When will this shit end?

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

13 July

Isn’t it just 1 month from the date you generate the QR code in the app? 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Isn’t it just 1 month from the date you generate the QR code in the app? 

I'm sure mine said 20th June before. It does say that refreshes every 30 days, not sure that's got anything to do with anything.

[JB15]

45 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

To be fair I think Andrew Neil deserves a bit more respect than that.

Why?

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

I cannot believe the Fox News of the UK is here. 

Unfortunately I can very easily believe it

[steviewevie]

GB News w*nk lol

[found home in 2009]

39 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Nobody under 60odd should expect pensions to exist when we're older. Why would they?  A relic from a bygone age. 2008 was the end of that for anyone not near pension age 

I think everyone that earns enough should take some responsibility for organising personal pensions (and the government is starting to nudge people in that direction), but I'm not convinced it's realistic to expect minimum wage workers to be able to save enough for a pension and I don't think we should force people to work till they drop. The government still has a responsibility there in my opinion.

I know we're currently struggling with an aging population, but wont the dynamics shift again when the baby boomers die off?

[Havors]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Yeah, it may well. I'm cautiously hopeful that the tide will turn. However, I am cautious about looking too much at the national picture, as there have been some big geographical differences over the last few weeks - if we have some areas taking off with Delta whilst other are still decreasing because it's not reached those areas yet - then the big rises in some areas are masked by what's happening elsewhere, when the lowish areas may still take off. On the other hand, the longer other areas go without being infected, the more chance they have for vaccines bed in and make outbreaks harder.

I've been burnt a few times by trying to see a pattern in the daily numbers, but sometimes it really does show the way. I'm really encouraged by the slowdown in Greater Manchester yesterday.  If I had to bet, I'd say we'll see an increased flattening over the next few days, but won't be flat over 7 days.

I'm increasingly confident this extension will do the job.

I can pretty much agree with all that 👍

[Havors]

58 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

My biggest bug bear is people who are rightly entitled to get into social housing but when their circumstances change significantly. They are then able to continue to remain in the social dwelling for eternity. 

These sorts of policies just elongate the waiting list and make social housing less obtainable for those who truely need it. 

When their circumstances change for the better though they stop getting their rent paid for. So they are then paying for housing? 

This biggest joke is the amount of empty properties nation wide that are just not utilised 

[Leyrulion]

3 hours ago, Havors said:

You said exponential is now over a longer period... how long is the period? who says when to start and stop the period I mean.

Pretty simple really. 

You've not understood exponential growth properly. It seems simple but people make simple mistakes like you have. 

 

Let me see if I can dig up some resources to help.

[efcfanwirral]

38 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

13 July

Seen the same on twitter. Rumoured two week break clause is sounding about right....with vaccine proof to do stuff like new york 

Edited June 13, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

8 minutes ago, Havors said:

When their circumstances change for the better though they stop getting their rent paid for. So they are then paying for housing? 

This biggest joke is the amount of empty properties nation wide that are just not utilised 

The rent is not comparable to the private rental market.

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Nobody under 60odd should expect pensions to exist when we're older. Why would they?  A relic from a bygone age. 2008 was the end of that for anyone not near pension age 

I’m fucked then 

[Havors]

8 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

You've not understood exponential growth properly. It seems simple but people make simple mistakes like you have. 

 

Let me see if I can dig up some resources to help.

The issue is not me understanding exponential, I do. 

Did you say what you said is the question? And why can't you explain what you meant? 

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Single dose here and mine is now saying 13th July

Interesting...maybe one dose domestically to show intent?

[Havors]

7 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

The rent is not comparable to the private rental market.

Depends if the housing was completely social to start with. Most social housing these days is through private landlords and the rent is comparable. 

[steviewevie]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/experts-back-four-week-delay-lifting-covid-restrictions-england-more-people-vaccinated

[stuartbert two hats]

You know when I said it was dangerous to try to read the tea leaves by looking at daily numbers? Well I'm doing it anyway:

The good news - slowdowns in most of the GM regions continue. Stockport is still down on Friday's number (234.5) . I've scanned across the regions, and other than one notable exception, they've all slower their increase.

The bad news - Bolton has stopped dropping week on week and has registered a daily rise. In fact, I've only just noticed, but Bolton has had several small daily rises this week, with the most recent, the largest in a while, a rise of 9, which I make to be a 3% daily rise.

Jab. Jab. Jab!

[Havors]

7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Single dose here and mine is now saying 13th July

Where are you seeing this? There's an app that shows vaccination status? My is booked for August 2nd would be handy to bring it forward 

[Chapple12345]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

“There are a couple of things that are happening that should make a big difference in the next few weeks. First of all, vaccinations. Second, and slightly more subtly, schools will be out soon, and every week closer to that means less mixing in schools and more people likely to be off work, both reducing transmission,” said Prof Rowland Kao of the University of Edinburgh. “Both of those things, vaccinations and schools, means that the delay has real benefit right now.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/experts-back-four-week-delay-lifting-covid-restrictions-england-more-people-vaccinated?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

I think its a good point about schools breaking up in combination with the extra vaccines.  I wouldn't mind this delay if there was a proper commitment to open up straight after and not just go into "maybe" period.

This is my thinking too, if he can make this the completely final push and that means we can drop restrictions further from 19th July I think everyone will be far happier, also important he emphasises nothing is going to change in the meantime 

[stuartbert two hats]

There's been a fair bit of chat about exponential growth. I'm not saying anyone does or does not understand it, but I will say it's difficult to intuitively get your head around. I was pretty sure I did understand it, then I watched this video and realised I didn't quite - at least, whilst I may have intellectually, I didn't instinctively.  See if you do any better than me at predicting how each step increases.

 

Now, I know we're not looking at unbounded growth, as the experiences in Bolton and potentially the rest of Manchester are showing, so it doesn't hold. But hopefully it explains why I've tended to be much more interested in growth rates than the absolute numbers at any one time, since numbers can very quickly jump from reasonably low to huge in quite a short period of time, in a way that's just not intuitive.

Besides, this channel's "Good and bad CGI" videos are great!

BTW, I've not actually watched the video since it came out, so some of the stuff specifically around COVID rather than just visualising exponential growth may have dated.

[efcfanwirral]

14 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

This is my thinking too, if he can make this the completely final push and that means we can drop restrictions further from 19th July I think everyone will be far happier, also important he emphasises nothing is going to change in the meantime 

Not possible. 4 weeks of will they won't they, doom predictions then leaks that it won't happen for a few days before an announcement on a further delay. Why would anyone expect anything different at this point?

[jimmillen]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

There's been a fair bit of chat about exponential growth. I'm not saying anyone does or does not understand it, but I will say it's difficult to intuitively get your head around. I was pretty sure I did understand it, then I watched this video and realised I didn't quite - at least, whilst I may have intellectually, I didn't instinctively.  See if you do any better than me at predicting how each step increases.

 

Now, I know we're not looking at unbounded growth, as the experiences in Bolton and potentially the rest of Manchester are showing, so it doesn't hold. But hopefully it explains why I've tended to be much more interested in growth rates than the absolute numbers at any one time, since numbers can very quickly jump from reasonably low to huge in quite a short period of time, in a way that's just not intuitive.

Besides, this channel's "Good and bad CGI" videos are great!

BTW, I've not actually watched the video since it came out, so some of the stuff specifically around COVID rather than just visualising exponential growth may have dated.

It’s good that - explained about as well as anything I’ve seen on the topic 👍

Lack of understanding exponential change is a huge problem. 

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

It’s good that - explained about as well as anything I’ve seen on the topic 👍

Lack of understanding exponential change is a huge problem. 

The concept is quite simple. But really feeling it is tricky.

[Zoo Music Girl]

My covid vaccination app thingy also says 13 July. Double jabbed, had my second on June 5th.

[Leyrulion]

56 minutes ago, Havors said:

Did you say what you said is the question? 

I really don't want to get involved in internet arguments tonight, this thread can get toxic enough I'm the best of times.

Hope you have a good evening.