When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I’ve always been a half glass full kind of guy so tend to lean that way.

Partly as a way of dealing with shit things but also to try and help others who perhaps need it. Let’s face it there won’t be many on here who haven’t had at least one down day during the last 16months.

I know what I’d rather see at a low point!

In regards to Oliver Johnson, yeah he’s sat firmly on the fence so I’ll post his stuff when he’s got something nice to say 😂

How do you know I haven’t had a shit day and you calling me out for something that isn’t true hasn’t made me feel worse? You don’t, so keep that glass half full mentality when you see what I share as I’m only sharing information I find helpful. 

[stuie]

1 hour ago, Havors said:

I think events could be treated completely independent of steps... 

If the pilots give back positive data then there is a chance they would go ahead with the required planning and testing, regardless of what step we are at. 

I think that’s what should happen but the optics don’t look good. People at music festivals while other restrictions still in place. 

A bit like these scenes while we can’t go to events! Margate beach and Wembley on Sunday! 

[Crazyfool01]

For those that can get to bath and west or know people that can … 

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I’ve always been a half glass full kind of guy so tend to lean that way.

Partly as a way of dealing with shit things but also to try and help others who perhaps need it. Let’s face it there won’t be many on here who haven’t had at least one down day during the last 16months.

I know what I’d rather see at a low point!

In regards to Oliver Johnson, yeah he’s sat firmly on the fence so I’ll post his stuff when he’s got something nice to say 😂

definitely a half glass empty kind of guy here...I'm always the one saying how shit the weather forecast is looking for glastonbury...

[incident]

43 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

He really does like being selective with his data, doesn't he?

Plot that against November and/or January waves, and then he may (or most likely won't) have a point.

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...and delta just starting to spread in US...and they have lower percentage vaccinated, especially in some states. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a problem later this summer.

Not all.

Health and safety protocols, like masking and social distancing, will remain in place in certain settings, including public transit and schools.

In New York City, the subway has returned to 24-hour service. Riders must continue to wear masks. For more information, visit mta.info.

The State will continue to follow CDC guidelines for unvaccinated individuals, meaning that those who haven't yet received their vaccines should continue to wear masks indoors and maintain social distance.

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

Hungry 67,000 in the stadium...

No pies 

[JoeyT]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

How do you know I haven’t had a shit day and you calling me out for something that isn’t true hasn’t made me feel worse? You don’t, so keep that glass half full mentality when you see what I share as I’m only sharing information I find helpful. 

I’d like to think if you were having a shit time of it, be that a day or any longer that you’d be in a position to reach out to friends, family or even folks on here. It’s been an absolute world upside down period of all of our life's after all.

Ultimately I’d rather take my last breath with a smile on my face than a frown. That’s all I’m getting at.

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

definitely a half glass empty kind of guy here...I'm always the one saying how shit the weather forecast is looking for glastonbury...

No such thing as bad weather just bad preparation 😉

[incident]

9 minutes ago, incident said:

He really does like being selective with his data, doesn't he?

Plot that against November and/or January waves, and then he may (or most likely won't) have a point.

Yep, thought so:

Same logic - 5% of cases, hospitalisations on a 10 day delay. Rather than tracking around ~5% in November/January, it was usually ~10% and a few times went >15%

[balthazarstarbuck]

Just now, incident said:

Yep, thought so:

Same logic - 5% of cases, hospitalisations on a 10 day delay. Rather than tracking around ~5% in November/January, it was usually ~10% and a few times went >15%

I think his point is more that you can still accurately predict a rise in hospitalisations from a rise in case numbers, and calling people out for saying the link has been broken when it hasn't.

Each case is less likely to result in a hospitalisation then January,  but there is a proportionality still.

[Havors]

1 minute ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

I think his point is more that you can still accurately predict a rise in hospitalisations from a rise in case numbers, and calling people out for saying the link has been broken when it hasn't.

Each case is less likely to result in a hospitalisation then January,  but there is a proportionality still.

In theory though there is a ceiling for the ratio due to vaccination. If the cases increase significantly then the % ratio will likely drop with a bigger data set....  if vaccines are working.

[incident]

Just now, balthazarstarbuck said:

I think his point is more that you can still accurately predict a rise in hospitalisations from a rise in case numbers, and calling people out for saying the link has been broken when it hasn't.

Each case is less likely to result in a hospitalisation then January,  but there is a proportionality still.

To be honest I don't have a lot of (or any, really) patience for people (on all sides) getting pedantic over what "broken" means. And now I'm going to disgust myself by (kind of) doing just that.

The link as was is clearly broken and has been since about mid-March and I think that's what most people would generally use it to mean. You can indeed still use cases to predict hospitalisations, but it's not the same link as before - with the important additional caveat that the hospitalisations we are seeing are far less severe and reportedly wouldn't have been admitted when the NHS was busy.

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

I think his point is more that you can still accurately predict a rise in hospitalisations from a rise in case numbers, and calling people out for saying the link has been broken when it hasn't.

Each case is less likely to result in a hospitalisation then January,  but there is a proportionality still.

The guy we all seem to agree with makes much the same analysis as the hive mind on this forum:

 

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, incident said:

Yep, thought so:

Same logic - 5% of cases, hospitalisations on a 10 day delay. Rather than tracking around ~5% in November/January, it was usually ~10% and a few times went >15%

is Oliver Johnson another one of those nerds who wants to keep us all locked down?

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, incident said:

To be honest I don't have a lot of (or any, really) patience for people (on all sides) getting pedantic over what "broken" means. And now I'm going to disgust myself by (kind of) doing just that.

The link as was is clearly broken and has been since about mid-March and I think that's what most people would generally use it to mean. You can indeed still use cases to predict hospitalisations, but it's not the same link as before - with the important additional caveat that the hospitalisations we are seeing are far less severe and reportedly wouldn't have been admitted when the NHS was busy.

That's really not what anyone would reasonably expect "broken" to mean.  Broken means there isn't a link anymore, not that there's still a link, it's just 3x smaller.

[incident]

Just now, steviewevie said:

is Oliver Johnson another one of those nerds who wants to keep us all locked down?

I don't use that terminology as you well know.

[incident]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

That's really not what anyone would reasonably expect "broken" to mean.  Broken means there isn't a link anymore, not that there's still a link, it's just 3x smaller.

Have you ever broken your arm?

[stuartbert two hats]

8 minutes ago, incident said:

Have you ever broken your arm?

No.  Therefore, I don't follow your analogy  😋

Seriously though, although an arm is still attached after its been broken (mainly because it's actually your bone that breaks, which is surrounded by fleshy stuff), you can't still lift 1/3 of the same weights.  With a broken arm*, you can't really lift anything.

If you're climbing a tree and the branch breaks, you don't expect the branch to be able to carry weight that's 1/3 of your body weight - it's broken.

 

EDIT: I've just re-read John Burn-Murdoch's tweet back and it looks like the relationship has only been reduced to 1/2, not 1/3! (Although the outcomes tend to be much better to be fair)

* Really hoping plaster casts don't get dragged into this analogy 😄

Edited June 15, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, incident said:

To be honest I don't have a lot of (or any, really) patience for people (on all sides) getting pedantic over what "broken" means. And now I'm going to disgust myself by (kind of) doing just that.

The link as was is clearly broken and has been since about mid-March and I think that's what most people would generally use it to mean. You can indeed still use cases to predict hospitalisations, but it's not the same link as before - with the important additional caveat that the hospitalisations we are seeing are far less severe and reportedly wouldn't have been admitted when the NHS was busy.

Seriously though, I'm with you on the "broken" term just being really unhelpful in this context.  Let's not use it.

[Ozanne]

28 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I’d like to think if you were having a shit time of it, be that a day or any longer that you’d be in a position to reach out to friends, family or even folks on here. It’s been an absolute world upside down period of all of our life's after all.

Ultimately I’d rather take my last breath with a smile on my face than a frown. That’s all I’m getting at.

 

I’ve proven that your comments on me aren’t true as I’ve provided positive info in the last day, so your post was unfounded.

[balthazarstarbuck]

9 minutes ago, Havors said:

In theory though there is a ceiling for the ratio due to vaccination. If the cases increase significantly then the % ratio will likely drop with a bigger data set....  if vaccines are working.

I don’t doubt that, and there’s gonna be a hell of a lot of noise the lower we go. 

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve proven that your comments on me aren’t true as I’ve provided positive info in the last day, so your post was unfounded.

One swallow doesn’t make a summer fella.

[Ozanne]

Just now, JoeyT said:

One swallow doesn’t make a summer fella.

Ah good so you are ignoring the evidence I showed because it doesn’t suit your perception of me. I thought you were a glass half full guy, it doesn’t seem it. 

[Copperface]

Daughter, 21, turned up at local GP vax centre uninvited and was treated to a Pfizerbomb.

She's well happy.

I keep reading bits about young people not being keen on the vax but I know that she and her friends have been trying their luck at various centres over the past couple of weeks. Looks to have paid off.

[Ozanne]

19 minutes ago, balthazarstarbuck said:

I think his point is more that you can still accurately predict a rise in hospitalisations from a rise in case numbers, and calling people out for saying the link has been broken when it hasn't.

Each case is less likely to result in a hospitalisation then January,  but there is a proportionality still.

That chap was very accurate back in the Autumn and I’ve found to be a good balanced source of info as he mainly sticks to the numbers through his calculations. Just because he’s showing some slightly negative information now is only because the situation itself is like that. He deserves to be heard from his past input on the pandemic in my mind.