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When will this shit end?

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2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

This hindsight think is complete bollocks. Plenty of people had foresight.

Yes, apparently we can’t critique the governments handling of this because of hindsight. Another convenient way to let them completely off the hook. What will it take for people to stay criticising and calling them out!? Plenty of other countries could see what was coming, had the same type of briefings and acted. We didn’t, but that’s ok because no one can see into the future. It’s fine then for the PM to skip 5 COBRA meetings and swan off on holiday. Let them off the hook for everything. 

Edited by Ozanne

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37 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Michael O’Leary sees it the opposite! Ryanair planning a blitz on cut-price tickets as soon as they can fly again. Reckons there’s massive pent up demand. Sees it as an opportunity to corner more of the market, push his competitors out of business. Who knows! Same rules as public transport and it should work just fine (I felt ok on a flight at the start of this, everyone getting on wore a mask (it was in the Middle East), if it went back to that, I’d fly again). 

Cut price tickets to start with but once you have a monopoly or limited competition you can charge what you like, add to that the pressure on government to raise extra revenue to pay for all this and I see additional taxes on airlines and the fuel they use, at the moment they get it tax free, easily justifiable to reduce carbon footprint.

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21 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Does anyone know what level the mandatory mask wearing in other countries goes to? Like are homemade ones helping or is it purely government supplied good ones? 

The final graph in my above post basically models the impact of high efficacy masks worn by a lower % of the population and lower efficacy (homemade) masks worn by a greater % of the population...both scenarios have the potential to lower the R0 and reduce the spread. Ideally, you would to a randomised trial looking at the impact of different masks, but we don’t really have time for that, so string public health messages on how to use any kind of face covering safely will help.

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1 minute ago, gizmoman said:

Cut price tickets to start with but once you have a monopoly or limited competition you can charge what you like, add to that the pressure on government to raise extra revenue to pay for all this and I see additional taxes on airlines and the fuel they use, at the moment they get it tax free, easily justifiable to reduce carbon footprint.

You’re probably correct about levies on travel, but at the moment, oil prices are rock bottom, so would probably off-set it. Ryanair (and most major airlines) hedge their fuel costs, I expect O’Leary has factored all this in, he’s a fairly shrewd operator (I don’t like him by the way, or the way he does business, but I can’t argue with his success)...

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Really interesting interview re the Swedish situation,

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks: - UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based - The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only - This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product” - The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better - The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact - The paper was very much too pessimistic - Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway - The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown - The results will eventually be similar for all countries - Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people. - The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% - At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

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24 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

The final graph in my above post basically models the impact of high efficacy masks worn by a lower % of the population and lower efficacy (homemade) masks worn by a greater % of the population...both scenarios have the potential to lower the R0 and reduce the spread. Ideally, you would to a randomised trial looking at the impact of different masks, but we don’t really have time for that, so string public health messages on how to use any kind of face covering safely will help.

What do you think the R0 is in the UK right now, with lockdown on?

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2 hours ago, Madyaker said:

All this commuting is dumb anyway. Some guys I know spend 3 hours a day in their cars ffs. It’s not good for the head. 

Yep that's me, can be more if there is an accident.... stupid thing is I could easily do my job from home, but my employer are quite old school in that you must be sitting physically next to your team to be effective! 

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1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

What do you think the R0 is in the UK right now, with lockdown on?

Can only extrapolate from where we are in Ireland, which is 0.7...can’t be far off that in the UK as new cases and fatalities are pretty flat, so when you hit a plateau, it’s close to 1. 

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44 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Really interesting interview re the Swedish situation,

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks: - UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based - The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only - This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product” - The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better - The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact - The paper was very much too pessimistic - Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway - The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown - The results will eventually be similar for all countries - Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people. - The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% - At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

Let’s just hope he’s right, as that would be absolutely awesome. 

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1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Yes, apparently we can’t critique the governments handling of this because of hindsight. Another convenient way to let them completely off the hook. What will it take for people to stay criticising and calling them out!? Plenty of other countries could see what was coming, had the same type of briefings and acted. We didn’t, but that’s ok because no one can see into the future. It’s fine then for the PM to skip 5 COBRA meetings and swan off on holiday. Let them off the hook for everything. 

yeah, it is bullshit.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/government-under-fire-failing-pandemic-recommendations

 

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39 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

Yep that's me, can be more if there is an accident.... stupid thing is I could easily do my job from home, but my employer are quite old school in that you must be sitting physically next to your team to be effective! 

Since I've gone freelance and work remotely I get so much more done. When I used to work in an open plan office I'd be permanently distracted, looking forward to that 1 hour I'm allowed of sunlight per day at lunchtime (walking round Salford Quays looking over my shoulder), being talked at all the time, pointless meetings thats clearly weren't needed as i now do them over chat software with no ill effects.

Obviously some are the opposite and prefer the social interaction an office brings so places will need to accommodate that, but if the day to day general communication can be done remotely (that maybe was a meeting before) and people can get to the important meetings, I think options should be given. 

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The British love to lick the boot. The Tories can mess up to the point of huge numbers of needless deaths and they will still vote them in. Clown country.  

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12 minutes ago, SalviaPlath said:

The British love to lick the boot. The Tories can mess up to the point of huge numbers of needless deaths and they will still vote them in. Clown country.  

Not sure we are unique in that !! 

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11 minutes ago, SalviaPlath said:

The British love to lick the boot. The Tories can mess up to the point of huge numbers of needless deaths and they will still vote them in. Clown country.  

That’s the thing, I know loads of people that think Boris is doing a great job and the government are succeeding in keeping us safe.

My prediction is that Boris comes out of this as almost like a war hero, having survived it, and the Tories rocket up in the popularity polls. Also, they can get away with the possible negative repercussions of Brexit, as any economic downturn will be blamed on the Pandemic, not on Brexit.

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43 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

EV6YrcpWAAAhzLh.jpg

Waaayyy to early to tell if what the Swedish guy is saying is correct yet, but as long as their health service isn’t overwhelmed then their deaths may well peak well before the others on that chart do. Only time will tell.

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6 minutes ago, TKOCF said:

That’s the thing, I know loads of people that think Boris is doing a great job and the government are succeeding in keeping us safe.

My prediction is that Boris comes out of this as almost like a war hero, having survived it, and the Tories rocket up in the popularity polls. Also, they can get away with the possible negative repercussions of Brexit, as any economic downturn will be blamed on the Pandemic, not on Brexit.

I know, it's staggering. It seems for a big portion of the public they can do no wrong when the evidence is overwhlemingly to the contrary.  

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55 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Since I've gone freelance and work remotely I get so much more done. When I used to work in an open plan office I'd be permanently distracted, looking forward to that 1 hour I'm allowed of sunlight per day at lunchtime (walking round Salford Quays looking over my shoulder), being talked at all the time, pointless meetings thats clearly weren't needed as i now do them over chat software with no ill effects.

Obviously some are the opposite and prefer the social interaction an office brings so places will need to accommodate that, but if the day to day general communication can be done remotely (that maybe was a meeting before) and people can get to the important meetings, I think options should be given. 

Totally agree on productivity and with my own circumstances it will be interesting if they change their way of working but I'm doubtful when my own manager before we left doesn't even think Skype can be done to do a performance review, as it's just not the same and feelings get missed - its really old school tbh 

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All along govt have been saying they have been following scientific advice...so when goes tits up they have someone to blame. Very convenient. I look forward to what Vallance and Whitty have to say once all this is over.

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8 minutes ago, El Matador said:

Why is South Korea on the graph but not Italy or Spain? 

I don't know, probably some commie conspiracy.

Italy/Spain much higher at this point, the main point of graph is showing how Sweden increasing compared to it's neighbours. Not sure why S Korea on there. The charts are all in here

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#confirmed-cases-how-did-the-total-and-daily-number-change-over-time

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