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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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4 minutes ago, Havors said:

Does this imply a reduction in growth rate again? There are that many graphs its hard to keep track of which one is for which haha 

yes, the growth rate per week is falling, so cases were increasing by over 70% per week at the start of the month, but now they are 'only' increasing by 43% per week

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21 minutes ago, st dan said:

I know there are many factors in play (the main one being how effective the vaccines are in reducing hospital admissions and deaths), but on the face of it, the logic to remove all restrictions right as we are seeing case numbers rocket is a puzzling one to get your head around isn’t it? If you’re applying logic and common sense. 

The logic seems to be it's going to happen anyway, so unless we tighten restrictions, which is politically unfeasible, it's unlikely to speed up that much by reopening things. And there has to be a ceiling at herd immunity eventually anyway.

38 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

As you can tell, I generally agree with you, but I think you've got it wrong here. For young people, who are most of those on single doses, four weeks after the first jab gives profound protection on top of the natural immunity, particularly for the mRNA vaccines.

 

Fair cop, I misunderstood the nature of the drop off - it only being against infection not severe disease. 

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

we'll see...Whitty was suggesting they're worried winter could be pretty bad...can't imagine it will be anything like full lockdown or situation we were in last christmas, but they might want to try and stop various viruses spreading if looking dicey.

Surely in the wonder they would only bring back small restrictions if they did at all, say masks indoors and a rule of 6 (for example)?

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1 minute ago, zahidf said:

But then if its still high ( which it will be under current restrictions) when will there be the political will to remove the rest of the restrictions? over the winter? when schools come back?

don't know. when all double jabbed. I mean, the only restriction I personally think they could keep is masks on some public transport. But, I do get the argument that now might be the best time...just seems kind of risky.

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2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

But then if its still high ( which it will be under current restrictions) when will there be the political will to remove the rest of the restrictions? over the winter? when schools come back?

It'd be when they start naturally going down. Ideally (medically) what you want is a slow trickle of infections that places no strain on the NHS as we edge our way to herd immunity. Without Delta that's probably what we would be seeing now. As it is it would need fairly harsh restrictions to keep numbers that low so it's not seen as worth doing.

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Just now, steviewevie said:

don't know. when all double jabbed. I mean, the only restriction I personally think they could keep is masks on some public transport. But, I do get the argument that now might be the best time...just seems kind of risky.

But that will coincide with all the schools coming back. And the scientific advice will be NOT to get rid now, 'sorry'.

I think we should ask more why restrictions should be in place, not why they should be removed

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3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Depends what you mean by lockdown. They may well go down if we shut hospitality and schools, but kept everything else open. Not that I'm actually advocating that.

I’m a bit sick of the false dichotomy of “lockdown” and “everything open”. In reality there’s a huge spectrum, and we’re a lot closer to everything open now (though with travel and isolation we still won’t be after the 19th). Similarly the lockdowns have all been different flavours.

I will say cases were still going down in phase 2 which was outdoor hospitality- it was only once we allowed indoor mingling the numbers started to go Pete Tong; with vaccines in place I’d imagine that would lower cases pretty sharpish. Obviously whether that’s politically palatable is quite another matter.

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3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

School holidays will shut the schools in a couple of weeks. fingers crossed that will work to get numbers down

Yes sounds like this is part of the thinking behind the timing. Not sure it will work though, with half the population squashed together on beaches in Devon and Cornwall.


Also I don’t understand why the Government is continuing with the track and trace app, surely we will end up isolating every time we go to a cafe or a pub?

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12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

why can't you have somewhere inbetween...which is what we have had for the majority of the last year?

Because the R number is > 1 under those restrictions anyway. Significantly.

 

To put it bluntly, with no change at all to the rules, the vast majority of the people who’ve not had covid or been fully vaccinated yet are going to catch covid over the next 2 months. Opening up makes this happen faster but doesnt change the ultimate picture. Cases soar until we hit herd immunity and then drop off. This will happen with an opening (very quickly) or under current restrictions (slightly less rapidly)

 

This is why the scrapping of masks is pretty irrelevant. The current restrictions are making almost no difference anyway so continuing with even less stringent ones makes zero sense.

 

The only way the government can actually suppress this wave is to reimpose restrictions. The optimist in me thinks that outdoor hospitality and outdoor socialising in groups of 6 could stay but they’d need to be closing pubs and banning indoor household mixing to get R < 1. There’s no desire for that any more so we won’t be suppressing this wave, we’re going for herd immunity.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

 

I’m a bit sick of the false dichotomy of “lockdown” and “everything open”. In reality there’s a huge spectrum, and we’re a lot closer to everything open now (though with travel and isolation we still won’t be after the 19th). Similarly the lockdowns have all been different flavours.

I will say cases were still going down in phase 2 which was outdoor hospitality- it was only once we allowed indoor mingling the numbers started to go Pete Tong; with vaccines in place I’d imagine that would lower cases pretty sharpish. Obviously whether that’s politically palatable is quite another matter.

Sorry, yeah - I should have said "indoor" hospitality. Also agree on the political aspect.

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3 minutes ago, Mr Boo said:

Yes sounds like this is part of the thinking behind the timing. Not sure it will work though, with half the population squashed together on beaches in Devon and Cornwall.


Also I don’t understand why the Government is continuing with the track and trace app, surely we will end up isolating every time we go to a cafe or a pub?

I can think of fewer places less likely to spread covid than a breezy beach.

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7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I think we should ask more why restrictions should be in place, not why they should be removed

that's easy though, right? because cases are going up and not everyone immunised. Agree with school holidays though, seems a useful time to allow things to go a bit.

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4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

They also aren't using AstraZeneca and won't get Pfizer till Sept

 

What the hell are Japan playing at???

well, they don't want the olympics for a start...but yeah, vaccine rollout has been really shit. My partner's family live in Japan and have not been vaccinated yet and don't seem that bothered about it either. I keep telling the missus to tell her mum to get vaccinated asap, the delta variant could well wreak havoc in that country..but...nah, not happening. At same time overall deaths in Japan has been a lot lower than here, so maybe there is less urgency.

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1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

This just is not true.  Maybe against injection but not against anything serious.  

Mass Infection will obviously lead to an increase in more serious reactions, you dense fool. It’s inarguable that waiting longer would lower avoidable hospitalisation and death. 

Edited by kalifire
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/07/england-covid-reopening-plan-dangerous-experiment-ministers-told

 

Dr Jacky Davis, an NHS consultant radiologist, said: “In going for what looks like hybrid herd immunity, which was what this government went for in first place and then was slapped down, they are conducting a very dangerous experiment.

“We’re concerned about the future of young people and their education as it may be that it will have serious repercussions on their health going forward. It seems very dangerous when it could be stopped by something as minimal as wearing a mask and a degree of social distancing. The government has put all its eggs in the vaccine basket.”

  Edited by MrBarry465
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51 minutes ago, Mr Boo said:

Also I don’t understand why the Government is continuing with the track and trace app, surely we will end up isolating every time we go to a cafe or a pub?

I'm convinced it's so when people stop using it or ignore the advice to isolate, it'll give them a cover reason to re-impose restrictions if they're needed without admitted they were wrong, they'll just blame the public for stopping using the app. There's no other reason to do it.

And if the predictions are wrong, and hospitalisations do start to go up more than expected, or the peak is further off that we thought, they will have to re-introduce restrictions. And they know that. They're betting on the same horse most of us are but they're also covering in case they're wrong.

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10 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/07/england-covid-reopening-plan-dangerous-experiment-ministers-told

 

Dr Jacky Davis, an NHS consultant radiologist, said: “In going for what looks like hybrid herd immunity, which was what this government went for in first place and then was slapped down, they are conducting a very dangerous experiment.

“We’re concerned about the future of young people and their education as it may be that it will have serious repercussions on their health going forward. It seems very dangerous when it could be stopped by something as minimal as wearing a mask and a degree of social distancing. The government has put all its eggs in the vaccine basket.”

 

"Vaccines are our route out of this" is what Hancock said many months ago. What are the scientists so surprised about? This was always the plan, Delta variant or no variant.  The vaccines are also far more effective than we ever could have hoped for, so yes we are putting all our eggs in the vaccine basket cos they're bloody good! Variants were always inevitable given the number of Covid cases globally and guess what, they're always going to get more transmissible, as that's what they need to do to survive, especially with downward pressure from the vaccines. 

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