When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-death-predictions-downgraded-kbkwkmvjz

 

 

putting the vaccine effacacy information from Monday into the models now reduces the summer wave masively

BIG mistake delaying next week

Just for balance, these models don’t include the fact that the hospitalisation risk of Delta is twice as high as that of Alpha 

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-death-predictions-downgraded-kbkwkmvjz

 

 

putting the vaccine effacacy information from Monday into the models now reduces the summer wave masively

BIG mistake delaying next week

Harping back to that analogy from a few dozen pages back...

If you take your foot off the gas to go around a blind bend in the road, find there's nothing blocking your way after all, and carry happily on - do you call it a mistake not to accelerate into the turn? Or do you accept you made a prudent choice to avoid risk?

Nobody as far as I know on this thread has ever claimed that a big rise in hospitalisations is inevitable. But the negative consequences if it had come to pass are severe enough - both for individuals and for businesses! - that caution is sensible.

When managing risks it's almost impossible to make decisions that look "just right" - decisions that successfully avoid risk will nearly always look overly cautious. Damned if you do and damned if you don't...

[philipsteak]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Big no to any form of Bus in the states 🙂 

As you say the Amtrax seats are great - they are seats are really big.  The american railroad is almost a forgotten form of transport in the states with flying so cheap - but its a false economy on time and cost when you factor it all in - I prefer trains.

The buses are actually fine.  You certainly meet some interesting people on the them! The bus stations can be terrifying. some were like being in an 80s film about street gangs. I've used the Chinatown buses that connect the east cost cities too. They really are an experience. Dirt cheap. For a reason.

The only issue with Amtrak is the potential delays. I remember chatting with someone who missed a wedding because her train was something like a day and a half late.

[Fuzzy Afro]

46 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Isn't the reason for this because presumably we wouldn't give a first dose without the second one existing and being in the country? Because otherwise wouldn't we have the issue of if supply just stopped for whatever reason we wouldn't have any second doses? 

I just always assumed that's that's we were doing, and that this was sensible 

If true, this would absolutely NOT be sensible.

 

What they’re basically doing if this is the cases is saying that no protection at all is better than one dose without the second. That’s blatantly not true. 

[Matt42]

All adults over 18 being allowed to book their jabs tomorrow (per the telegraph) is fab news. Let’s try and catch up / overtake the US!

[BobWillis2]

11 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Just for balance, these models don’t include the fact that the hospitalisation risk of Delta is twice as high as that of Alpha 

Probably because it’s bullshit 

[BobWillis2]

10 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Harping back to that analogy from a few dozen pages back...

If you take your foot off the gas to go around a blind bend in the road, find there's nothing blocking your way after all, and carry happily on - do you call it a mistake not to accelerate into the turn? Or do you accept you made a prudent choice to avoid risk?

Nobody as far as I know on this thread has ever claimed that a big rise in hospitalisations is inevitable. But the negative consequences if it had come to pass are severe enough - both for individuals and for businesses! - that caution is sensible.

When managing risks it's almost impossible to make decisions that look "just right" - decisions that successfully avoid risk will nearly always look overly cautious. Damned if you do and damned if you don't...

Tough shit if you own a business that’s holding on by the fingernails waiting for  restrictions to end, we just had to make sure it was safe round that bend just in case…..oh shit here’s another bend hold on! 

[Ozanne]

 

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Harping back to that analogy from a few dozen pages back...

If you take your foot off the gas to go around a blind bend in the road, find there's nothing blocking your way after all, and carry happily on - do you call it a mistake not to accelerate into the turn? Or do you accept you made a prudent choice to avoid risk?

Nobody as far as I know on this thread has ever claimed that a big rise in hospitalisations is inevitable. But the negative consequences if it had come to pass are severe enough - both for individuals and for businesses! - that caution is sensible.

When managing risks it's almost impossible to make decisions that look "just right" - decisions that successfully avoid risk will nearly always look overly cautious. Damned if you do and damned if you don't...

Quite. It's a bit like saying "those backups we took of the servers were a BIG mistake" because there was never a need to restore from a backup.

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

All adults over 18 being allowed to book their jabs tomorrow (per the telegraph) is fab news. Let’s try and catch up / overtake the US!

When will all of these bookings translate to actual jabs in arms though?

We're going at a snails pace and it sucks ass.

[Toilet Duck]

15 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

I've done an over nighter on Amtrak (Chicago to Montana, then same train a few days later on to Seattle) but couldn't afford a sleeper at the time. But even in a seat was ok. The seats are so big and folded almost flat. Better than trying to do it on a Greyhound bus. That one I don't recommend 

Went from San Diego to Vegas by Greyhound once…my wife thought it would be “romantic” 😂…her only prior experience of anything like that distance on a bus was backpacking in Oz (or intercity bus trips here in Ireland), both of which are just fine…The bus had a stop in LA on the way and I tried to explain to her that (apart from being uncomfortable) LA to Vegas by bus would be a freak show. Eventually pulled into Vegas about 1am, the guy behind us had his smelly bare feet either side of my wife’s head for the previous hour or so and at about 10 minute intervals, somebody would randomly stand up, start screaming nonsense for a minute (praise Jesus, we’re all gonna die, the government are trying to control our minds type stuff) and then sit back down again…she’s never suggested we take a bus again! 😁 (Amtrak on the other hand is marvellous!)…

[Ozanne]

Wales continue to do amazingly well.

 

[theesundayroast]

11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Book in July for jabs in August was said the other day...  So that would suggest a 4 week window ?  Maybe some young ones can tell us hows it been going ?

Of course this is completely anecdotal but a friend of mine (21 years old) booked his yesterday and was offered next Friday. 78% have been jabbed at least once in our postcode so I can only assume that's so early as we're through a fair amount already?

[zahidf]

 

[zahidf]

22 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Quite. It's a bit like saying "those backups we took of the servers were a BIG mistake" because there was never a need to restore from a backup.

That only works if doing the backups are consequences free. A 4 week delay isn't consequence free

[zero000]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Wales continue to do amazingly well.

 

Yet we still can’t meet 6 people inside and it doesn’t look like that is going to change tomorrow either.  I hope we get to a point where we drop all restrictions the same time as England but I can’t that happening. 

[philipsteak]

3 minutes ago, theesundayroast said:

Of course this is completely anecdotal but a friend of mine (21 years old) booked his yesterday and was offered next Friday. 78% have been jabbed at least once in our postcode so I can only assume that's so early as we're through a fair amount already?

Couple of colleagues in their early twenties booked on Tuesday and got tomorrow

[gooner1990]

1 hour ago, Dog Burger said:

Same for us - we had to cancel a two-week trip on Amtrak taking in Seattle, Portland and Vancouver in May 2020. At the time, we thought maybe it would be fine by autumn 2020, then May 2021… We finally rebooked with our BA vouchers a couple of weeks ago for May 2022. Hopefully, surely, it'll be OK by then. 

Have been to NY, Phoenix and San Francisco previously but never been to any American sport, the dates have never worked out. Would love to fit one in this time if possible.

I'm aiming for August 2022 now, like you say surely it has to be back to some sort of normality by then!

[broken monkey]

In Kent, a 24yr old friend yesterday booked her first jab for tonight, and has her 2nd in 8 weeks time.

[zahidf]

16 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Yet we still can’t meet 6 people inside and it doesn’t look like that is going to change tomorrow either.  I hope we get to a point where we drop all restrictions the same time as England but I can’t that happening. 

Nah Drakeford seems to be super into keeping you guys locked up

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/summer-covid-death-predictions-downgraded-kbkwkmvjz

 

 

putting the vaccine effacacy information from Monday into the models now reduces the summer wave masively

BIG mistake delaying next week

you never know...they may change plans at 2 weeks instead of 4 (doubt it though).

[zahidf]

Just now, steviewevie said:

you never know...they may change plans at 2 weeks instead of 4 (doubt it though).

Yup. Data not dates only goes one way...

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Yup. Data not dates only goes one way...

You're not allowed to say that, you'll offend someone.

[jimmillen]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

That only works if doing the backups are consequences free. A 4 week delay isn't consequence free

That's just not accurate. Managing backups brings a number of negative consequences - cost, complexity, support, regular testing requirements... All sorts of things. Backups are a pain in the arse.

Businesses do them anyway because the potential consequences of data loss are so severe.

I totally agree that the 4-week delay to reopening does have negative consequences, unfortunately.

The potential negative consequences of a hospitalisation wave are much worse. That's why the government made the decision they did.

I know we all bring our own preconceptions to this and for sure we're not all going to agree, but please let's not pretend this was in any way a simple decision. Any choice by the government has negative consequences that need to be balanced against the benefits and risks avoided. 

[zahidf]

From the Times article. Why on earth aren't the modellers who are apparently on charge now not using the up to date Figures? It's ridiculous

 

For Warwick University's models, that would mean their death estimates could fall from 72,400 to 17,100. While the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said there could be 33,200 deaths in an optimistic scenario.

On Wednesday, MPs on the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee grilled Dr Susan Hopkins about using out of date data in their modelling.

Committee chair Greg Clark, a former Tory science minister, said: 'Wouldn't it have been possible given the relatively new real world data, to say actually, in the light of this data, we need a few more days to assess it, before we decide what is going to be the right implications of public policy?'

He added that the UK's Covid crisis had been 'beset by uncertainties and difficulties with modelling evidence informing government policy decisions'.

Mr Clark called for the models to be redone as soon as possible 'so that, as the Prime Minister promised, a reappraisal can be made and a change made if it's justified'.

Dr Hopkins said she was in 'no doubt' that SAGE would plug the new figures into heir models.

But Tory MP Aaron Bell suggested it was too late and that the new data may have altered 'the case for the continuation of restrictions'.

He added: 'The models that we seem to be relying on to justify the extension of restrictions don't appear to be using [the PHE] numbers.

'This is really important because the number of deaths that those numbers ultimately forecast, are for people who have had both doses, so if they have been using numbers that are now superseded, doesn't that alter the case for the continuation of restrictions?'

'We are voting in the House of Commons on the basis of those models. And it's obviously very good news. These numbers are coming out so far ahead of even the optimistic scenarios that have been modelled.'