When will this shit end?

[Chapple12345]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

A valid question for the circuit break thing is would the length be definitely fixed? If cases/hospitalisations/deaths still rising, which is very possible, do we just end lockdown...or would it be better to extend it a week...or two?

This is my issue with it, people complied earlier on during lockdown because they thought it would be a few weeks and itd all blow over, people now know it has to be longer to be effective so I dont think they'd get full support without guaranteeing it would only be a 2/3 week thing rather than indefinite 

[steviewevie]

Larry Elliot, guardian economics editor,  who is a kind of old school lefty, was pro brexit, and looks like he is anti lockdown as he is worried about jobs...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/15/britains-covid-19-strategy-jobless-people-virus-economic

[rascalpete]

Pfizer looking good to release some results this month “Waiting another couple of weeks to complete the safety data should not be a concern,”

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-10-14/pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-trial-remains-on-track-ceo-says

Sound promising, also if what @Toilet Duck has heard whispers about effectiveness even moreso*
 

*pinch of salt taken 

Edited October 15, 2020 by rascalpete

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, rascalpete said:

Pfizer looking good to release some results this month “Waiting another couple of weeks to complete the safety data should not be a concern,”

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-10-14/pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-trial-remains-on-track-ceo-says

Sound promising, also if what @Toilet Duck has heard whispers about effectiveness even moreso*
 

*pinch of salt taken 

Pfizer has to be the red hot favourite at this point 

[Ozanne]

14 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

This is my issue with it, people complied earlier on during lockdown because they thought it would be a few weeks and itd all blow over, people now know it has to be longer to be effective so I dont think they'd get full support without guaranteeing it would only be a 2/3 week thing rather than indefinite 

That’s because of the chasm of leadership though. If we had honest leadership throughout I feel people would be more willing to get on board. However look who we have in charge. 

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Pfizer has to be the red hot favourite at this point 

We need tons of vaccine though and for quite some time, so the more that make it over the line, the better! 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That’s because of the chasm of leadership though. If we had honest leadership throughout I feel people would be more willing to get on board. However look who we have in charge. 

yeah...this.

[steviewevie]

21 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

We need tons of vaccine though and for quite some time, so the more that make it over the line, the better! 

there is a chance that we'll have multiple vaccines available, some more suitable for more vulnerable people, others more suitable for less vulnerable people?

Edited October 15, 2020 by steviewevie

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

2 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

Victoria managed to turn around their contact tracing performance in a month. 

Of course i acknowledge it's a lot easier to contact trace hundreds of cases and contacts than ten of thousands, which is why you need strategies to get your case count down first to be able to manage it, through good leaders willing to make hard decisions, which i think we all know is the real core of the problem. 

That's the kicker for me, it wouldn't be this hard to fix. 

The process is just wrong, and poorly thought out, it's not just a question of changing a few lines of code. 

At the start of the pandemic the shielding list was sent to local authorities to put provisions in place initially this was just a spreadsheet - without going into detail it was effectively unusable. Until LA's kicked back - some changes were made and it because more useful (after a lot of wasted time). The same then happened for track and trace cases which are passed onto LA's after national track and trace can't find people. 

Track and trace should be making use of the local authority and their knowledge - they have access to far more pieces of data about its residents than the NHS does they stand a better chance of finding you. The NHS has your medical records and that's about it. Again that handover is poorly designed and data is poorly provided it could all again save time money and infections. 

For me the problem comes from the fact that those designing it have no clear vision of what they actually require, and they have no understanding of what already exists and what the people actually on the ground need - that's nothing knee when you have these sorts of steering groups. 

I'm hearing, and it is literally hearing so I can't link you to a source that some changes are a foot with it - I don't know what they are but I know with certainty there is one change happening that will help local authorities when the cases hit them. 

It's a complete shambles though and should be a national embarrassment and the businesses involved should never win a contract again... But they will.

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That’s because of the chasm of leadership though. If we had honest leadership throughout I feel people would be more willing to get on board. However look who we have in charge. 

it's less about honest leadership and more about effective outcomes from leadership.

Otherwise Scotland would be streets better than England, instead of pretty much mirroring Spaffer.

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it's less about honest leadership and more about effective outcomes from leadership.

Otherwise Scotland would be streets better than England, instead of pretty much mirroring Spaffer.

Yeah I see what you mean. In any event we just get no leadership at all from that pillock in Number 10.

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

17 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

We need tons of vaccine though and for quite some time, so the more that make it over the line, the better! 

Is there any chance any of the companies will 'opensource' the vaccine or let others produce it under license? So we, as a species can produce more rapidly?

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

there is a chance that will hafve multiple vaccines available, some more suitable for more vulnerable people, others more suitable for less vulnerable people?

Entirely possible alright! Most of the vaccine trials have been pushing hard to build greater diversity into their participant groups. Pfizer had to increase their original accrual target significantly as they had nowhere near enough of different ethnic groups (all had good age profiles once they moved into phase 3). Participants with different co-morbidities have been included too, even those with chronic conditions that require long term use of immunosuppressants(so long as they can pause taking them for a bit). So we should get a good idea which ones are best for different individuals. We've been mainly watching the Oxford/Pfizer/Moderna group of vaccines (as that's what is being reported in the media), but to be honest, the Chinese vaccines look fine too and can probably help protect large parts of the world. Some of them are a lot easier to ship and store so will probably be used elsewhere. The Russian vaccine is particularly easy to ship (freeze-dried), and the safety profile looks as good as the rest of them (the immune response looks weaker though). This first wave of vaccines should help take the pressure off in terms of fatalities, with large vaccine manufacturers bringing up the rear later next year. 

[Toilet Duck]

5 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Is there any chance any of the companies will 'opensource' the vaccine or let others produce it under license? So we, as a species can produce more rapidly?

Yes, that's exactly what the Oxford/AZ group have done. The Serum Institute in India will make a billion doses of it for the Indian market. Expect all sorts of licensing deals as different vaccines get approval (wont be "open source" though!). To be honest, licensing for test manufacture needs to increase as well. Roche licensed the SD Biosensor test, which they are making for the European Market (it's already being used in South Korea) which was a smart move. To deliver "moonshot", rather than spending billions on unproven tests, I'd be striking licensing and manufacturing deals for tests that already work (while doing some development in the background). 

 

Edit: I should add that with the Pfizer one, it looks like the original developers of the vaccine (BioNTech) will make the European version in Germany (but that's not a licensing deal, it's Pfizer that have the license, but BioNTech needed a big partner to run the trial...same way Oxford needed a big Pharma company and AZ were among the only ones left that didn't have their own vaccine!). 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[Reckoner]

13 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

At the start of the pandemic the shielding list was sent to local authorities to put provisions in place initially this was just a spreadsheet - without going into detail it was effectively unusable. Until LA's kicked back - some changes were made and it because more useful (after a lot of wasted time). The same then happened for track and trace cases which are passed onto LA's after national track and trace can't find people. 

Track and trace should be making use of the local authority and their knowledge - they have access to far more pieces of data about its residents than the NHS does they stand a better chance of finding you. The NHS has your medical records and that's about it. Again that handover is poorly designed and data is poorly provided it could all again save time money and infections. 

Seems to mirror a lot of the problems Victoria went through until they decentralised and put more autonomy in localised health teams (and stopped using pen, paper and fax machines.)

[st dan]

Even if we had a fully working, fit for purpose Test & Trace system widely available, I just don’t think it would be very effective at this stage of the pandemic in this country.
I don’t think enough people would take it seriously and many would not isolate for the 14 days as they are instructed to do, for a number or reasons. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by st dan

[Ozanne]

Just now, st dan said:

Even if we had a fully working, fit for purpose Test & Trace system widely available, I just don’t think it would be very effective at this stage of the pandemic in this country.
I don’t think enough people would take it seriously and many would not isolate for the 14 days as they are instructed to do.

We’ve also gone too far the other side for test and trace alone to get on top of this. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Ozanne

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

We’ve also gone too far the other side for test and trace alone to get on top of this. 

Exactly, T&T only really works if you can realistically monitor every case 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, st dan said:

Even if we had a fully working, fit for purpose Test & Trace system widely available, I just don’t think it would be very effective at this stage of the pandemic in this country.
I don’t think enough people would take it seriously and many would not isolate for the 14 days as they are instructed to do, for a number or reasons. 

18 million downloads ..... have these people downloaded it out of curiosity ? I mean that number is actually much better than other countries .... if only it worked properly ... I’m not doubting you I’m just confused why people would download it and then not follow instructions 

[FestivalJamie]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Imagine if everyone in an area that’s about to be moved into a higher tier just moved to another part of the country. It would make any restrictions pointless and ensure the spread of the virus 🤷‍♂️

I could move back to my parents house and therefore not have to comply with tier 2 restrictions in London and just commute to work instead 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Ryan1984]

8 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s a free license to give millions to their friends. They will want to keep it going

And keep it broken for as long as possible. The more they dick about, the more money their friends get...

[Crazyfool01]

No point in the tiers anymore ... cases rising everywhere and quickly north /south divide beginning to be less so ... in summary we are fucked with no circuit break let’s just do it  

[JoeyT]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Exactly, T&T only really works if you can realistically monitor every case 

It's not worth a penny this T&T system.

People at my workplace have been told to self isolate even though they weren't in contact with a positive case within the 48 hours the guideline states.

The lady who received the positive test tried explaining to the person from T&T on the phone (who was saying anyone who they had been in contact with for the last 14 days had to self isolate) that those weren't the rules but got nowhere.

Our workplace is now trying to get in contact with T&T to tell them they've made a mistake but had zero luck with that.

Absolute farce.

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

No point in the tiers anymore ... cases rising everywhere and quickly north /south divide beginning to be less so ... in summary we are fucked with no circuit break let’s just do it  

We’re just waiting for Cumface to come up with a catchy 3 word slogan for it. 

[Wellyboot]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

18 million downloads ..... have these people downloaded it out of curiosity ? I mean that number is actually much better than other countries .... if only it worked properly ... I’m not doubting you I’m just confused why people would download it and then not follow instructions 

I only downloaded it because the salon i go to for my nails asked all clients to get it before attending their appointment. Thats the only reason i got it