When will this shit end?

[st dan]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Anyone ever considered if we opened up cases may just increase at roughly the same rate anyway? 

We are opened and mixing so much at the moment anyway.

It’s the household mixing that’s largely behind the spread I guess - especially the younger populations who are having parties and drinking in their homes as the pubs are joyless at the moment. And also probably not limiting it to 6 in a lot of cases. 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

If only you gave me so much space hey lol

You wanted social distancing over didn’t you ? 😂

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Anyone ever considered if we opened up cases may just increase at roughly the same rate anyway? 

We are opened and mixing so much at the moment anyway.  And lots aren't following the rules now.  The extra number of cases we fear may not happen compared to the current burn 

Has crossed my mind. Being able to go to the bar yourself or not wearing a mask to go the toilet in the pub... could it cause that much more of an increase?? We are so close to being fully open now i cant see it making that much difference personally. Im sure some wont agree though. 

[MrBarry465]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

Has crossed my mind. Being able to go to the bar yourself or not wearing a mask to go the toilet in the pub... could it cause that much more of an increase?? We are so close to being fully open now i cant see it making that much difference personally. Im sure some wont agree though. 

Cases have been rising with each stage of unlocking.

It's not unreasonable to suggest that throwing away all restrictions will open the flood gates, particularly with this variant.. There's probably a lot of people bending rules now, but the final few restrictions are likely holding things together by duct tape and thread. t's not worth risking it.

Edited June 17, 2021 by MrBarry465

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Havors said:

Has crossed my mind. Being able to go to the bar yourself or not wearing a mask to go the toilet in the pub... could it cause that much more of an increase?? We are so close to being fully open now i cant see it making that much difference personally. Im sure some wont agree though. 

I mean, it's possible....but roadmap is irreversible apparently so if we do step4 and then realise it's fucked, well...then it's fucked because we're not allowed to go backwards.

Edited June 17, 2021 by steviewevie

[stuartbert two hats]

44 minutes ago, mattiosmith said:

FFS, I convinced myself it was going to drop today.

It's not going to drop for a while yet. I wouldn't be surprised if Bolton was the bellwether - it's going to keep rising for a while before it peaks and starts to slowly come down. I don't expect Manchester"s numbers to drop for another week.

I'm guessing, of course.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Cases have been rising with each stage of unlocking.

It's not unreasonable to suggest that throwing away all restrictions will open the flood gates, particularly with this variant.. There's probably a lot of people bending rules now, but the final few restrictions are likely holding things together by duct tape and thread. t's not worth risking it.

They havent. They have only been rising since the Delta variant which coincided with the 17th May reopening. 

Its not unreasonable. It is also not unreasonable to think it would not open the flood gates. 🙂 

 

[st dan]

The justification for allowing 19th July but not 21st June is going to be an interesting one, especially as the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths are going to be much higher then than were on Monday when this was announced (probably at least double). 
I know the reason is additional jabs, but you’re relying a lot on judgement and modelling rather than real life figures. 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I mean, it's possible....but roadmap is irreversible apparently so if we do step4 and then realise it's fucked, well...then it's fucked because we're not allowed to go backwards.

We have to do it at some point though... just under 5 weeks from now on the 19th July we should have millions more vaccinated. If it goes tits up then the vaccines have not worked. I find that hard to believe. 😄 

[Chapple12345]

 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You know you don't have to reply to every post on a subject matter repeating the same view point.

😄 😄 😄 

 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

We have to do it at some point though... just under 5 weeks from now on the 19th July we should have millions more vaccinated. If it goes tits up then the vaccines have not worked. I find that hard to believe. 😄 

yeah, agreed. Fingers crossed. Believe it or not I really want this shit to end.

[Havors]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yeah, agreed. Fingers crossed. Believe it or not I really want this shit to end.

Where are you going to post when this shit does end? 😄 

Start a "welll that shit did end" thread? haha

[balthazarstarbuck]

7 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Cases have been rising with each stage of unlocking.

Cases continued to decline at stages 1a, 1b and 2 (despite a little slowing of decrease at 1a).

3’s been the only issue- either due to delta becoming prevalent and indoor household mixing (or both).

Against “letting it rip” though- not least because jabbing people is far quicker and safer at giving immunity.

 

[Chapple12345]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Awesome   if you had told me that in December I would of laughed you out of the room 

I'll be interested to see how much it'll be once everyone's received their first dose, I won't be surprised if its in the 90% range 

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

We have to do it at some point though... just under 5 weeks from now on the 19th July we should have millions more vaccinated. If it goes tits up then the vaccines have not worked. I find that hard to believe. 😄 

Both our main vaccines are over 90% effective against the delta variant, if things go tits up from that data we may as well have not started the rollout 

[DeanoL]

19 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

If we're really that concerned what are the chances of them overturning the previous decision and allowing under 40s to have Astrazenica? It would allow us to jab far more people and hopefully outpace the virus 

Part of the issue with that is that AZ is less effective as a single dose against Delta, and requires a minimum 8-week gap between doses. Pfizer is more effective that a single dose and has only a minimum 4-week gap between doses.

So unless using the AZ stockpiles can put us more than a month ahead of where we be using Pfizer, it may not actually help overall. If we end up in a position with all adults single jabbed but waiting for the 8-week period to run down on second jabs, while having excess Pfizer sitting there, we end up behind where we would otherwise be.

13 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Anyone ever considered if we opened up cases may just increase at roughly the same rate anyway? 

We are opened and mixing so much at the moment anyway.  And lots aren't following the rules now.  The extra number of cases we fear may not happen compared to the current burn 

Depends how it's done I think. If Johnson goes all out "it's Freedom Day, restrictions are all over, it's safe everyone" then I think we'd get a huge increase.

But as people have said, with the cases still going up significantly (seemingly) that's going to be hard to pull off. It feels like the best case is "all legal restrictions are over but we urge caution as we don't want to end up back in lockdown" in which case I don't think cases will go up much, but nor will footfall at the businesses that are running at limited capacity at the moment.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Havors said:

Where are you going to post when this shit does end? 😄 

Start a "welll that shit did end" thread? haha

I'll still be here, on my own, or maybe with Baz and Baz.

[TalkShow Bob]

14 minutes ago, Havors said:

Has crossed my mind. Being able to go to the bar yourself or not wearing a mask to go the toilet in the pub... could it cause that much more of an increase?? We are so close to being fully open now i cant see it making that much difference personally. Im sure some wont agree though. 

Masks when not seated and not going to the bar maybe the most visible restrictions in pubs at the moment but they're two quite small ones really. Most bars have half the seats gone and many fewer seats round table than they did. When they increase back to full capacity and let you sit at tables with more than 6 I think you might notice something.

This is my issue with pubs etc being closed as part of the half lockdown we had here in Wales for a while. At the moment it's a very controlled and safe environment. 

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, Havors said:

Where are you going to post when this shit does end? 😄 

Start a "welll that shit did end" thread? haha

and actually I really need to start doing some work and maybe talk to the family a bit.

Edited June 17, 2021 by steviewevie

[stuartbert two hats]

37 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Vaccination update:

Dismal innit? What's going on?

 

[dingbat2]

[Havors]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Dismal innit? What's going on?

 

I think a lot of people have their 2nd jab booked for 12 weeks after first and are not even contemplating trying to move it forward. Through not realising they can or just not being bothered with any hassle. 

They need to advertise that people can bring their 2nd dose forward and encourage them to do it. I think otherwise will just see this 200-300k mark day after day

[jannybruck]

6 minutes ago, TalkShow Bob said:

Masks when not seated and not going to the bar maybe the most visible restrictions in pubs at the moment but they're two quite small ones really. Most bars have half the seats gone and many fewer seats round table than they did. When they increase back to full capacity and let you sit at tables with more than 6 I think you might notice something.

I hate wearing face coverings on and off in the pub/cafe/restaurant but - without exception - the ones I've been to have staff of an age where they're probably not vaccinated yet (and possibly feeling a bit anxious about it all), so even if it's a semi-pointless bit of theatre at this point, at least I feel like I'm showing them a bit of respect when I'm passing them to go for a piss or walking around them. It's irritating but I can put up with it for a bit longer.

[Ed90]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

I think a lot of people have their 2nd jab booked for 12 weeks after first and are not even contemplating trying to move it forward. Through not realising they can or just not being bothered with any hassle. 

They need to advertise that people can bring their 2nd dose forward and encourage them to do it. I think otherwise will just see this 200-300k mark day after day

Yup, I posted the new info (about the cancel-then-rebook system being improved) on Instagram today, and have had 5 friends (who I thought were fairly up to date with the news and tech-savvy) amazed that you could do this and/or having to be talking through the process and reassured.

In other words, tell everyone you know

Edited June 17, 2021 by Ed90
extra info

[Havors]

Just now, Ed90 said:

Yup, I posted the new info (about the cancel-then-rebook system being improved) on Instagram today, and have had 5 friends (who I thought were fairly up to date with the news and tech-savvy) amazed that you could do this and/or having to be talking through the process and reassured

I only noticed they had improved the process because you posted.

If we have to rely on random forum posts for the info we arent going to be increasing the 2nd doses any time soon.