When will this shit end?

[Havors]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

My conspiracy theory is that Mr Barry and Barry Fish are the same guy but bipolar. Anti-lockdown half the time and a Pagel worshipper the other half. 

Hahaha cant lie that did cross my mind last week... 😄 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I like how @MrBarry465 is exposed as rule breaker, selfish and can't back up his claims and quickly moves to talking about football songs 🙂 

Haha you are such a wind up... it wont end well. 

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I like how @MrBarry465 is exposed as rule breaker, selfish and can't back up his claims and quickly moves to talking about football songs 🙂 

I'm really not a 'rule breaker', I've followed them pretty closely. Im gonna go out on a limb here and say you've probably not been 100% complient since the start?

But yes OK, out me as a 'rule breaker' to help your narrative.

[mcshed]

13 minutes ago, Havors said:

Oh I love how jolly and fun you are 😄😄 

Its a terrible song but its still fun, and harks back to a period were England "fans" weren't 90% racist hooligans 😄 

When was that then?

[Avalon_Fields]

22 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

Long time lurker, first time poster (in this thread).  Didn't quite expect this thread to develop into something as virulent and divisive as Twitter, but here we are.  

A lot of posts here suggesting people aren't looking at the data, or interpreting it correctly.  I would suggest following someone like @JamesWard73 on Twitter to understand WHY we're extending 4 weeks.  As with Frank Turner above, I'm really really struggling with this, and feel like Feb 2021 and RIGHT NOW are my lowest points of the pandemic.  It affects my work, my relationship and my mental health.  But even with that, I think that a slight delay will help with the 'exit wave' and prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, or at least (in 2 weeks) allow us to get a fuller picture of the data and see that that scenario may not be borne out and we can unlock then.  We're basically weighing lives against business/mental health/incomes etc, and that is fucking hard enough even with a full picture of the data.  I also hate the shit out of the Tories and Johnson, BUT I'm almost certain half of the people calling for unlocking now were also the ones criticising the Tories for unlocking to early last time and not paying heed to the Kent variant.  You can kind of understand their caution, surely?  The fact that hospitalisations aren't tailing off in the NW and the fact that young people are being hospitalised (coupled with the spectre of long covid), suggests opening up nightclubs right now MIGHT not be the best idea.  But, I don't know, and I really really want to get back to normal, and I think there is a possibility that deaths may stay in the 10-20 per day range, which is probably broadly acceptable?  But...nuance and uncertainty isn't fashionable.  So, let the abuse commence...

Thanks for your positive contribution.

From my perspective 10-20 death per day being possibly 'acceptable' is far too unrealistic and over-cautious. We will easily be causing more deaths than this by lack of access or delayed treatment for urgent conditions. I know, as I am a volunteer with various cancer charities and an NHS Trust. Cancer patients are dying because of this lockdown. 

PREVENTABLE deaths (According to the ONS) in England & Wales annually is around 96,000. Perspective.

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Is "mates" the new way of saying "me" 😛 

Barry, an entirely genuine question 'cos I'd like to understand. What are you getting out of your contributions to all this? 

Seriously, I'm not trying to set this up as any kind of gotcha or turn it around to criticise you or whatever. I'd just like to know.

[maelzoid]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

People don't care unless it directly affects them it seems.  Feel sorry for you guys personally.   This is going to impact a lot of business 😞 

I do care, but with case numbers rising, it is prudent to halt the re-opening until it can be confirmed that hospitalisations and death do not also begin to rise as well.

I remain sympathetic to all businesses and workers affected, but a full-blown 3rd wave will be far more damaging than an extended 4-week of semi-lockdown. 

I think it's incredibly disingenuous to claim that people who support maintaining the current lock down don't care. As hard as it is,  the aim is to cause less damage in the long run. We can see the effects of putting the economy before saving lives back last December when we absolutely should not have relaxed the rules, but did and that lead to the last 6 months we've had.

[Stokesy10]

14 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I agree with you it is fun.

The idea football fans weren't racist in the 90s though is for the birds.

Nothing like tarnishing everyone with the same brush ay? 😆

[Zoo Music Girl]

3 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

I do care, but with case numbers rising, it is prudent to halt the re-opening until it can be confirmed that hospitalisations and death do not also begin to rise as well.

I remain sympathetic to all businesses and workers affected, but a full-blown 3rd wave will be far more damaging than an extended 4-week of semi-lockdown. 

I think it's incredibly disingenuous to claim that people who support maintaining the current lock down don't care. As hard as it is,  the aim is to cause less damage in the long run. We can see the effects of putting the economy before saving lives back last December when we absolutely should not have relaxed the rules, but did and that lead to the last 6 months we've had.

Great post, completely agree.

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, mcshed said:

When was that then?

A very short period in the 90s haha! I can say from experience in Liverpool it was the ONLY time that people from Liverpool followed in England... then post 98 world cup we realised who we were associating with and stopped again 🙂 

[Avalon_Fields]

[MrBarry465]

15 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

People don't care unless it directly affects them it seems.  Feel sorry for you guys personally.   This is going to impact a lot of business 😞 

This just isn't acccurate.

People do care and as others have said, it's actually possible to view the situation as less black and white than you.

It's possible to have concern for businesess, but then also be concerned around the possible impact rushing a reopening will have on the health of the community.

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Doesnt help much... thats only up to May. 

[jimmillen]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I am mostly bored.

Thanks for a straightforward answer! Fair enough. 

[Ed90]

4 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Thanks for your positive contribution.

From my perspective 10-20 death per day being possibly 'acceptable' is far too unrealistic and over-cautious. We will easily be causing more deaths than this by lack of access or delayed treatment for urgent conditions. I know, as I am a volunteer with various cancer charities and an NHS Trust. Cancer patients are dying because of this lockdown. 

PREVENTABLE deaths (According to the ONS) in England & Wales annually is around 96,000. Perspective.

You're of course right, I was somewhat lowballing to avoid controversy.  The idea of weighing up the value of life is a heavy prospect.  On the flip side of this though, the NHS will be overloaded if we unlock at the wrong moment.  There WILL be an exit wave, its just a question of when and how bad, which involves a large amount of guesswork right now.  But, your point is totally valid, and becoming more and more valid the more people are vaxxed.  There does indeed come a point where we have to live with a certain amount of deaths. Who knows what the fuck that is though!

Also, thanks everyone for the positive response to my post, you genuinely gave me a bit of energy to get out of bed.  (Although I've obviously got problems if I need validation from strangers on the internet to do so).

[JB15]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Am I really out one a limb to say that graph doesn't look concerning at all ?   its only a slightly bigger lump than April..  and its clearly tailing off ?

I’d say the tail off is too small to call a trend. A few more days of that and it would be looking promising

[Ed90]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Am I really out one a limb to say that graph doesn't look concerning at all ?   its only a slightly bigger lump than April..  and its clearly tailing off ?

Fingers crossed.  Case numbers also seem to at least be levelling off in Bolton.
I think Manchester is the one to watch, as it will give us a good ideas of what will happen in other big cities (with lots of young people).

[tigger123]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051
 

Headache, sore throat and runny nose now most common symptoms for delta variant. Good timing as we enter hay fever season...

[Havors]

6 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

You're of course right, I was somewhat lowballing to avoid controversy.  The idea of weighing up the value of life is a heavy prospect.  On the flip side of this though, the NHS will be overloaded if we unlock at the wrong moment.  There WILL be an exit wave, its just a question of when and how bad, which involves a large amount of guesswork right now.  But, your point is totally valid, and becoming more and more valid the more people are vaxxed.  There does indeed come a point where we have to live with a certain amount of deaths. Who knows what the fuck that is though!

Also, thanks everyone for the positive response to my post, you genuinely gave me a bit of energy to get out of bed.  (Although I've obviously got problems if I need validation from strangers on the internet to do so).

I would have said we are in the exit wave. I think we may cause more problems delaying by forcing the exit wave to carry over into Autumn when we will get hit by seasonal issues and then we are in even more trouble that if we just got the exit wave out of the way. 

[maelzoid]

8 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Am I really out one a limb to say that graph doesn't look concerning at all ?   its only a slightly bigger lump than April..  and its clearly tailing off ?

Yes, I think you are. The issue here, is not that it isn't concerning, nor that it definitely looks like a 3rd wave is about to strike, but really it could go either way. There's absolutely no doubt that the delta variant is causing the increase in infections, but we need to establish the impact of those increased infections, and that's why we need to pause.

Of course, if we pause, and get the numbers back under control as more people are vaccinated, people will always look back and say we didn't need to maintain the restrictions...

[maelzoid]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

I would have said we are in the exit wave. I think we may cause more problems delaying by forcing the exit wave to carry over into Autumn when we will get hit by seasonal issues and then we are in even more trouble that if we just got the exit wave out of the way. 

Exit wave? How about no wave at all? A third wave is not inevitable.

[Ed90]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

I would have said we are in the exit wave. I think we may cause more problems delaying by forcing the exit wave to carry over into Autumn when we will get hit by seasonal issues and then we are in even more trouble that if we just got the exit wave out of the way. 

Interesting point - maybe the 18-30 crowd are mixing to the fullest extent already, and the unlocking won't actually lead to a bigger peak in the wave than we're seeing now.  But...I would imagine that people going back to work, and nightclubs, would probably induce a much bigger wave.  

You're right about Autumn though, and all the modelling and analysis I've seen is about getting it all done by the end of summer.  I think a lot of the current thinking is about having the exit wave/unlocking coincide with school holidays...

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I get concerned when I see evidence of an issue.  I don't get concerned when I guess there might be an issue.

I think that is a fundlemental difference between some of us.

I think its been pointed out its only up to May that graph and we really need the June numbers to see if there is a real issue or just a lot of fear.

This is very much the difference between someone who 'reacts' to a situation and someone who 'pro actively' analyses something and avoids that situation.

 

[Havors]

6 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

Exit wave? How about no wave at all? A third wave is not inevitable.

An exit wave is inevitable unless you never exit, you are very mistaken. 

[incident]

23 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Am I really out one a limb to say that graph doesn't look concerning at all ?   its only a slightly bigger lump than April..  and its clearly tailing off ?

No, you're right - as I've pointed out previously - the Hospital numbers appear to have peaked at a literal fraction of what they were in January. Whereas the numbers for actual infections has peaked slightly higher than January.

It's a dramatic reduction in NHS impact relative to cases - ie exactly what we're supposed to be considering success.