least if he wins I'll have made some money" type of way!

From my experience (and I do love a bet!), that isn't how most people approach betting. Usually people bet on either what they think will happen or on what they want to happen. Not usually the other way round!

I wish I could share your optimism, but I am bracing myself for a Trump shock win!

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