When will this shit end?

[Gingerfish79]

9 minutes ago, Havors said:

Have to think they have dealt with it well. Whether that remains true over the next year remains to be seen but i imagine they will do fine. 

They are heading into winter there so who knows what that could mean for infections etc. 

Very true. As time goes on, if they keep numbers very low internally then they will also benefit as the rest of the worlds population gets vaccinated.

It should be also pointed out that our vaccination numbers would be significantly lower if we had kept the number of cases/deaths right down like they have down in Aus and NZ.  I'm sure there will be a clever graph somewhere showing the relationship between hospitalisations/deaths and vaccination rates.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Gingerfish79

[zahidf]

 

 

 

[efcfanwirral]

 

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

 

 

 

Starting to set the scene for the next delay...blame the unvaccinated (or at least make the public blame them) 

[st dan]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

This seems both sensible and fair, doesn’t exclude anybody and is easy for anybody to fit into any one of these criteria. 

[Reckoner]

13 minutes ago, Havors said:

I meant greater sydney sorry not the city.  But yeah they may not get away with it so well this time as its autum/winter... xmas was summer.

Yep all fair. Just making the point that the strategy adopted by Sydney is different to the other snap lockdown states. Much more focus on test, trace and isolate and avoiding locking down. The premier has been the main proponent in trying to change the perception around zero cases but everyone else is still very far behind. 

[sirjonnyp]

14 minutes ago, Havors said:

I see Sydney putting hard borders up between locations and restrictions coming back because there has been 37 "cases". 

If you do this everytime there is such a small amount of cases they are going to be dealing with lockdowns/restrictions until the end of time. 
 

 

12 minutes ago, st dan said:

It’s such a crazy approach. They’ve done exceptionally well in protecting lives and their domestic economy throughout this pandemic (which I guess are the two major factors), but they are a long way behind in terms of the end game. 

 

Yeah damn those antipodeans for sewing a stitch in time to save nine. I'm in Melbourne, where we are just coming out of lockdown four. The most recent lockdown has only been in place for four weeks, I was back in the pub two weeks ago, and no one died. Aside from the Murdoch media, the attitude in Victoria has been largely accepting as we went through a long, hard lockdown last year and don't want to go through that again. 

The problem here has been vaccine procurement. The (national) Government basically gambled on a home-made vaccine and the astrazenica, the former wasn't effective and the latter was limited to the over 50s (now the over 60s) within a few weeks of it becoming available. Despite the state governments making good headway getting out the pfizer vaccine over recent weeks, that teet has now been suckled dry and it's going to be a few months before there is enough pfizer to go around the country and get everyone jabbed. 

As far as I'm aware there isn't an appetite to have ongoing lockdowns as you have stated, but to stamp out any outbreaks until the population is at a level that is vacced up, much like the rest of the world. There will be a difference in perspective though, as Australia and New Zealand aren't coming out of periods of mass death and near permanent lockdowns like the rest of the world. 

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Starting to set the scene for the next delay...blame the unvaccinated (or at least make the public blame them) 

I appreciate things are a bit grim, but some positivity would be a good thing... not everything has to be in the most negative light. 

[fraybentos1]

Think it is worth remembering that it's much better for cases to be increasing with people in their 20s where there is little danger of knock-on effects. 

[TalkShow Bob]

13 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

So if we go with that - neither did the G7...   

But what we do know it did spread so you are on thin ground with your thought process.

How do we know it did? That's what I was saying, I think its correlation not causation. 

[Zacko]

Pinged to self isolate for 6 days this morning. Gutted as I was going to be seeing my grandparents for the first time since 2019 tomorrow and Friday. 

I think it's from watching the football at a pub on Friday - awful timing! 

[steviewevie]

40 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

 

 

They've run out.

[efcfanwirral]

39 minutes ago, st dan said:

This seems both sensible and fair, doesn’t exclude anybody and is easy for anybody to fit into any one of these criteria. 

The fact its there built into the back end does suggest potential usage soon

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, Radiochicken said:

Since March 2020 to today, it’s not even worth a discussion. Of course the Aus/NZ approach has been better.

For the next year, that might not be true anymore. I assume that’s what you meant. 

Exactly. 

1 hour ago, Gingerfish79 said:

Its very difficult and direct comparisons aren't particularly appropriatel due to the vastly different populations and geography. However, its a stark fact that both of those countries have experienced practically zero deaths and returned to normal far quicker and with much less disruption than we have. Short, targeted lockdowns are a very small price to pay.

This is blatantly untrue though. Tell that to the Aussies and New Zealanders that *might* get a special dispensation to return home to visit a dying relative and if they’re very lucky, said relative *might* be able to hang on while they quarantine in a hotel for two weeks. 
 

The OPTIMAL way to manage this pandemic is to pair an early suppression strategy (e.g. NZ/Australia) with a fast vaccine rollout (e.g. UK)

 

As far as I can tell no country has achieved both though. Suppression gets you “pandemic normality” whereas vaccines get you actual normality.

 

In the long term our approach will be rewarded because we’ll get full normality much quicker. 

 

 

59 minutes ago, Gingerfish79 said:

Will it though? 27 deaths were recorded yesterday in the UK. New Zealand had had 26 in total.

I accept I have just made a direct comparison there after previously stating that wasn't clever! But it does indicate the results of the vastly different approaches.

128,000 people have died in the UK from covid. Even if we assume everyone who died had 9 close relatives/friends, that’s still less than 1-in-50 people who have either died or lost a loved one.

 

 

55 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

They've run out.

Wish you'd run out of pointless replies like this which help no one. Cretin.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

Going to miss Fray when all this is over.

[TalkShow Bob]

24 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Common sense dear I say ?

Thousands travel an area from all across the country and then cases spike...

But can I say 100%...  no...  the virus doesn't carry a passport...

And thousands traveled there and didn't cause a spike before, there haven't been similar spikes in other tourist hotspots either (albeit without the G7). 

Having a birthday in a house increases the chance of anyone in that household getting covid by 30% within the fortnight. Your common sense might indicate that the person hitting another rotation of the sun is the cause, but its not.

[kalifire]

Australia's current reaction to cases is best understood in the context of where they are in the vaccination rollout. The Australian government have failed to deliver a coherent roadmap for vaccination rollout, causing confusion and disappointment.

@sirjonnyp summed it up nicely. Essentially we lost our bet with AZ (although government comms about that have been really poor - it's become known colloquially as the 'death jab' for some here), Novavax won't be authorised until much later in the year and we don't have enough Pfizer (we were offered 40m more in July last year and turned it down).

As a result, less than a quarter of the population have received their first jab, and barely over 4% have been fully vaccinated. In Melbourne currently, you can't get a first jab of Pfizer even if you wanted it - they've run out of supply to continue offering new first doses.

This won't continue - we'll receive a huge intake of Pfizer in the second half of this year, and vaccination rollout should ramp up significantly. But my fear is that this mentality of absolute eradication of any cases whatsoever before opening up borders will lengthen the suffering on the economy and the people. As vaccination increases, the impulse to lock down must diminish, and we must accept that Covid will be amongst us for years, and as long as it's manageable, that needs to be OK.

There's a strict cap on the numbers of people who can arrive here, leading to many Australians essentially trapped abroad for months, if not longer. There's an even stricter approach to people leaving - permanent residents and citizens simply aren't allowed without a travel exemption which is very difficult to get, even in extreme cases.

It's a shit show to say the least. The Australian government have said they won't open up borders again until mid-2022, although the fact there's a federal election due early next year may be influencing that decision (opening up the border to Covid would probably cost more votes if lock downs ensued than the narrative of 'keeping Australia safe').

There's also a fair amount of vaccine hesitancy here, perhaps causing a poor turnout to be vaccinated by the over 50's, whether through complacency (day to day life when not locked down is pretty normal) or consumption of misinformation.

Personally, I'm anticipating a second Christmas distanced from my parents, who've both turned 70 since I last saw them. Assuming it'll be Glastonbury 2022 before I see them again, that'll be two and a half years. I'm trying to take it in my stride, but I know for many migrants it's causing a lot of heartache.

 

Edited June 23, 2021 by kalifire

[Nobody Interesting]

35 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Its not legally enforceable from a ping.  

Was you sat outside or inside ? Up to you but I wouldn't be isolating on a maybe if I know I stuck to my bubble and was outside for example.

How am I not surprised to read you will not isolate to try and protect others.

You do realise it is due to selfish people like you that this thing has gone on longer and got to the levels it has.

It is not all about you. Stop being so damn selfish and think of others.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

How am I not surprised to read you will not isolate to try and protect others.

You do realise it is due to selfish people like you that this thing has gone on longer and got to the levels it has.

It is not all about you. Stop being so damn selfish and think of others.

What a fucking weird post.

[steviewevie]

Ivermectin.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57570377

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

How am I not surprised to read you will not isolate to try and protect others.

You do realise it is due to selfish people like you that this thing has gone on longer and got to the levels it has.

It is not all about you. Stop being so damn selfish and think of others.

saying stuff like that just gets you accused of virtue signalling or trolling or being self righteous or some other shite by the c**t clique.

[Ozanne]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

Starting to set the scene for the next delay...blame the unvaccinated (or at least make the public blame them) 

I’m not trying to blame the public but I’ve seen this on Twitter just now and vaccine uptake is slightly lower as you go down the age gap. Hopefully that’s just because it has been available for as long and we encourage people to take it up more  

 

[Nobody Interesting]

13 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Just another one of the "righteous" who get a free pass on being offensive being a c**t 🙂 

Ah bless you - insults are always the last resort of those with a moral vacuum.