When will this shit end?

[Matt42]

I've not checked this thread in a few days and genuinely feel happier as a person. Have I missed anything? 

[Justiceforcedave]

First member of my staff to get an isolation beep 30 minutes before their shift on a fully booked Saturday. Thankfully we were able to sort some last minute cover, but this is going to get much worse come the 19th unless something changes.

Lot's of businesses are going to have no one to work in them!

[kalifire]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh get of yohr high horse. They are logical reasons why July 19th is better.

No high horse here, just a different opinion. I fully accept there are good arguments for an earlier opening. I just, on balance, don’t come down on that side of the fence. I respect your right to think differently 👍

[Chapple12345]

The nail on the head has been hit 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

35 minutes ago, kalifire said:

This “it would just keep going” argument doesn’t hold true. I agree in principle that we shouldn’t wait around for people who’ve been offered a jab but haven’t taken one, however the target is for everyone over 18 to have been offered a first jab by July 19th.

We could wait for those with one jab to get their second, given the protection is significantly stronger at that point. It would be a one time wait of a few short weeks and result in a population as protected as they could be, instead of gambling with the health and potentially lives of millions who are now subjected to this unfortunate “if you don’t like it, stay at home” selfishness. 

Most of us hoped that a return to normality might be marked by something resembling care for others. Some (the minority) of voices in this thread confirm that sadly it will take more than a global pandemic to be rid of the more toxic attitudes in society. 

Assuming everyone had one jab on the 19th you then have to wait 8 weeks for the second. Then three weeks for full protection (which is something like 30% more) then three weeks for that to kick in. Thats 11 weeks. 

Those who are yet to be jabbed had a miniscule chance of death from Covid without any vaccine at all so you tell me who these millions who are going to die? Where are they? Why have they not already been jabbed? 

Care for others? How is the nation going to care for anyone if there are less and less businesses paying business rates and people working for them? Who is going to fund the NHS? Schools? 

 

[Ozanne]

 

[incident]

46 minutes ago, kalifire said:

This “it would just keep going” argument doesn’t hold true. I agree in principle that we shouldn’t wait around for people who’ve been offered a jab but haven’t taken one, however the target is for everyone over 18 to have been offered a first jab by July 19th.

As has been pointed out several times now, that target has already been effectively met - more than two weeks ago. Vaccine centres across the country have been operating on a walk-in basis with (for the most part) no or minimal queues since approximately June 25th, and this is reflected in the relatively small number of first doses given out over the past 2 weeks.

If anyone isn't at least 2 weeks from their first dose by now, it has to be considered to be by choice - either they delayed getting their first dose or they're not intending to have it at all.

[stuartbert two hats]

41 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I've not checked this thread in a few days and genuinely feel happier as a person. Have I missed anything? 

If anything it's been worse than ever.

 

Edit, actually some encouraging, sustained signs of slowdown in the growth rate.

Edited July 10, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, kalifire said:

No high horse here, just a different opinion. I fully accept there are good arguments for an earlier opening. I just, on balance, don’t come down on that side of the fence. I respect your right to think differently 👍

You're the one calling people selfish for wanting to open up on July 19th

[Crazyfool01]

Those heady days of this thread being helpful supportive and considerate of others …. Wonder where that switch got flipped !!!  The deaths seem to be slowly climbing again … (yep I know it’s not as high as before but for the opening everything up people when does that number start causing worries ? ) and yes I know people die from other things 

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[Matt42]

Again, wall to wall media coverage that we shouldnt reopen in the lead up to the date. This will happen every single time.

[kalifire]

50 minutes ago, incident said:

If anyone isn't at least 2 weeks from their first dose by now, it has to be considered to be by choice

Assuming that’s true, 2 weeks from a first jab still puts them at risk from 19th July. Hospitalisations and deaths are already increasing.  

14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

You're the one calling people selfish for wanting to open up on July 19th

I was quite specific that it’s people who’re aggressively suggesting that people who don’t like it can stay at home who are selfish. I stand by that. Doesn’t translate that everyone who thinks easing protection on that date is necessarily selfish. 

Edited July 10, 2021 by kalifire

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Those heady days of this thread being helpful supportive and considerate of others …. Wonder where that switch got flipped !!!  The deaths seem to be slowly climbing again … (yep I know it’s not as high as before but for the opening everything up people when does that number start causing worries ? ) and yes I know people die from other things 

What's the highest number of deaths from flu we've accepted on a daily basis?

 

I dont want to cold about it but if we are looking at it on a broad basis, there are loads of things we could do stop deaths we don't do for wider societal ones. Covid should be looked at in these terms.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Again, wall to wall media coverage that we shouldnt reopen in the lead up to the date. This will happen every single time.

Fake SAGE getting their good clothes and aftershave  ready for their media appearances 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Again, wall to wall media coverage that we shouldnt reopen in the lead up to the date. This will happen every single time.

And will inevitably fade if there aren’t massive issues ? Would you agree ? 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

What's the highest number of deaths from flu we've accepted on a daily basis?

 

I dont want to cold about it but if we are looking at it on a broad basis, there are loads of things we could do stop deaths we don't do for wider societal ones. Covid should be looked at in these terms.

I don’t know but do we get 50 people die per day from flu in summer ? Because we aren’t far from that now … and I’d be suprised if we don’t go back to 100 deaths per day again … just looking at how things are now … with delays taken into account … of course it should be looked at in terms of overall deaths 

[incident]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Those heady days of this thread being helpful supportive and considerate of others …. Wonder where that switch got flipped !!!  The deaths seem to be slowly climbing again … (yep I know it’s not as high as before but for the opening everything up people when does that number start causing worries ? ) and yes I know people die from other things 

I don't think it's helpful to set a defined number of deaths as being either acceptable or bad. The context is more important than the absolute number. As a very simple example, 10 deaths on 20 cases is a genuine problem, whereas 10 deaths on five million cases really isn't.

As a better example of where context is needed - there's 2 deaths numbers (actually, there's more than 2, but for the purposes of this comparison 2 is enough) - the number most commonly reported is Deaths within 28 days of a positive test, but the other major metric available is Deaths with COVID-19 on the Death Certificate.

While both have risen slightly, Deaths within 28 days of a postive test has gone from a low of ~6 per day to currently ~22 per day whereas Deaths with COVID mentioned has gone from a low of ~6 to currently ~14 per day. So is all of the (small) reported rise even down to COVID, or just people who've tested positive then died of something else?

When the numbers are this low, it'd be helpful to drill down further into the specifics but that information isn't public knowledge yet.

[kalifire]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

What's the highest number of deaths from flu we've accepted on a daily basis?

I dont want to cold about it but if we are looking at it on a broad basis, there are loads of things we could do stop deaths we don't do for wider societal ones. Covid should be looked at in these terms.

Not sure what you mean by “accepted” but there are things we could easily do to reduce health issues caused by seasonal flu. That we don’t is not a good argument for not doing anything about something unseasonal and more threatening. 

[BobWillis2]

 

Long covid 2nd most common symptom, lack of taste and smell. It’s not really the debilitating crisis we’ve been led to believe is it? 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, incident said:

I don't think it's helpful to set a defined number of deaths as being either acceptable or bad. The context is more important than the absolute number. As a very simple example, 10 deaths on 20 cases is a genuine problem, whereas 10 deaths on five million cases really isn't.

As a better example of where context is needed - there's 2 deaths numbers (actually, there's more than 2, but for the purposes of this comparison 2 is enough) - the number most commonly reported is Deaths within 28 days of a positive test, but the other major metric available is Deaths with COVID-19 on the Death Certificate.

While both have risen slightly, Deaths within 28 days of a postive test has gone from a low of ~6 per day to currently ~22 per day whereas Deaths with COVID mentioned has gone from a low of ~6 to currently ~14 per day. So is all of the (small) reported rise even down to COVID, or just people who've tested positive then died of something else?

When the numbers are this low, it'd be helpful to drill down further into the specifics but that information isn't public knowledge yet.

I’m not sure I go with the difference on that deaths within 28 days of a positive test line … those people aren’t going to be active members of society in that time they are going to likely be ill at home and isolating or in hospital working their way unfortunately towards icu and not making it through … the numbers that won’t be are surely going to be absolutely tiny … unless I’ve completely misunderstood … 

[Ozanne]

 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I don’t know but do we get 50 people die per day from flu in summer ? Because we aren’t far from that now … and I’d be suprised if we don’t go back to 100 deaths per day again … just looking at how things are now … with delays taken into account … of course it should be looked at in terms of overall deaths 

But then as per the tweets I posted earlier, we get an exit wave in Autumn and winter which would be worse.

 

No good options at this stage.

[Ozanne]

 

[incident]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

I’m not sure I go with the difference on that deaths within 28 days of a positive test line … those people aren’t going to be active members of society in that time they are going to likely be ill at home and isolating or in hospital working their way unfortunately towards icu and not making it through … the numbers that won’t be are surely going to be absolutely tiny … unless I’ve completely misunderstood … 

Basically - people are being tested on their way into hospital. An infection will get picked up even if they're not showing any COVID symptoms, and are in hospital for something entirely unrelated.

If they then die of that something unrelated, the fact that they did test positive means that they show up on the "within 28 days of a positive test" number.

The number of deaths at the moment is way, way too low to make any definitive judgement on this - but it's noticeable to me that in the previous waves, the "COVID metioned" number was generally higher than the "28 days" number - and right now it's actually the other way around albeit both sets of numbers are in the low double digits.