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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

If we locked down every winter think alot of people would lob themselves off a bridge. What a miserable existence that would be.

There might be times in winter where we need to do 'circuit breaker' lockdowns for a couple weeks at a time.

Thinking there is going to be mass suicides because of this is a little bit silly.

But the mental health crisis in the country needs to be addressed, regardless of lockdowns and covid. 

Mentally unwell people were struggling before COVID and mentally unwell people will be struggling after it all ends. 

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18 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

The NHS doesn't get overwhelmed though does it ?   It gets stretched to high hell - but overwhelmed ?   

Overwhelmed is when we have people passing away in backed up ambulances.  Doesn't really happen does it

*Okay I accept you might be able to find the odd report but its hardly often 

 

That's a question we really need the government and NHS big-wigs to address properly and comprehensively. The official position is that that the NHS was not overwhelmed at any point during the pandemic, despite the fact that during each of the three waves patients who could have been saved were left to die either in hospitals or at home.

The excess deaths in hospital during the first wave was 7000, in private homes 25000, and in care homes 25000. 50000 excess deaths not in hospital, 7000 in hospital. Now while not all of those 50000 could have been helped in a hospital, if even half of them could have been then the numbers are quite scary.

Yet the head of the NHS and the cabinet say that they were not overwhelmed.

Because yeah, you can reduce the numbers coming into the NHS by refusing to actually pick up people in ambulances and leaving them to die at home. What's scary to me is the complete refusal of the government to face this means we won't have done the work to determine what the actual capacity of the NHS is.

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Just now, MrBarry465 said:

There might be times in winter where we need to do 'circuit breaker' lockdowns for a couple weeks at a time.

Thinking there is going to be mass suicides because of this is a little bit silly.

But the mental health crisis in the country needs to be addressed, regardless of lockdowns and covid. 

Mentally unwell people were struggling before COVID and mentally unwell people will be struggling after it all ends. 

Circuit breaker lockdowns haven't worked once. They have all led to months long lockdowns. 

Sorry, are you seriously saying you'd be fine to live under lockdown every single winter going forward? Madness.

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3 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Sorry, are you seriously saying you'd be fine to live under lockdown every single winter going forward? Madness.

I didn't say anything about being 'fine' with it.

I'm just saying, you can't rule these things out.....

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14 hours ago, rascalpete said:

Or we could move her to the 2022 headliner thread, now that would be a plot twist. She could bring out Deepti as special guest 

She's the exact right level of fame now to end up with a spot at the University of Glastonbury in The Park. Maybe *that* was her plan all along!

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

The JVCI guideline say it should only not be offered to under 40s if meant there was no delay in the overall programme and rates are low. As there is now a delay in the overall programme and more Covid around, you and your mates would have been more at risk from Covid than a blood clot

Has it slowed things that much though? The other point here is that AZ isn't that effective against Delta until you get 2 doses, and it's a minimum 8 weeks between doses. Pfizer/Moderna are more effective with a single dose and you can do a 4 week gap. I assume once we get to the final batch of vaccinations we'll move to a 4-week window, which means everyone double-jabbed 4 weeks before they would be if we were still using AZ. 

If we're looking at getting the most first doses as soon as possible then yeah, we've definitely slowed down. But I'm not sure we'll hit the "all adults double-dosed" at a later date - or at least not by much. Having said that, there's probably a cleverer way of doing it that would have saved time. But until Delta happened we didn't really rate the second jab as as important.

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I don’t particularly like Declamare as a guy but his analysis is usually pretty spot on. It’s absolutely clear there is going to be a big exit wave (in terms of case numbers) over the coming weeks, couple of months.

 

The key thing is that we don’t panic when we start seeing insane case numbers in a few weeks. We’re looking at a 10 day doubling under step 3 so it’ll likely double twice more before freedom day even happens (70,000+ cases a day before the 19th) and then start doubling even faster (7-8 day doubling) once we move to unlimited indoor gatherings.

 

My message is: DO NOT PANIC WHEN WE SEE 100,000+ CASES PER DAY.

 

Its important to remember that case numbers in themselves don’t mean a thing. They’re just a number. The reason we used to panic about them is that they’d inevitably translate into hospitalisations and deaths a few weeks down the line. This is no longer the case (other than vulnerable anti-vaxxers. But we aren’t putting society on hold for those morons, and the unlucky few who the vaccine didn’t work on)

 

We really aren’t far away from herd immunity now so we should think of 100,000 cases a day as extra vaccines in the race to herd immunity. 

You're right, for sure (although I think 100,000 would be okay but 200,000 would get to be a worry) - the problem here is going to be how the government can message this. Saying "go out and catch it, you'll be fine" won't work. With that many cases, people will be afraid, especially when they see their friends getting ill  - they might not end up in hospital but people won't want to catch it. The problem with the idea of "go out and get us herd immunity" is the huge number of people who will go "yeah, you do that, I'll stay in another month and let you do the work". And that's when you hit economic issues when all the support for businesses is taken away and they scale up for what they expect to be a big summer, and demand drops off.

(This isn't an argument to extend lockdown or anything, just the reality of the potential for more economoic impacts down the line)

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17 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

If we locked down every winter think alot of people would lob themselves off a bridge. What a miserable existence that would be.

Wouldn't be happy but would be fine if it was necessary. Especially if it were a regular, known thing - it'd be much easier as nothing would be scheduled over those weeks, so you wouldn't 'miss' anything, businesses would adapt and so on. 

I don't think anything COVID related would necessitate this though. 

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36 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

For someone obsessed with 'lockdown' ending, you spend a hell of a lot of time waiting in the shadows on this forum I'll give you that. 

My theory is you and Barry Fish are the same guy with two accounts arguing with yourself for some self indulgent amusement 

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5 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

You're right, for sure (although I think 100,000 would be okay but 200,000 would get to be a worry) - the problem here is going to be how the government can message this. Saying "go out and catch it, you'll be fine" won't work. With that many cases, people will be afraid, especially when they see their friends getting ill  - they might not end up in hospital but people won't want to catch it. The problem with the idea of "go out and get us herd immunity" is the huge number of people who will go "yeah, you do that, I'll stay in another month and let you do the work". And that's when you hit economic issues when all the support for businesses is taken away and they scale up for what they expect to be a big summer, and demand drops off.

(This isn't an argument to extend lockdown or anything, just the reality of the potential for more economoic impacts down the line)

I guess the hope is that most adults will be confident due to being fully vaccinated and the remaining 1/3 of younger people will be happy enough to go out and enjoy themselves with the protection of a single dose. I hope we do see good demand for hospitality and events after the 19th, although even slightly reduced demand is still better than being closed altogether. 

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49 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Wouldn't be happy but would be fine if it was necessary. Especially if it were a regular, known thing - it'd be much easier as nothing would be scheduled over those weeks, so you wouldn't 'miss' anything, businesses would adapt and so on. 

I don't think anything COVID related would necessitate this though. 

hibernation. Might do us some good.

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4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yes

Well therefore the numbers coming out about long Covid should be taken with a pinch of salt. 
Only reason I’m saying this is that I got Covid at the beginning of January, and feel back to normal except my smell is still way off. Wouldn’t even say it’s at 50% yet. So I certainly wouldn’t class myself as having ‘long Covid’, but I guess I technically would be included in the numbers if I was ever surveyed. 

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1 minute ago, st dan said:

Well therefore the numbers coming out about long Covid should be taken with a pinch of salt. 
Only reason I’m saying this is that I got Covid at the beginning of January, and feel back to normal except my smell is still way off. Wouldn’t even say it’s at 50% yet. So I certainly wouldn’t class myself as having ‘long Covid’, but I guess I technically would be included in the numbers if I was ever surveyed. 

Unless people divide it up I’m sure we won’t ever know … but certainly not worth dismissing the numbers … the nhs have set up special clinics and spent money on it …. Of course there will be a number of people with less severe long covid … and some that seem to be suffering more than 6 months later … as a friend of mine is … she is doing 3 hour working days at the moment … and struggling with that 

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6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Unless people divide it up I’m sure we won’t ever know … but certainly not worth dismissing the numbers … the nhs have set up special clinics and spent money on it …. Of course there will be a number of people with less severe long covid … and some that seem to be suffering more than 6 months later … as a friend of mine is … she is doing 3 hour working days at the moment … and struggling with that 

Yeah, I think it would be valuable to actually differentiate between the categories, because right now I would be included in the same category as your friend which I feel downplays the severity of this for some people, as well as over-inflating the numbers. I hope she is ok and improves in the months to come!

Edited by st dan
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13 minutes ago, st dan said:

Yeah, I think it would be valuable to actually differentiate between the categories, because right now I would be included in the same category as your friend which I feel downplays the severity of this for some people, as well as over-inflating the numbers. I hope she is ok and improves in the months to come!

Do we do this for any other outpatient type things that are the same general diagnosis … I have no idea ? I can’t think of any … 

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2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I'm thinking everyone on here is just one person.

Apart from the multiple stu Malinas accounts you mean …  the latest one isn’t too hard to spot 🙂 oh sorry yep just seen what u meant 🙂 

Edited by crazyfool1
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4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Do we do this for any other outpatient type things that are the same general diagnosis … I have no idea ? I can’t think of any … 

No I don’t think so either, but it seems like lots of experts (and Indy SAGE) are using ‘long Covid’ as one of the main reasons as to why we can’t rush out of restrictions too quickly. Would just be good to know just how likely this is, and how many people are genuinely suffering from life altering symptoms months later, and who just can’t smell their kids nappies (like me - wooo!)

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