When will this shit end?

[reflekting]

This feels like Independent SAGE have somehow found their way onto the Irish equivalent of real SAGE. Discussions of a further 2 weeks delay to indoor hospitality, likely to jump to 2 months if the government lap up this analysis. Reading my social feeds, it feels the public are about to turn and businesses may even consider reopening without approvals. 

[guypjfreak]

Just got call off to see dad is OK.. He was sick last night and but no temp.. Call this morning sounds worse.. Just done flow test we're OK so going to see if we can do the same down there.. Nightmare.. 

[efcfanwirral]

7 minutes ago, guypjfreak said:

Just got call off to see dad is OK.. He was sick last night and but no temp.. Call this morning sounds worse.. Just done flow test we're OK so going to see if we can do the same down there.. Nightmare.. 

To be fair don't panic too much- other illnesses exist remember! 

[st dan]

21 minutes ago, reflekting said:

This feels like Independent SAGE have somehow found their way onto the Irish equivalent of real SAGE. Discussions of a further 2 weeks delay to indoor hospitality, likely to jump to 2 months if the government lap up this analysis. Reading my social feeds, it feels the public are about to turn and businesses may even consider reopening without approvals. 

Modelling must be largely pointless at this stage, surely? It’s been shown to be completely off throughout the pandemic, and now we are throwing in variants with opinions spilt on the level of transmissibility, plus nobody seems to be quite sure how effective the vaccines are against actually catching the virus. They must be pie in the sky numbers, and therefore not sure how much use they are in terms of decision making etc. 

[stuartbert two hats]

58 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Encouraging thread on link between cases and hospitalisations:

 

 

Replying to my own post here, as if I'm on Twitter...

If this theory is correct, then it shows the danger of relying too much on statistical analysis without  the context of actually understanding the data. Our favourite covid centrist is good with a graph, but he understands maths, not biology. Looking at his graphs, the link between cases and hospitalisations appeared to still be remarkably strong (only 50% weaker IIRC) - real cause for concern with the current case numbers. But if the analysis from the thread above is borne out, then we really have put the morbidity risk from COVID to a low enough level to "not worry about cases"

Then all we'd need is more information on long COVID!

 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Replying to my own post here, as if I'm on Twitter...

If this theory is correct, then it shows the danger of relying too much on statistical analysis without  the context of actually understanding the data. Our favourite covid centrist is good with a graph, but he understands maths, not biology. Looking at his graphs, the link between cases and hospitalisations appeared to still be remarkably strong (only 50% weaker IIRC) - real cause for concern with the current case numbers. But if the analysis from the thread above is borne out, then we really have put the morbidity risk from COVID to a low enough level to "not worry about cases"

Then all we'd need is more information on long COVID!

 

It is very positive! Let's hope it bears out. 

[Kusy]

[fraybentos1]

Just now, Kusy said:

Makes sense. The amount of school some kids have missed is frightening.

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, Havors said:

It is very positive! Let's hope it bears out. 

And let's make sure we're really following what the data tells us, rather than what our hope and preconceptions want us to see.

 

Not easy!

[Havors]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

And let's make sure we're really following what the data tells us, rather than what our hope and preconceptions want us to see.

 

Not easy!

Well we can follow our hopes... whats the point without hope? haha! The experts need to follow the data though 😄 

[Stretlow]

21 minutes ago, st dan said:

Modelling must be largely pointless at this stage, surely? It’s been shown to be completely off throughout the pandemic, and now we are throwing in variants with opinions spilt on the level of transmissibility, plus nobody seems to be quite sure how effective the vaccines are against actually catching the virus. They must be pie in the sky numbers, and therefore not sure how much use they are in terms of decision making etc. 

One thing I've noticed throughout this is the models are used as an absolute and not as a guide as they should be. I'm not a model expert in that I don't create them however my company has some of the most advanced in its respective area, my job is to use them as effectively as possible with end users.

We've been creating and improving these models for 20 years based on a lot more data than is available for Covid and we know they're nowhere near 100% effective at what they do so we compensate accordingly.

I don't think I've seen anywhere someone put their neck on the line to say they're "x" % confident in the accuracy of these models.

 

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, Havors said:

Well we can follow our hopes... whats the point without hope? haha! The experts need to follow the data though 😄 

I'm going to try to follow the data. I'm sure I'll fail many times, but that's my aim.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Sexy Saj calling out the thugs who harassed Whitty. What a health secretary, what a guy😍😍

[JoeyT]

 

[Nobody Interesting]

Standon Calling music festival will go ahead at full capacity this summer, its organisers say.

The event is scheduled to take place between 22 and 25 July in Hertfordshire, with Arlo Parks, Bastille, Craig David and De La Soul among the performers.

About 15,000 people are set to attend and a negative pre-event lateral flow test will be required.

Founder and director Alex Trenchard says organisers decided to "go for it" after reviewing data from the government's pilot events programme and listening to the comments of new Health Secretary Sajid Javid yesterday, when he said ministers saw "no reason" to delay the final easing of restrictions in England beyond 19 July.

If it goes ahead as planned the independent festival will be one of the first to take place this summer outside the government's pilot programme - just days after remaining lockdown restrictions are due to be lifted.

[DeanoL]

16 hours ago, steviewevie said:

What Javid said about lifting of remaining restrictions in England on 19 July

This is what Sajid Javid told MPs about going ahead with the lifting of remaining lockdown restrictions for England on 19 July. He said:

I spent my first day as health secretary just yesterday looking at the data and testing it to the limit.

While we decided not to bring forward step 4, we see no reason to go beyond July 19, because, in truth, no date we choose comes with zero risk for Covid.

We know we cannot simply eliminate it, we have to learn to live with it.

We also know that people and businesses need certainty, so we want every step to be irreversible.

And make no mistake, the restrictions on our freedom, they must come to an end.

We owe it to the British people, who have sacrificed so much, to restore their freedoms as quickly as we possibly can and not to wait a moment longer than we need to.

With the numbers heading in the right direction, all while we protect more and more people each day, July 19 remains our target date.

The prime minister has called it out ‘terminus date’. For me, July 19 is not only the end of the line, but the start of an exciting new journey for our country.

Are we going to let that pass? Really? Are we that into Sajid Javid? In a prepared statement, while cases are going up, hospitalisations are going up, and deaths are going up, the new health secretary said "with the numbers heading in the right direction"! 

5 hours ago, kalifire said:

And after months of stoking fear about an extremely unlikely side effect, restricting AZ to over 50's, then over 60's, today they've said absolutely anyone can have it, It's now an AZ free for all.

If you agreed with the logic that said under 40s should have got AZ here, then Australia shouldn't have been using it at all. As that logic was all based around chance of side effects versus chance of getting seriously ill with COVID. Chance of getting seriously ill with COVID in Australia is tiny. That said, it's fair to let people make an individual choice but Australia and Aotearoa are in a very different places to us - you could even argue there's no real reason for them to be using any experimental vaccine at this point - though I'd argue Pfizer at least has been used in so many people with negligible side effects it's not longer really experimental.

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Are we going to let that pass? Really? Are we that into Sajid Javid? In a prepared statement, while cases are going up, hospitalisations are going up, and deaths are going up, the new health secretary said "with the numbers heading in the right direction"! 

If you agreed with the logic that said under 40s should have got AZ here, then Australia shouldn't have been using it at all. As that logic was all based around chance of side effects versus chance of getting seriously ill with COVID. Chance of getting seriously ill with COVID in Australia is tiny. That said, it's fair to let people make an individual choice but Australia and Aotearoa are in a very different places to us - you could even argue there's no real reason for them to be using any experimental vaccine at this point - though I'd argue Pfizer at least has been used in so many people with negligible side effects it's not longer really experimental.

AZN isn't experimental either.... 

 

All the vaccines have been vigorously tested. 

[DeanoL]

 

2 hours ago, Chapple12345 said:

I've just lost all sense of what to believe these last few days in all honesty, there's so much division and every piece of data contradicts the other so nothing ever really adds up as to what we're being told. I'm just gonna stay postive and know the vaccines are doing an amazing job and will continue to do so as the population continues to be vaccinated and think its likely we'll reopen the 19th with the data how it is/stays low 

This is actually a real problem right now. It's part of the reason for the delay in re-opening. Yes, the models were wrong. But it's not sufficient to just go "the models predicting disaster were wrong, so we should open up". We have to understand why the models were wrong. Them being wrong means we missed something, which means an unknown, which in a global pandemic is a bit scary, even if on the surface the unknown seems to be working to help rather than hinder you. 

There's a broad feeling right now, and one I share, that everything looks like it'll be okay - deaths and hospitalisations aren't going up much, cases aren't exploding up - but for science (and hence a government committed to following the science) it's not safe unless we understand why and ensure we don't accidentally stop doing whatever it is that's making everything okay.

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Swing and a miss.

 

All this article proves is that the standard face nappies that us peasants are using are as useful as a chocolate teapot and that you need a proper respiratory mask to be protected. 

Masks protect other people, not you, that was always the case. They don't block COVID, they never have, what they do is stop your breath and all the particles in it shooting out in a straight line in whatever direction your face is pointing, and instead diffuse it into the air around you with less force. 

Hence masks work if you also have social distancing - they stop your breath travelling more than 1m and you're meant to be staying more than 1m away from anyone not in your group. 

They have a very limited impact on their own but that's why they've never been advised to be used on their own.

I appreciate in reality people have given up on the 1m+ rule while still following the mask rule in places, but what can you do...

[zahidf]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Are they going to release to public the acceptable deaths number?!

Do you need to know?

[DeanoL]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Fixed that for you

So "slightly up" and "pretty flat" meaning also, "slightly up". Remind me again, what's the right direction, is it up or down?

I'm not arguing whether the numbers are a problem or not, I'm arguing that it's a fucking idiotic thing to say in a speech given the news is actually good all around and there are plenty of positives to report, yet Javid decided instead to say something that's provably and obviously false. Like, the one thing you literally can't say.

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

AZ isn't "experimental" - its based the safety check, it works and its been granted emergency use.  The term "experimental" really doesn't fit.

Fair enough, not sure on the precise term - but yeah I think many Australians would argue they're not in an emergency right now. And as I said, the argument that said we shouldn't use AZ on under 40s in the UK when case prevalence was low applies to every age group in Australia right now.

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Very little real science or real world evidence to back up any of this bollocks you just sprouted but then again people once thought the world was flat as well.  

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-visualization-droplets-covid-19.html

Breath transmits COVID. Breath travels less distance with mask. 

Ergo the distance you can be from someone safely when they are wearing a mask is lower than the distance if they're not wearing a mask (if they're facing you).

Let me know what bit of that doesn't make sense to you and I'll try and help.

[Havors]

12 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Fixed that for you

Captain doom is case blind. 

[MrBarry465]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 

Ive seen study after study

 

I doubt it ....

'Study after study' aka my other mates down the pub spouting the same stuff.

[DeanoL]

11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I don't agree...  We all know a "exit" wave is coming (or has started) and its about minimising that wave.  Its about context.  

I'm just calling a Tory out for saying something stupid - I had thought you were having a laugh and taking the piss a bit with the Sajid Javid hero worship but you're actually proper in to him! Fair play. Although now I'm having to deal the fact that maybe you actually legit fancied Priti Patel as well...

10 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

The bit where I haven't been covering my mouth when I cough since I was two years old FFS

Ive seen study after study promoting this shit.  Comparing someone coughing their lungs up without using their hand to cover their mouth like 99% of adults do.  And then its used as some sort of bullshit proof that we need to wear face nappies. Its barely science.  None of it is peered reviewed.

I think we're probably overdoing the masks, and that was part of my original point: masks without social distancing is pointless. Which does make me question why kids wear them in schools, and does do my head in when people are wearing them in shops or pubs but making no effort to actually keep a safe distance. 

But if you believe both that masks reduce the distance your breath travels, and that COVID can travel on your breath, then they have to have an impact when used with social distancing.

Edited June 29, 2021 by DeanoL

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, guypjfreak said:

Just got call off to see dad is OK.. He was sick last night and but no temp.. Call this morning sounds worse.. Just done flow test we're OK so going to see if we can do the same down there.. Nightmare.. 

Hope things go ok for you and your dad.