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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Just now, jimmillen said:

Gotcha. That's kind of what I was getting at saying to be meaningful, we need to know the demographics of those who have died after double vaccinations.

If indeed they were all in highly vulnerable groups, then I agree - it's not bad news at all. 

OTOH, if it includes previously healthy NHS workers or similar then it might be very bad.

Thankfully whilst we might not have the data, hopefully those making the decisions will do...!

To be fair I forgot that healthcare workers are included in the priority groups. I was just translating it to age and UHC’s.

 

@Toilet Duck is my fag packet maths in any way OK? I calculate 99.6% efficacy against death. 

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Potentially have to cancel my vaccination for later today, but I've gone onto the 'manage booking' area of the NHS website and am getting the following message:

If you want to cancel your appointments you will have to come back tomorrow to cancel and rebook.

That seems bonkers, surely they would prefer I cancel before the appointment rather than afterwards?

Anybody else had this issue? 

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4 minutes ago, El Matador said:

Worth remembering that dying within 28 days of a positive covid test is not the same as dying because of covid as well. 

This is true - at such small numbers even a handful of these can muddy the waters a lot

Hopefully that new way of counting hospitalisations (whether they're ill with it or just tested positive) will extend to death figures as well

Edited by efcfanwirral
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18 minutes ago, Kusy said:

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I still struggle with the wording and the difference between with and because of...

Those 12 people could have died of say heart failure and just had a positive test while in hospital? I wish they would determine the difference.... especially when the numbers are so low and the difference is of more significance than ever. 

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Another question on those 12 deaths- did they die within two weeks of being fully vaccinated? Or did they contract it without two weeks of being fully vaccinated? If the former (which is how I read it) then the protection from the second won't have kicked in yet.

Edited by Zoo Music Girl
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17 minutes ago, Havors said:

I still struggle with the wording and the difference between with and because of...

Those 12 people could have died of say heart failure and just had a positive test while in hospital? I wish they would determine the difference.... especially when the numbers are so low and the difference is of more significance than ever. 

And then there's a chance covid has caused the issues that led to their deaths (heart issues, strokes etc) despite them maybe no longer being positive, so that's a middle ground too. More nuanced statistics are definitely needed!

Edited by efcfanwirral
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21 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

To be fair I forgot that healthcare workers are included in the priority groups. I was just translating it to age and UHC’s.

 

@Toilet Duck is my fag packet maths in any way OK? I calculate 99.6% efficacy against death. 

Not sure about the maths, but while it looks scary that 28% of of people that died had been double vaccinated (if we vaccinate everyone, eventually everybody that dies in the future will have been double vaccinated)...but I think the headline figure here should be that the CFR of this variant in a vaccinated & partially vaccinated population is <0.1% (42 deaths from just over 42,000 cases...obviously, not everyone is out of the woods yet, so the final number remains unknown). Without vaccination, we'd likely still be seeing a CFR north of 2%. Where it is now is round about where seasonal flu is when we vaccinate the vulnerable, so if it holds like this, then this is basically what we have to decide to live with. Looking for reasons why people died is kind of immaterial (with or of is not the point, especially when we don't know all pathologies that the virus can cause), but <0.1% of those that have caught this variant have died (so far) and that's a good thing (relatively speaking). I know younger people are catching it and that changes the CFR, but younger people are catching it because they aren't vaccinated. It's still too early to say that this is the trend, data with so few events is intrinsically noisy, but if it holds, then this is pretty much where we end up (I'm cautious as we had this same discussion back in August/September when cases started to rise and it eventually spilled into the more vulnerable population, so calling it early isn't the best idea, however, vaccinations do change things massively...we'll see over the next while by how much). 

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18 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

The third point is what I was getting at yesterday when saying about regional restrictions/approaches and how these have been totally discarded. It appears that it is no coincidence that my area with high double vaccine uptake (probably due to older population) has some of the lowest rates in the country whereas Bolton/Blackburn have the lowest double vaccine uptake (and first dose uptake) but cases are rocketing.

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25 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Reading that Meaghan Kall thread - it isn't clear still whether delta ~40% or ~60% more transmissable than alpha..so still some uncertainty there.

think the ~60% is increase in household transmission, and ~40% is increase in community transmission. I'm not totally sure about that though.

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2 hours ago, MrBarry465 said:

I've had it and wasn't good but prefer that to blood clots.

The stats I’ve read indicate that 15 people in 3.6million who’ve received the AZ vaccine developed blood clots. That’s a 0.0004% chance. 

As far as I know, that’s a much lower chance than developing serious side effects through Covid, so I’m not sure I follow you? 

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21 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

The third point is what I was getting at yesterday when saying about regional restrictions/approaches and how these have been totally discarded. It appears that it is no coincidence that my area with high double vaccine uptake (probably due to older population) has some of the lowest rates in the country whereas Bolton/Blackburn have the lowest double vaccine uptake (and first dose uptake) but cases are rocketing.

Same in my area we are currently very low with one of the highest vaccination rates …. 

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Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Same in my area we are currently very low with one of the highest vaccination rates …. 

Yeah and you are just up the road from me (Torbay)! Not surprising with the amount of older people down here and, perhaps, a lower amount of ethnic minorities generally more sceptical about the vaccine?

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The later they are leaving it - are we thinking the 21st is more likely to happen?
I mean it would be incredibly silly to wait until Monday if they have known for a few days that a delay is definitely needed. It would give the businesses a couple of additional days to plan ahead, which could be vital for their survival. 

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2 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

Yeah and you are just up the road from me (Torbay)! Not surprising with the amount of older people down here and, perhaps, a lower amount of ethnic minorities generally more sceptical about the vaccine?

It’s struggling to get a grasp … although numbers are starting to rumble upwards the last few days and it doesn’t take long as we know to become a lot larger … also lower population density would be a factor 

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6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Same in my area we are currently very low with one of the highest vaccination rates …. 

Im in Norfolk and we've apprently got the highest first doses in the country, we do also have an elderly population so lots of take up there I imagine. Also on our local news last night they said fewer people are in hospital with covid in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex combined than in Bolton 

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