When will this shit end?

[balthazarstarbuck]

37 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Daughter, 21, turned up at local GP vax centre uninvited and was treated to a Pfizerbomb.

She's well happy.

I keep reading bits about young people not being keen on the vax but I know that she and her friends have been trying their luck at various centres over the past couple of weeks. Looks to have paid off.

Not the impression I get either. Told our kid (who’s 22) jabs were available via the website. She’d forwarded to all her groups before booking her own.

34 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That chap was very accurate back in the Autumn and I’ve found to be a good balanced source of info as he mainly sticks to the numbers through his calculations. Just because he’s showing some slightly negative information now is only because the situation itself is like that. He deserves to be heard from his past input on the pandemic in my mind. 

I’m not on Twitter anymore because it’s a complete bin fire, but he’s probably the one I’d trust most out of the commentators (and he’s nowhere near perfect). Too many have vested interests one way or the other.

[Copperface]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Good.  Last time I checked, the levels were shockingly low for people working in such a position.

Agree. The only problem is going to be who will actually replace those who don't have it. They are starved of staff as it is.

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

That's the pattern in Greater Manchester too. Another day with decreasing increases pretty much across the board and actual daily drops in four areas, including a sizable decrease in the home of Blossoms.

[zahidf]

33 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

France are jabbing 12 year olds.

What about the vaccinations?

[Copperface]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

What about the vaccinations?

Really?

 

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That's the pattern in Greater Manchester too. Another day with decreasing increases pretty much across the board and actual daily drops in four areas, including a sizable decrease in the home of Blossoms.

Ok so trying to avoid being a doomster but surely as the numbers go up it’s harder to get the same percentage increases from a higher base ? 
 

i will caveat this post with my view of Somerset county ground this eve with a crowd in … sadly my ticket will be refunded thanks to extension but we slowly get back to normality 

 

[efcfanwirral]

29 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I like you and you usually post decent content, but with all due respect, you are talking absolute rubbish.

I've been consistent with this one for ages. We'll see who's right! 

And likewise of course 😘

Edited June 15, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

Ok so trying to avoid being a doomster but surely as the numbers go up it’s harder to get the same percentage increases from a higher base ? 

Means not exponential growth though right? or am I getting my maths completely wrong?

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

Ok so trying to avoid being a doomster but surely as the numbers go up it’s harder to get the same percentage increases from a higher base ? 
 

i will caveat this post with my view of Somerset county ground this eve with a crowd in … sadly my ticket will be refunded thanks to extension but we slowly get back to normality 

 

Well, that's true, but the rises are also slowing in absolute terms. 

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Means not exponential growth though right? or am I getting my maths completely wrong?

You're quite right 🙂

 

[jimmillen]

18 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Means not exponential growth though right? or am I getting my maths completely wrong?

Yeah if the rate of growth is slowing then it can’t be growing exponentially. 

Good news if accurate, BUT we really shouldn’t read too much into the day-to-day figures - there’s too much random variance for it to mean much. 

If we see the same on the 7-day numbers, that would be much more reassuring. Fingers crossed!

Edited June 15, 2021 by jimmillen

[zahidf]

 

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

 

As long as its done by the 19th that's fine - a deadline doesn't have to be smashed out the park 

[zahidf]

Good. Should help with recovery 

[dingbat2]

18 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Ok so trying to avoid being a doomster but surely as the numbers go up it’s harder to get the same percentage increases from a higher base ? 
 

i will caveat this post with my view of Somerset county ground this eve with a crowd in … sadly my ticket will be refunded thanks to extension but we slowly get back to normality 

 

No that's not right, that's what exponential growth, and the r factor, means. So growth increases as a percentage of what it was a fixed period of time ago, not what it was at a fixed base point of time. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Yeah if the rate of growth is slowing then it can’t be growing exponentially. 

Good news if accurate, BUT we really shouldn’t read too into the day-to-day figures - there’s too much random variance for it to mean much. 

If we see the same on the 7-day numbers, that would be much more reassuring. Fingers crossed!

Very true, although normally when there's a directional change over 3-4 days like this, in several boroughs at the same time, it usually shows up in the weekly figures. I'm going to predict most of Manchester will be green within about 10 days, probably sooner.

[zahidf]

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

No that's not right, that's what exponential growth, and the r factor, means. So growth increases as a percentage of what it was a fixed period of time ago, not what it was at a fixed base point of time. 

need to watch that video I think 🙂 ... 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, dingbat2 said:

No that's not right, that's what exponential growth, and the r factor, means. So growth increases as a percentage of what it was a fixed period of time ago, not what it was at a fixed base point of time. 

But it's kind of right that a population only has so much space in it for growth. Given this is a second or third wave in a population that's increasingly vaccinated, it's not surprising that exponential growth is proving hard to maintain.

So in a strict sense, CF is right - but there's nothing gloomy about it and it's not what would happen in an immunologically naïve population.

[efcfanwirral]

A surprising place to give a quote to but still...potential good news at least for the festivals staying in business if not insurance for this year 

[dingbat2]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

But it's kind of right that a population only has so much space in it for growth. Given this is a second or third wave in a population that's increasingly vaccinated, it's not surprising that exponential growth is proving hard to maintain.

So in a strict sense, CF is right - but there's nothing gloomy about it and it's not what would happen in an immunologically naïve population.

Absolutely, and that's the hope, that cases, and far more importantly hospitalisations, get to a point where the virus is no longer spread exponentially due to restrictions and vaccinations, that's what all the graphs are hoping to show. Fingers crossed recent days figures might be showing a slight flattening in the exponential graph (and hence r). Positive indications have been seen in recent days following similar positive data in recent weeks on Bolton

[Copperface]

18 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Good. Should help with recovery 

Those measures are also part of the Coronavirus Act you've been so vociferous about rescinding for the past year.

[incident]

6 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

A surprising place to give a quote to but still...potential good news at least for the festivals staying in business if not insurance for this year 

It's better than nothing.. but to be blunt about it 300 million is still nowhere near enough, even combined with previous rounds of funding, given the huge range of organisations covered and eligible to apply. Especially for the events that have now lost 2 entire years worth of business while still accumulating costs.

One of the main problems with the support schemes so far has been (and I don't expect it to be addressed this time either), is that while organisations directly involved in the arts like venues, festivals, etc can apply for these Cultural Recovery grants, most of the companies that they contract work to can't - so for example I assume that Serious Stages have had a pretty tough 18 months unless they've been able to repurpose some of their structures for NHS/vaccine centre type use. Its compounded by the fact that many of the individuals working in the industry aren't eligible for furlough due to the nature of their employment, and many may not get the self-employed help either.

[Ozanne]

It’s right that the ban in evictions is extended, it should save numerous amounts of businesses from going under. 

[stuartbert two hats]

13 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

Absolutely, and that's the hope, that cases, and far more importantly hospitalisations, get to a point where the virus is no longer spread exponentially due to restrictions and vaccinations, that's what all the graphs are hoping to show. Fingers crossed recent days figures might be showing a slight flattening in the exponential graph (and hence r). Positive indications have been seen in recent days following similar positive data in recent weeks on Bolton

We have five weeks to get to that point on immunity alone. Given that I suspect the last step was bigger than the next one, we might actually be in with a chance, especially as we've just started jabbing the most social part of the population with the best immune systems and the fastest vaccine.

It would be really great if we suddenly started jabbing Novavax, but it's probably too late.