When will this shit end?

[Homer]

10 hours ago, priest17 said:

Basically not trump is the best outcome.

With that said, I don't mind the reality star becoming leader thing, we should get Greg Davies as prime minister with little Alex Horne as deputy.

They're not reality stars though - the equivalence would be us randomly making Alan Sugar PM!

[Superscally]

10 hours ago, Mouseboy11 said:

I agree, it's shocking that the two best men the parties could find are in their 70s ffs

Hardest job in the world and both fellas are in retirement bracket. Should be a ceiling of first term must end at 65. 

[Quark]

Struggle to believe it's been 4 years of Trump and Brexit. I've got a working theory that the guys at CERN did open up a parallel universe back at the end of 2015 as some news articles were talking about, and we just haven't noticed that's what happened.

Biden winning wont fix the world overnight, but dear God it would be a relief just to see something approaching a normal thing happening.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Quark

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

Hmmm. That assumes that Trump is losing because Republicans have switched to the Dems.

While it's obvious some have, with turnout tending to be only around 50% there's also likely to be plenty of voters voting Dem who didn't vote last time, and voters who voted for Trump last time who are going to sit this one out.

I'm suggesting Trump might have encouraged some of those no-voters to vote for him after all - which isn't about switching voters from the Dems.

I don’t think so. The main problem Hillary had was that a large portion of Dem voters stayed at home so Biden needs to get those out to vote for him and he wins the election. That alone.

The only section of the electorate Trump is polling better in than Hillary did is the Hispanic vote. But that’s being wiped out by Biden huge gains with White voters. 

[Superscally]

15 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I am. Trump is 10 points behind in the polls. A draw is good news for Biden.

He was that far behind last time. Trump has got this sewn up. Don't believe the hype that Biden's got him on the run that you see in the media. It was the same here and in the States last time with Hillary. I was in the States, albeit in the South and trust me, the result was never in doubt. There was genuine surprise that there was a "surprise" for Democrats...

[priest17]

3 minutes ago, Homer said:

They're not reality stars though - the equivalence would be us randomly making Alan Sugar PM!

They star in a reality TV show, they definitely are ahah. 

[Superscally]

9 hours ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

He's faked the video.  Look at his body language - scratching his face every 2 seconds and basically looking like a used car dealer trying to sell you a cut-and-shut.  A toddler should be able to recognise this as bullshit: when he was doing his little speech to the camera, introducing his 'experiment' he would have been aware that the chances of him getting a positive result were slim, because the majority of test results are negative.  Yet, he was really invested in giving that intro to his video, complete with the dreadful bad-acting, like a shit magician trying to persuade you there's nothing in his hand.

I can't categorically state what his motive is, but it will fall into either the click-bait Charlatan or Tin-foil-hat category.  

I did an ONS survey swab test a couple of weeks ago.  Can you guess what result I got?

You also don't see him break the seal on the test. May very well have swabbed himself...

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think so. The main problem Hillary had was that a large portion of Dem voters stayed at home so Biden needs to get those out to vote for him and he wins the election. That alone.

The only section of the electorate Trump is polling better in than Hillary did is the Hispanic vote. But that’s being wiped out by Biden huge gains with White voters. 

That assumes the polls are accurate.  

As well as putting the electoral college to the side, as it's not only about the numbers.

The polls say a good win for Biden, sure. I'm concerned that there might be a significant number of 'shy Trumpers' in the same way there's normally a significant number of shy tories in UK elections. Those possible 'shy Trumpers' are the sorts where last night's debate might have made a difference in Trump's favour, too.

[Matt42]

12 hours ago, steviewevie said:

so after the initial 2 minutes it's back to the usual chaos? I wonder if Trump will try a different tactic, try to be nicer, interrupt less, show more empathy for those affected by the pandemic...I doubt it's possible. Biden just need to keep calm, try and ignore him, and keep talking into the camera at the watching public and be the only grown up in the room.

Haven’t read the rest of the thread but you got it!

[Homer]

34 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I saw a fair amount of it.

Personally I'd say the first debate told you much more about the candidates, despite - or perhaps because of - the chaos.

Because last night was more calm there was more chance to listen, and what jumped out at me was the massive absence of policy from both of them. Essentially, Biden's pitch was "I'm not Trump" and Trump's pitch was "I'm not Biden". 

I wouldn't say there was a winner as such, although I have a feeling last night might have restored some of Trump's lost voters rather than encouraged more votes for Biden.

The Republicans have decided not to even bother with a platform (manifesto) this time out (the Dems one is over 80 pages I believe)

[Ozanne]

Just now, eFestivals said:

That assumes the polls are accurate.  

As well as putting the electoral college to the side, as it's not only about the numbers.

The polls say a good win for Biden, sure. I'm concerned that there might be a significant number of 'shy Trumpers' in the same way there's normally a significant number of shy tories in UK elections. Those possible 'shy Trumpers' are the sorts where last night's debate might have made a difference in Trump's favour, too.

Alright Matt 😉

It does assume the polls are within the margin of error however I’ve no real reason to believe they aren’t. They were quite accurate in 2016 and were right in 2018 for the mid-terms after all.

[priest17]

I got a notification on the T&T app to say my area is now Ver High risk, presumably because the whole country is basically now in High risk and they need to discern different areas, my area has been going down the last couple of weeks.

[Homer]

17 minutes ago, Spindles said:

I thought Biden came out a little ahead, Trump mostly wanted to focus on personal digs but did better talking about policy, Biden wanted to focus on how Trump was still saying he had a plan but after 4 years hadn't shown evidence of one, like his tax returns everything was always coming but never comes.

Biden to win comfortably, I think, in a couple of weeks.

Trump is one big bait and switch scam - the miracle cure, etc is always just about to arrive, honest.

[Matt42]

36 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

If there wasn’t a winner that means Biden won. Trump needs a knockout blow to win over the swaves of voters to turn this around. 

I see it the other way lol

[Homer]

8 minutes ago, priest17 said:

They star in a reality TV show, they definitely are ahah. 

Must have missed that - I've only seen Taskmaster!

[Matt42]

I still think Trump is going to win. I still think there’s a lot out there the polls aren’t recording/missing. I’m seeing some polls begin to equalise, which makes me think it’s a close fight coming.

I can’t call it now.

[Homer]

8 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Greg Davies is great. All Greg’s are great. Greg Normal. Gregg Wallace. Greggs the bakers. Greg Taylor the footballer. Greg Rusedski. IMO, the country should be ran entirely by people named Greg. 

Not everyone agrees sadly...

[Zoo Music Girl]

8 hours ago, Ryan1984 said:

There was some Tory witch on Question Time saying that it’s all Labour’s fault that the Tories are starving children.
Apparently they should never have put forward the vote as it was insulting and left the Tories with no choice but to make kids go hungry...

Nicky Morgan? I can't stand her. Showing her true colours here, despite the fact they keep putting her in HIGNFY as some kind of fun Tory (it doesn't work at all there either):

 

[fatyeti24]

7 minutes ago, priest17 said:

I got a notification on the T&T app to say my area is now Ver High risk, presumably because the whole country is basically now in High risk and they need to discern different areas, my area has been going down the last couple of weeks.

Here in Cumbria we find ourselves in the strange situation of wanting to be in a higher tier - we're currently tier 1 - because that way we may get some government help for our loss of trade which almost entirely comes from areas from which people are recommended not to travel.

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I still think Trump is going to win. I still think there’s a lot out there the polls aren’t recording/missing. I’m seeing some polls begin to equalise, which makes me think it’s a close fight coming.

I can’t call it now.

They aren’t really, have a look at that site I posted on the previous page. Biden has double digit leads.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_oct22

This is a pollster that leans to the right and Trump actively tweets support of them however they now show Biden winning in several key swing states such as Arizona and Ohio. As I said this is a pollster Trump likes and they show it as against him now. 

[Spindles]

4 minutes ago, Homer said:

Trump is one big bait and switch scam - the miracle cure, etc is always just about to arrive, honest.

Yeah, that was Biden's main theme, that Trump talks a big game but delivers nothing.  For me the biggest points for both sides were probably scored on the last question of the night,which really was the only new ground trodden last night which was something other than a more civil retelling of the first debate and town hall talking points.

When asked about people living in the shadow of industrial pollution Trump's answer was there is a lot of money being made, not addressed the families affected, Biden let himself be cornered into saying he would move away from the oil industry.  It seemed at the time like it could be an own goal that Trump wanted to focus on but came too late for him to score more points with but I think that Biden's clean energy plan probably gained more traction with the american people.

[Chef]

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Cousin Greg.

Best post of 2020. 

[fatyeti24]

[gigpusher]

1 minute ago, fatyeti24 said:

Here in Cumbria we find ourselves in the strange situation of wanting to be in a higher tier - we're currently tier 1 - because that way we may get some government help for our loss of trade which almost entirely comes from areas from which people are recommended not to travel.

Yep I feel for anyone in hospitality at the moment. All the restaurants in Manchester are crying out for customers but a lot of people won't travel into Manchester for just a meal. Most people if they are going in combine it with shopping and a couple of bars. 

We are in tier 3 but the numbers in my local area are way lower than a lot of tier 2 areas and we live literally 100 yards from tier 2. We are due to go on holiday to Northumberland next week. The advice is not to travel but we were doing it to escape the fireworks because one of my dogs is really poorly and petrified of them. We spoke to the owner of the cottage and explained our plan as we only ever intended to effectively self-isolate up there. We've agreed to effectively self-isolate here for the next week and we will only be having deliveries when we get there. I think the owner of the cottage was exceedingly grateful. 

[Matt42]

Food for thought

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

They aren’t really, have a look at that site I posted on the previous page. Biden has double digit leads.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_oct22

This is a pollster that leans to the right and Trump actively tweets support of them however they now show Biden winning in several key swing states such as Arizona and Ohio. As I said this is a pollster Trump likes and they show it as against him now. 

I’d rather not decorate this up more than I just have an instinctive feeling.

I have a feeling in my waters that Trump will win by keeping Florida and Texas and winning a Democrat safe state off them. 
 

With all that’s been going on there recently, and the fact that he got 4 million votes there in the last election, and there has been a serious effort to grow a Republican community there - I genuinely think there’s a chance California could turn red. Many people who live there now feel like Democrat governance has made it a poor state to live in. Obviously this is just instinctive but if you look up the ‘California turning red’ movement, you’l see it’s something not reported on