When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You confirmed what I said.  I never said we didn't test flu.  Testing for flu is hardly a routine event on arrival in a&e.  1 million tests in the US isn't a big number at all.

Surprised you have taken exception to my comments when you seem to have reaffirmed my comments.

I asked my staff nurse mother in law how often do you test for flu and she said almost never and its usually picked up when doing a range of other tests when trying to work out what's going on with someone.  Hey but what does she know.

...we don't specifically test everyone in the community at the rate we are doing for Covid (of course not),  but we don't "almost never" test for flu (most are done at point of care, not in A&E). Granted, the % of "influenza-like" symptoms that are molecularly tested for flu is not huge, but it's not almost never (and it's mostly not in hospital). I think our concept of how much testing is "normal" has been skewed completely by the vast amount of molecular surveillance that we are doing in our current situation (which is anything but normal!). All notifiable diseases are tested for, but at a rate that confirms other observations made using symptom trackers, internet searches etc. But your Q to CF was "did you think we tested for flu?", and I answered that by saying, yes, we do!

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Okay let's put it another way.

The reported 10,000 flu deaths a year are not from confirmed tests but largely from doctors assessing symptoms.  Would you agree ?

Yep! 

However, we do test for it, and it would be incorrect to suggest we don't or "almost never" do. Again, what we are doing now is nowhere near normal levels of surveillance. 

[Crazyfool01]

Maybe I’ve lost the plot here … but a flu case diagnosed by a dr … is fairly likely to be a flu case anyway ? Covid is being tested for so that rules that out …. So the numbers we get are a decent picture of the reality in hospital settings at least …. Anyway back to original point that we had a drop in flu numbers over the winter and we will see this winter how much of a difference masks and social distancing have made to that if they are both removed …. If just one goes we will see how much that one thing helps on it’s own 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

Maybe I’ve lost the plot here … but a flu case diagnosed by a dr … is fairly likely to be a flu case anyway ? Covid is being tested for so that rules that out …. So the numbers we get are a decent picture of the reality in hospital settings at least …. Anyway back to original point that we had a drop in flu numbers over the winter and we will see this winter how much of a difference masks and social distancing have made to that if they are both removed …. If just one goes we will see how much that one thing helps on it’s own 

I guess there may still be low flu numbers this winter due to restrictions globally?

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess there may still be low flu numbers this winter due to restrictions globally?

Fair point … I wonder if we get a bounce back though due to our immune systems being a bit more susceptible after social distancing ends 

[SheffJeff]

I did read the other day (may have been on here actually) that due to the pandemic and lockdown 2 strains of flu no longer exist which should in theory reduce flu numbers. No idea how many strains of flu are our there though... if its infinite then this will make bugger all difference.

[JoeyT]

2 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

I still only have the option to cancel and rebook 

Apparently when you click 'Cancel and Rebook' it shows you availability, so you can see what is on offer before you confirm cancellation.

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Fauci in the USA suggesting Uk / US travel corridor towards end of the summer when everyone is doubled jabbed.

"Everyone" is a very loaded term. It'll be interesting what their threshold for us is

[gooner1990]

23 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Fauci in the USA suggesting Uk / US travel corridor towards end of the summer when everyone is doubled jabbed.

I had a trip booked to NYC for Aug 9th-14th for my 40th birthday that I just cancelled/got a voucher this morning with BA. 

Absolutely gutted, but girlfriend doesn't really want to travel and neither of us are double jabbed anyway (and won't be until late August)

 

On the flip side we are going to rebook for the same dates next year and Rage Against the Machine are playing Madison Square Garden the same week so will get to see them. 🙂 

[jparx]

19 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

I had a trip booked to NYC for Aug 9th-14th for my 40th birthday that I just cancelled/got a voucher this morning with BA. 

Absolutely gutted, but girlfriend doesn't really want to travel and neither of us are double jabbed anyway (and won't be until late August)

 

On the flip side we are going to rebook for the same dates next year and Rage Against the Machine are playing Madison Square Garden the same week so will get to see them. 🙂 

I just did the BA voucher thing as well. Incredibly impressed with how quick and easy that was. The voucher email came through less than an hour after submitting the form! 

RATM at MSG will be amazing. I was so desperate to see a gig at MSG when i last went to NY bit the only show was Andrea Bocelli (amazing) and tickets were £300 (less amazing) 😂 Did the tour though - incredible venue.

[zahidf]

ONS survey shows only 0.5% of people getting infected after first dose of vaccine

The Office for National Statistics has published a report this morning on the prospects of testing positive for coronavirus after having a vaccine, and mostly the findings are very encouraging. It says:

• Only 0.5% of those sampled who had had a first dose of vaccine later tested positive for coronavirus, the report says. The figures were 0.8% for those having the Pfizer vaccine and 0.3% for the AstraZeneca vaccine. After having had a second dose of vaccine, only 0.1% tested positive (with Pfizer and AstraZeneca both on 0.1%).

• The risk of a new infection after vaccination was “highest during the first 21 days after the first vaccination”, the report says. After that the risk “strongly decreased”.

• People who did get infected after a vaccination were “less likely to have symptoms and less likely to have a high viral load” than other infected people, the report says.

• The risk of testing positive after a vaccination was higher for people under 40, for people working in patient-facing healthcare roles and in care homes, for people in larger households and for people in poorer areas.

• The raw figures show the risk of infection actually going up after the first vaccination, “peaking at around 16 days, followed by a strong decrease to around one month”. But this might be the result of people being infected before having their first vaccination but not realising it, the ONS says. It says other possible explanations for this could be “exposure to Covid-19 at vaccination centres, change in behaviour following vaccination, or prompts to get vaccinated because of knowledge of individuals around them testing positive.” Here is the chart that illustrates this.

 

 

[Havors]

It may have already been discussed but what are peoples thoughts on the "leaked" stuff about masks, restrictions and other stuff being with us after 19th July? I need to re-read it but it sounds like it will be guidance and not law? So people will just bin it off if they want? 

[MrBarry465]

5 minutes ago, Havors said:

It may have already been discussed but what are peoples thoughts on the "leaked" stuff about masks, restrictions and other stuff being with us after 19th July? I need to re-read it but it sounds like it will be guidance and not law? So people will just bin it off if they want? 

I'll continue to wear masks in shops, I quite enjoy it - particularly if I'm hungover and or spangled from night before.

Not clear on what other restrictions there will be, But I really doubt theres going to be many. 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Havors said:

It may have already been discussed but what are peoples thoughts on the "leaked" stuff about masks, restrictions and other stuff being with us after 19th July? I need to re-read it but it sounds like it will be guidance and not law? So people will just bin it off if they want? 

yes, I'm sure it will just be guidance for the masks. I'll probably wear one if everyone else is wearing one!

[steviewevie]

More on that Fauci US travel thing...

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-16/reasonable-chance-travel-between-uk-and-us-could-resume-by-september-us-covid-expert-dr-anthony-fauci-tells-itv-news

[Havors]

8 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I'll continue to wear masks in shops, I quite enjoy it - particularly if I'm hungover and or spangled from night before.

Not clear on what other restrictions there will be, But I really doubt theres going to be many. 

Haha wow if i was hungover the last thing i need is a mask! Or is it to catch the throw up? ha

If I had to get the tube I would say thats a good time to wear one. But ill be glad to not have to wear one in any other situation

[steviewevie]

 

[andyrhodes24]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

It's a close call between a soused herring at the free Charlton tickets they're offering at the weekend

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, andyrhodes24 said:

It's a close call between a soused herring at the free Charlton tickets they're offering at the weekend

I'd take the herring.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, andyrhodes24 said:

It's a close call between a soused herring at the free Charlton tickets they're offering at the weekend

I’d take the tickets …otherwise there might be accusations of something fishy going on … 😀

[DeanoL]

 

12 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

Was that a  fake sage warning ?

No, the "women of child-bearing age shouldn't drink" nonsense is from some other quack scientists organisation. The "WHO" apparently. Nerds. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/who-slammed-saying-women-childbearing-24335716

11 hours ago, zahidf said:

That's why enough is enough. Let's have a mass demonstration on July 4th and tell the nerds and Tories we won't put up with their bullshit rules 

Okay - where and when are you running this?

[topmarksbri]

1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

right now they are having some serious issues with crime out there

Are they? Haven't seen anything about that

[balthazarstarbuck]

18 minutes ago, andyrhodes24 said:

It's a close call between a soused herring at the free Charlton tickets they're offering at the weekend

Just giving ammo to the anti-vaxxers stuff like this. The Illuminati are known to use pickled fish and league one football tickets as currency when not running the world.

[DeanoL]

12 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

An exit wave is an inevitability. The vaccines aren’t 100% effective and there is a percentage, albeit small, of the population who refused the vaccine. The virus won’t stop until it’s burned through at least some of these people. The issue with the 21st June unlocking is there’s still (just about) enough people susceptible that the NHS could get into trouble if we throw caution to the wind. Pushing it back a month gets you into the sweep spot where the exit wave can be safely mitigated.

I find this whole conversation a bit weird.

Cases are going up. Hospitalisations are going up. Deaths are going up. There's no plan to roll back any restrictions, and while a growing vaccinated population will mitigate the rate of growth, no-one is truly suggesting that they think those cases, hospitalisations and deaths will start coming back down again any time soon. They'll continue to creep up. But as long as it's slow enough that's fine.

Ergo: we're in the third wave right now. We're right at the start of it. And we're a long way off winter. Obviously I've not done the modelling, but I'd think even if we kept current restrictions, over the next four months that wave will play out anyway. The current restrictions aren't delaying the wave, just slowing it (flattening the curve as we used to say).

The question is if that's even necessary, and if we can actually get the economy going again and deal with a bit of a higher peak, which we probably can.

But this isn't like Stage 2 restrictions where numbers were coming down. If we were still under those restrictions the fear of pushing the wave into winter would be completely correct.

[Fuzzy Afro]

21 minutes ago, andyrhodes24 said:

It's a close call between a soused herring at the free Charlton tickets they're offering at the weekend

Did you hear about the raffle at the Charlton game?

 

First prize was a free ticket.

 

The booby prize was two free tickets.