When will this shit end?

[BobWillis2]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

The first wave saw 25,000 excess deaths in private homes and another 25,000 excess deaths in care homes. "Wouldn't have been admitted to hospital in the first wave" should not be something that's aspirational

Excess deaths does not mean they were all deaths from covid. Suicides, lack of routine care, loneliness, too scared to go and get their prescription, too scared to go and get urgent medical care are just some of the reasons that there were excess deaths in private homes and care homes. 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, BobWillis2 said:

Excess deaths does not mean they were all deaths from covid. Suicides, lack of routine care, loneliness, too scared to go and get their prescription, too scared to go and get urgent medical care are just some of the reasons that there were excess deaths in private homes and care homes. 

Agreed - it doesn't matter that they weren't deaths from COVID though. In most of those cases they would have benefitted from being in hospital and weren't because of COVID - be that through their own reluctance or the NHS not admitting them.

So saying we're definitely okay because most of the people in hospital now wouldn't have been admitted in the first wave isn't a great argument when loads of people should have been in hospital but, for a number of different reasons, weren't.

[steviewevie]

 

[balthazarstarbuck]

17 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

I'm sure the conspiracy theorists will be absolutely fine about the fact that Israel is the only country without restrictions. Can't see them having any issues with that whatsoever.

Yeah that’s on me. I forgot who gets blamed for all conspiracies eventually if you let them run long enough.

[DeanoL]

11 minutes ago, zahidf said:

That wouldnt account for a lot of the hesitancy. Certainly not 10% and in certain ethinic groups

Definitely wouldn't account for all of it but it would be good to see a breakdown of those 150,000 by age group and by those actually engaged in direct patient care to see how much of an issue it actually is.

[Copperface]

11 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Definitely wouldn't account for all of it but it would be good to see a breakdown of those 150,000 by age group and by those actually engaged in direct patient care to see how much of an issue it actually is.

Another little handy step in the ongoing culture war to energise the base too, innit?

[Fuzzy Afro]

32 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Surely the NHS must employ a large number of back office and admin staff in their 20s? They would still have been technically eligible for the vaccine earlier on as NHS workers, but I can also see them ethically wanting to wait until their age group came up? Or not wanting AZ once the news about complications came out.

 

Absolutely no one has the thought process of “I’ve been offered the vaccine now and I want it but I’ll wait until the ethical time for my age group”

 

Either you want it, in which case you snap it up as soon as you get the chance, or you don’t. 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Another little handy step in the ongoing culture war to energise the base too, innit?

is stopping the pandemic a culture war thing now?

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

is stopping the pandemic a culture war thing now?

Not for the first time you have totally missed the point.

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

is stopping the pandemic a culture war thing now?

You can see the headlines now in the papers, blaming certain communities for not getting the vaccine and slowing our escape from lockdown 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

You can see the headlines now in the papers, blaming certain communities for not getting the vaccine and slowing our escape from lockdown 

They haven't done that though ( and the govt haven't). Needs more community targeting in that area

[dingbat2]

This graph I built looks promising, it shows the week on week changes in cases per day (so the percentage increase in cases compared with the same day last week). It shows after significant increases up to about a week ago, the percentage growth in cases is slowing, still 30% week on week, but hopefully this trend will continue. Fingers crossed

[DeanoL]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Absolutely no one has the thought process of “I’ve been offered the vaccine now and I want it but I’ll wait until the ethical time for my age group”

 

Either you want it, in which case you snap it up as soon as you get the chance, or you don’t. 

I think that says more about your outlook on the world that anything else.

All NHS workers were offered it very early on, and for simplicities sake it was just a flat offer to all NHS staff, regardless. But many of them work in admin or back office roles, may not go anywhere near a hospital or patients. It would have been obvious to them that it was being offered to NHS workers early because many of those workers were at high risk because of the much higher chance of picking it up from working with people likely to have it. I wouldn't have been surprised if that was also made clear to staff when it was opened up to them - especially as there was a fairly limited supply for NHS staff at first.

People do think about this stuff, and remember it's also being offered "through work" and even those who don't care about ethics in the rest of their life usually have a bit more caution about how they behave and how something looks "at work".

[Copperface]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

They haven't done that though ( and the govt haven't). Needs more community targeting in that area

Not sure which planet you're on but it's been a subtle narrative for most of the year. 

Similar to the way that the phrase 'multigenerational household' is now almost a code with certain people for Asian.

[BobWillis2]

21 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Absolutely no one has the thought process of “I’ve been offered the vaccine now and I want it but I’ll wait until the ethical time for my age group”

 

Either you want it, in which case you snap it up as soon as you get the chance, or you don’t. 

Err, yes they do. I did it, I waited 4 extra months for my first dose. 

Edited June 16, 2021 by BobWillis2

[Toilet Duck]

23 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Absolutely no one has the thought process of “I’ve been offered the vaccine now and I want it but I’ll wait until the ethical time for my age group”

 

Either you want it, in which case you snap it up as soon as you get the chance, or you don’t. 

Speak for yourself dude! I was offered the vaccine quite a while ago when my lab were being done, but I'm working from home, so waited til it opened for my age group. All of my colleagues did the same (their labs who were in working got vaccinated, but if we didn't have to be on campus regularly, or weren't based out in the hospital, then we waited our turn). I'm sure I've seen others on here post similar (not "virtue signalling" that they would, but actually did, @BobWillis2 maybe?...can't remember who exactly, but it's not that strange a concept!). I absolutely wanted the vaccine (and I get my 2nd dose next week), but recognised that others had greater need. 

 

Edit: I see Bob has confirmed what I was sure I saw while I was writing!

Edited June 16, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[mcshed]

2 hours ago, Havors said:

You are not taking into account any ceiling on cases/hospitalisations due to vaccines. Your calculations only work if we assume the everyone can still catch covid and has a chance of hosptialisation. 

There will come a point where you hit a ceiling... You will never be seeing 24k or 48k cases ever again I think personally. 

But whilst cases are increasing at that rate we've no idea where the ceiling is. Cases do look like they might be starting to slow in which case we might be at the ceiling but whilst cases and with a lag hospitalisations are increasing exponentially it makes sense to be cautious. 

My central point is half as many hospitalisations from cases isn't enough to just let things run wild. If vaccines are doing enough to stop cases running wild then yeah it's fine but we don't know that yet.

[Havors]

10 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Not sure which planet you're on but it's been a subtle narrative for most of the year. 

Similar to the way that the phrase 'multigenerational household' is now almost a code with certain people for Asian.

Little bit cynical. We will run out of words to use to describe cohorts as everything seems to be turned into "code" for something else. 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Speak for yourself dude! I was offered the vaccine quite a while ago when my lab were being done, but I'm working from home, so waited til it opened for my age group. All of my colleagues did the same (their labs who were in working got vaccinated, but if we didn't have to be on campus regularly, or weren't based out in the hospital, then we waited our turn). I'm sure I've seen others on here post similar (not "virtue signalling" that they would, but actually did, @BobWillis2 maybe?...can't remember who exactly, but it's not that strange a concept!). I absolutely wanted the vaccine (and I get my 2nd dose next week), but recognised that others had greater need. 

 

Edit: I see Bob has confirmed what I was sure I saw while I was writing!

fair play to you....and Bob...😬

[zahidf]

In her evidence to the Commons science committee Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser, NHS Test and Trace and deputy director of Public Health England’s National Infection Service, suggested that wearing masks might have to be compulsory for people on public transport for more than 15 minutes after 19 July, the date when regulations are supposed to end.

Asked by the Conservative MP Aaron Bell what “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs, or restrictions) might have to remain in place after 19 July, she said that a lot of this would come down to social responsibility, and people taking decisions on things like masks for herself. But she went on:

This is a balance. In some countries, like Sweden, they have done a lot through social responsibility. In other countries they have legislated heavily.

So I think there is a middle road, as we have vaccination heavily rolled out, that requires potentially, in some areas where there is higher risk, to look at them [NPIs, or restrictions]. One might consider, for example, transport; for those of use who pack ourselves into the Tube regularly, we may feel more comfortable if everyone else was asked to wear a mask for those very close encounters for potentially periods longer than 15 minutes.

But in more general societal areas, such as shops, I think it is going to come down to personal opinions and responsibilities, rather than legislation, for the longer term.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

man, that Cummings bloke likes to write...and write some more...

[Havors]

6 minutes ago, mcshed said:

But whilst cases are increasing at that rate we've no idea where the ceiling is. Cases do look like they might be starting to slow in which case we might be at the ceiling but whilst cases and with a lag hospitalisations are increasing exponentially it makes sense to be cautious. 

My central point is half as many hospitalisations from cases isn't enough to just let things run wild. If vaccines are doing enough to stop cases running wild then yeah it's fine but we don't know that yet.

We could work out a good estimate, if someone bothered. We only have a finite amount of people, and a finite amount of unvaccinated people. We have good working data of transmission, reduction in severity due to age etc...  I'm pretty sure someone could work it out if they haven't already. 

Also with the growth rates already dropping from 60% to 30% and a leveling out of cases over the past 4-5 days I am optimistic we wont be talking about exponential growth very soon. 

 

[Copperface]

9 minutes ago, Havors said:

Little bit cynical. We will run out of words to use to describe cohorts as everything seems to be turned into "code" for something else. 

Looks like you've not noticed either. 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont-speak-in-code-on-race-truth-saves-lives-rd7tr05ss

[JoeyT]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Cummings has played a blinder here.

Said his bit at the committee.

Didn't deliver evidence straight away.

Therefore forces Hancock to lie again & question Cummings reliability.

Now he has Hancock on account lying in public view with evidence to back up previous claims.