When will this shit end?

[Nobody Interesting]

40 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You realise that those two areas are also holiday areas ?  In the faint orange areas are holiday focal points.

Cases where rising before the g7 in those areas - fact 

I don't blame holiday makers but it's what cased it.  It was expected.  You see similar patterns all over the country.

You seem to forget that for three weeks before the summit the areas were full of people from all over preparing for the summit. The 6000 police were there 2 weeks before, the media were all there three weeks before.

It is 100% the G7 summit that caused the spikes.

Tourism in those areas was very low in the 3 weeks before as all rooms were booked for the summit and used by the staff, the media etc

I shall not add the word 'fact' at the end to prove I am right though as that is just daft.

You can down vote me again like you did yesterday too if it makes you feel big and clever - which you certainly are not given you think a face mask is like a nappy.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Nobody Interesting

[fraybentos1]

Defo think a reason for the spikes in cases in Scotland is cause of travel to London, it seems to have spread like wildfire amongst some of the (mainly) unvaccinated 19-30 year old that were down there. Heard of at least a few full groups of 7/8/9 boys that have all got it coming home. So far my group is alright but a few of us vaccinated/ prior infection etc. 

Just shows how quick this thing spreads in the unvaccinated.

[TalkShow Bob]

9 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

We have had India and Kent since the last summer period.  Both changed the game on transmission 

But social interaction - which is where transmission occurs - has not changed. There was zero spike caused by summer tourists and although slightly hyperbolic 0 * 50% increase in transmissibility is still 0.

Edited June 23, 2021 by TalkShow Bob

[efcfanwirral]

33 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Defo think a reason for the spikes in cases in Scotland is cause of travel to London, it seems to have spread like wildfire amongst some of the (mainly) unvaccinated 19-30 year old that were down there. Heard of at least a few full groups of 7/8/9 boys that have all got it coming home. So far my group is alright but a few of us vaccinated/ prior infection etc. 

Just shows how quick this thing spreads in the unvaccinated.

Will be blamed on delta plus and used as a reason to not allow crowds beyond the euros finals and F1 I imagine

Edited June 23, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Havors]

I see Sydney putting hard borders up between locations and restrictions coming back because there has been 37 "cases". 

If you do this everytime there is such a small amount of cases they are going to be dealing with lockdowns/restrictions until the end of time. 
 

[st dan]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

I see Sydney putting hard borders up between locations and restrictions coming back because there has been 37 "cases". 

If you do this everytime there is such a small amount of cases they are going to be dealing with lockdowns/restrictions until the end of time. 
 

It’s such a crazy approach. They’ve done exceptionally well in protecting lives and their domestic economy throughout this pandemic (which I guess are the two major factors), but they are a long way behind in terms of the end game. 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

I see Sydney putting hard borders up between locations and restrictions coming back because there has been 37 "cases". 

If you do this everytime there is such a small amount of cases they are going to be dealing with lockdowns/restrictions until the end of time. 
 

eventually the world will be vaccinated...sometime in the 2030s maybe.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

It’s such a crazy approach. They’ve done exceptionally well in protecting lives and their domestic economy throughout this pandemic (which I guess are the two major factors), but they are a long way behind in terms of the end game. 

Yeah not sure what their vaccination status is.. but they seems like they will be in and out of restrictions forever at the moment. And never allowed to leave the country ever again haha 

[efcfanwirral]

11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

And it highlights the challenges for mass events where people use public transport. 

Until we are comfortable saying we don't care about cases and mean it then we can't unlock further.

And I don't believe that'll be any time soon 😔

[Fuzzy Afro]

Wellington in New Zealand also entering level 2 lockdown (no gatherings over 100, social distancing encouraged and face nappies on public transport) after someone travelled on a flight from Sydney and tested positive.

 

As of yet, no country has successfully managed to pair successful virus suppression policies with a highly successful and rapid vaccination rollout. It’s almost like you need to be pretty hard hit by the virus to get the vaccines rolled out quickly.

 

I’d take our approach over Australia and New Zealand tbh 

[st dan]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’d take our approach over Australia and New Zealand tbh 

Im not sure the families of the 128,000 (and counting) who have died would agree our approach is one that should be followed.
Whilst we’ve been putting the fire out, it hasn’t even really taken light over there. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

Im not sure the families of the 128,000 (and counting) who have died would agree our approach is one that should be followed.
Whilst we’ve been putting the fire out, it hasn’t even really taken light over there. 

The difference is that we are almost done here. In less than a month’s time it’ll be all but over.

 

Australia and New Zealand’s vaccination is so painfully slow and they’ve generated a “cases = bad” attitude so they’ll be in this cycle of on/off snap lockdowns for years to come and international travel could take half a decade to get back to normal.

 

Short term pain for long term gain. 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, st dan said:

Im not sure the families of the 128,000 (and counting) who have died would agree our approach is one that should be followed.
Whilst we’ve been putting the fire out, it hasn’t even really taken light over there. 

And they've kept the domestic economy going. Tourism industry has taken a hit but there are still gigs, festivals, etc. Shops stayed open, bars/pubs/clubs at full capacity. 

Even if it takes them another year to vaccinate everyone, with harsh lockdowns for every small outbreak, the average NZ/AU citizen will have still only spent a fraction of the time under lockdown that we have.

Genuinely can't understand why anyone would take our approach over that!

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, st dan said:

Im not sure the families of the 128,000 (and counting) who have died would agree our approach is one that should be followed.
Whilst we’ve been putting the fire out, it hasn’t even really taken light over there. 

Absolutely no doubt they have dealt with it way better than us in terms of cases and deaths for sure. However, with their vaccine rollouts going as they are and lack of any real prior immunity, at some point they will have a big spike as the virus moves through the rest of the population. It is inevitable.

[Radiochicken]

5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’d take our approach over Australia and New Zealand tbh 

Since March 2020 to today, it’s not even worth a discussion. Of course the Aus/NZ approach has been better.

For the next year, that might not be true anymore. I assume that’s what you meant. 

[Gingerfish79]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Wellington in New Zealand also entering level 2 lockdown (no gatherings over 100, social distancing encouraged and face nappies on public transport) after someone travelled on a flight from Sydney and tested positive.

 

As of yet, no country has successfully managed to pair successful virus suppression policies with a highly successful and rapid vaccination rollout. It’s almost like you need to be pretty hard hit by the virus to get the vaccines rolled out quickly.

 

I’d take our approach over Australia and New Zealand tbh 

Its very difficult and direct comparisons aren't particularly appropriatel due to the vastly different populations and geography. However, its a stark fact that both of those countries have experienced practically zero deaths and returned to normal far quicker and with much less disruption than we have. Short, targeted lockdowns are a very small price to pay.

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The difference is that we are almost done here. In less than a month’s time it’ll be all but over.

 

Australia and New Zealand’s vaccination is so painfully slow and they’ve generated a “cases = bad” attitude so they’ll be in this cycle of on/off snap lockdowns for years to come and international travel could take half a decade to get back to normal.

 

Short term pain for long term gain. 

I mean, all else aside, if you had to do 200 days of lockdown, would you prefer it like we've had, so month at a time over the course of a year, or over five years for just a week or so at a time?

(Not that the average NZ person will ever be in lockdown anywhere near the amount of time we have been)

[Gingerfish79]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The difference is that we are almost done here. In less than a month’s time it’ll be all but over.

 

Will it though? 27 deaths were recorded yesterday in the UK. New Zealand had had 26 in total.

I accept I have just made a direct comparison there after previously stating that wasn't clever! But it does indicate the results of the vastly different approaches.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Gingerfish79

[Havors]

Just now, Gingerfish79 said:

Its very difficult and direct comparisons aren't particularly appropriatel due to the vastly different populations and geography. However, its a stark fact that both of those countries have experienced practically zero deaths and returned to normal far quicker and with much less disruption than we have. Short, targeted lockdowns are a very small price to pay.

Have to think they have dealt with it well. Whether that remains true over the next year remains to be seen but i imagine they will do fine. 

They are heading into winter there so who knows what that could mean for infections etc. 

[TalkShow Bob]

29 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

When you come in close contact with someone then its not a given you will get the virus.  Your chances of getting the covid from the Indian variant was greater than your chances of getting it from Kent which was greater than the Original strains.

Not following your logic at all.

The logic is that tourists/visitors and the settled population don't really come into contact in a way that usually spreads the virus. I.e. tourists and locals broadly aren't spending 15 minutes within a meter of each other. Authough virus transmissibility is increased the opportunities don't often present themselves. So even with the increased spreadability of the new mutations the spikes are unlikely caused by outsiders. The short answer being people don't often catch COVID from strangers.

[Glastoboy]

As someone who actually lives in Falmouth, I will offer my anecdotal opinion.

Cornwall has been very busy since the beginning of May. Us locals recognise the increase in traffic & people down here very easily. Holiday-makers, weekenders and the G7 advance party were here before half term. 

An estimated 450k people descended for half term week - when the Johnson/India/Delta variant was already running amok elsewhere. The following week the G7 started proper. We had 6000 police from all over the country, security teams from the other G6 countries, media crews, protestors & tourists who came specifically for the G7 hoping they might bump into Biden in the local pub.

Both of these things combined contributed to the rise in cases down here and I don't think you can separate them or blame one over the other.

One anomaly down here is Newquay. The source of cases here were mostly centred around the hospitality venues used exclusively by the G7 officials (hangers-on) not the usual tourist hang-outs.

Like last summer, Cornwall businesses have taken matters into their own hands and several venues have returned to outdoor only for the time being. To protect their staff and to try and slow the contagion.

[Reckoner]

16 minutes ago, Havors said:

I see Sydney putting hard borders up between locations and restrictions coming back because there has been 37 "cases". 

If you do this everytime there is such a small amount of cases they are going to be dealing with lockdowns/restrictions until the end of time. 
 

For clarity, It’s not Sydney that are putting the borders up, but the other states restricting entry to people from there. NSW has been generally good about keeping movement open. Sydney have been less prone to snap lockdowns the way through this and are  trying to avoid a one by reintroducing restrictions first to slow spread whereas the other states would have locked down 3 days ago. 
 

Will it work? Maybe. It did at Christmas, but that wasn’t Delta. My guess is their luck has run out in NSW. 
 

The vaccination program has been a debacle (3-4% double jabbed). Went all in on AZ before the clotting issue occurred and now with delayed Pfizer orders not arriving till august. 

[st dan]

Latest vaccination figures from Australia (stats aren’t great to interpret here, doesn’t distinguish between first and second doses etc).  
I think with some strong messaging from the government that if people don’t have the vaccine then lockdowns will continue indefinitely, I think they can push this number up significantly in the coming months. Outbreaks such as this are likely to increase uptake too.  

Edited June 23, 2021 by st dan

[Nobody Interesting]

24 minutes ago, st dan said:

It’s such a crazy approach. They’ve done exceptionally well in protecting lives and their domestic economy throughout this pandemic (which I guess are the two major factors), but they are a long way behind in terms of the end game. 

At least when they get the the end game they will not have the death toll the UK has and  afar better economy.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

For clarity, It’s not Sydney that are putting the borders up, but the other states restricting entry to people from there. NSW has been generally good about keeping movement open. Sydney have been less prone to snap lockdowns the way through this and are  trying to avoid a one by reintroducing restrictions first to slow spread whereas the other states would have locked down 3 days ago. 
 

Will it work? Maybe. It did at Christmas, but that wasn’t Delta. My guess is their luck has run out in NSW. 
 

The vaccination program has been a debacle (3-4% double jabbed). Went all in on AZ before the clotting issue occurred and now with delayed Pfizer orders not arriving till august. 

I meant greater sydney sorry not the city.  But yeah they may not get away with it so well this time as its autum/winter... xmas was summer.