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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

No need for demeaning tones thanks for that … so when we get the flu numbers from a year … it’s not tested then ? They just make it up ? 

It's probably masks and social distancing that kept flu numbers down, right? That's obvious isn't it? And I guess without masks and social distancing in the winter then we would be having to deal with covid+flu which might stretch hospitals too far...so in bad winters we'll need to have restrictions, or we need bigger hospitals and more facilities and staff.

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

It's probably masks and social distancing that kept flu numbers down, right? That's obvious isn't it? And I guess without masks and social distancing in the winter then we would be having to deal with covid+flu which might stretch hospitals too far...so in bad winters we'll need to have restrictions, or we need bigger hospitals and more facilities and staff.

Yep I didn’t mention social distancing which I absolutely agree plays a decent part in that … people in Asian countries I presume wear them for a reason to … some because of pollution levels but we also seem to be getting some issues with that here now … I hope Boris gets a move on with these 40 new hospitals he promised 😀

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The winter pressures on the NHS aren't just caused by the flu. Trips and falls bed closures due to norovirus etc...

Granted flu and flu like symptoms are a massive part of that and 2018 was a really bad year but there is a plethora of information here https://nhsproviders.org/topics/delivery-and-performance/winter-pressures

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6 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

The winter pressures on the NHS aren't just caused by the flu. Trips and falls bed closures due to norovirus etc...

Granted flu and flu like symptoms are a massive part of that and 2018 was a really bad year but there is a plethora of information here https://nhsproviders.org/topics/delivery-and-performance/winter-pressures

ok...and add covid to that and we have overstretched hospitals.

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8 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Not everyone is comfortable and relax in them.  They cause me anxiety.  I can do 10 to 20 mins but after I need to get them off.  I am probably border line to claim an exemption to be frank but I recognise its the law, they might make a very small difference and I am just choosing to avoid doing things that involve them as much as possible.  So I haven't been to the cinema since March 2020 😞 

Just have a,drink and a bag of popcorn next to you. Seems to be the remit in every cinema here. And eat it very slowly. There's distancing anyway so no bugger is going to care what you're up to. 

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Just now, steviewevie said:

ok...and add covid to that and we have overstretched hospitals.

Not necessarily. Depends on the scale of Covid admissions and the other 'usual' admissions. It's not like all the flu admissions happen at the same time either, same with Covid there will be pressure points this winter like every other winter.

Elements of the NHS e.g. individual hospitals or trusts can be over stretched any winter or any day of the year. Plus the flu jab has been ramped up which should hopefully reduce the flu based pressures.

At the moment there is little suggestion that the NHS is going to be overwhelmed (different to overstretched), there is little evidence than the case to hospitalisation conversion rate is as high as it was (due to the vaccines protecting those most likely to end up in hospital). 

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42 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

How did the winter flu go last winter ? Did face coverings help keep cases down ? I know it’s not covid but still impacts on the nhs …. I hate them tbh but if it’s what I have to do going forward then I’ll accept it and not make it some kind of major issue … because hopefully it might be something that helps us get things back more to how they were b4 

We had virtually no flu season at all last winter.

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/clinical-areas/immunology-and-vaccines/no-flu-cases-detected-in-england-this-year-to-date/

 

 

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1 minute ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Not necessarily. Depends on the scale of Covid admissions and the other 'usual' admissions. It's not like all the flu admissions happen at the same time either, same with Covid there will be pressure points this winter like every other winter.

Elements of the NHS e.g. individual hospitals or trusts can be over stretched any winter or any day of the year. Plus the flu jab has been ramped up which should hopefully reduce the flu based pressures.

At the moment there is little suggestion that the NHS is going to be overwhelmed (different to overstretched), there is little evidence than the case to hospitalisation conversion rate is as high as it was (due to the vaccines protecting those most likely to end up in hospital). 

yes, sure.....but there is the chance that in some winters we get bad flu and bad covid....hospitals can just about cope with a bad flu outbreak, can they cope with both? When you say there is no evidence...well that's because we've never gone through it yet. Last year flu numbers were low, and we had lockdowns to stop covid getting too high. Going forward we have vaccines, which may be enough, or may not.

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3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yes, sure.....but there is the chance that in some winters we get bad flu and bad covid....hospitals can just about cope with a bad flu outbreak, can they cope with both? When you say there is no evidence...well that's because we've never gone through it yet. Last year flu numbers were low, and we had lockdowns to stop covid getting too high. Going forward we have vaccines, which may be enough, or may not.

There's going to be an overlap of the two though. Obviously no one knows how big an overlap but it wont be an either/or. Unfortunately some people will succome to covid who would have succomed to flu.

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1 minute ago, danmarks said:

There's going to be an overlap of the two though. Obviously no one knows how big an overlap but it wont be an either/or. Unfortunately some people will succome to covid who would have succomed to flu.

yes, there will be an overlap...still will be an increase in numbers if get bad outbreak with both flu and covid. I guess they will work to evaluate how bad it could be earlier in the winter and then react in whatever way they can.

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8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Sorry, I still don't get it. I know it's not your quote, but do you believe "Leave it much later and you pretty much will need to lockdown until March 2022 " If so, why?

LSHTM Interim Roadmap Assessment comments, “even the 2 or 5 week delay to Step 4 can result in modest increases in morbidity and mortality when measured until the end of the year as more cases are pushed back into the autumn”.

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yes, there will be an overlap...still will be an increase in numbers if get bad outbreak with both flu and covid. I guess they will work to evaluate how bad it could be earlier in the winter and then react in whatever way they can.

yep this winter is going to be a test event for the nhs ? 

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49 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 Did you think we test for flu?  It's rare.

Course we test for flu! Compared to Covid testing, every diagnostic test is "rare", but there's about 1m+ flu tests done in the US every year, about 80% as outpatients and the rest in other settings. Now, they'd do that in a day for Covid, but we aren't in a flu pandemic most of the time, so aren't undertaking the expansive molecular surveillance we are now (but testing identifies which strains are the cause of the observed infections). There are a range of surveillance systems used in the UK (even down to keeping an eye on how frequently people search for flu on google!), but we do test for it as well (both point of care testing and PCR-based testing...indeed, some are even sequenced, though again, nowhere near the level we are currently doing for SARS-CoV-2). Eventually, Covid will join the ranks of the myriad notifiable diseases we keep an eye on in the background. 

Edited by Toilet Duck
typo!
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1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Yup. What's caution and what's fear?

 

yeah, risk. It's like this with loads of stuff...risk of various catastrophic events and how much  to spend on planning and preparing for them...whether it's a pandemic, a terrorist strike, a nuclear attack, or a solar flare wiping out the electricity supply. With current situation, I think we're in early days of coming out of this and there are nerves as have been burnt before with this virus, and they don't want to reverse the roadmap at all.....but as more and more get vaccinated the risk decreases and eventually we have to go for it and bin the social distancing thing.

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4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

LSHTM Interim Roadmap Assessment comments, “even the 2 or 5 week delay to Step 4 can result in modest increases in morbidity and mortality when measured until the end of the year as more cases are pushed back into the autumn”.

Thanks, this is what I was looking for. I'll give the PDF a read. Presumably it's the one that can be downloaded from here?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/lshtm-interim-roadmap-assessment-prior-to-step-4-9-june-2021

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1 hour ago, MrBarry465 said:

I've no issues with people's right to protest this final extension, it just seems incredibly dumb at this juncture - almost pointless.

Plenty of valid reasons for people to protest. 

People that feel we're still living under restrictions for at least another 4 weeks despite meeting the criteria originally set out by the government for lifting all restrictions. 

People that feel the response to this is out of proportion with the consequences and don't like themselves and future generations having to accept a lower quality of life to pay for it. 

People that don't believe the government will actually lift all restrictions in july. 

Just because these protests attract complete lunatics doesn't mean there aren't valid concerns. 

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There are two types of anti lockdown protestor.

 

Some of them are fringe lunatics. Anti-vaxxers, QAnon, 5G type nutters. These types don’t deserve any air time.

 

Then there’s your normal anti-lockdown protestor who just thinks that the curbs on personal freedom have gone way too far for a virus that the vast majority of people survive without hospital treatment. That’s a much more worthwhile conversation. 

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26 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

And from the Southern Hemisphere perspective.

Flu almost ‘nowhere to be seen’ in Australia post-COVID (smh.com.au)

Differing circumstances and all that, but it will be interesting to see what effect the last half year plus of restrictions has for the UK.

The flip side is that there is some concern out there that because they don't know what strains  are prevalent in the opposing hemisphere, they are worried the next vaccines will miss the mark. 

 

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