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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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6 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

I wonder how much work it would entail to create a separate booking page for under 40s and make explicitly clear at the outset that they are going to be having AZ? That obviously then enables people to have the choice, the government to get rid of an AZ stockpile, more jabs in arms but may logistically be hard to sort given the number of vaccination stations?

They could have AZ days at specific venues maybe? 

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6 minutes ago, hodgey123 said:

I wonder how much work it would entail to create a separate booking page for under 40s and make explicitly clear at the outset that they are going to be having AZ? That obviously then enables people to have the choice, the government to get rid of an AZ stockpile, more jabs in arms but may logistically be hard to sort given the number of vaccination stations?

Some are doing both anyway so wouldn't be that difficult. Some I've worked at have changed from Pfizer to AZ to both. Same basic set-up innit.

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1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Yeah I would hope so. I guess the answer is just to open it up as an option to people if they want it.

That's it, all you can do is offer people the choice and give them the support they need if they do develop a blood clot. Offering them the choice would put us in a better position for definite

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16 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think we are at that stage yet but a part of me does think we should move back to step 2. I still think we should stay with step 3 but it doesn’t look good the way the data is going. 

I disagree on going backwards. I was against Step 3 when it happened, but now it's happened, the economic damage going backwards would be immense - far worse than just extending the current step.

 

13 hours ago, incident said:

I realise that we can't and shouldn't assume that what happened in Bolton will be exactly replicated elsewhere - but by the same token, so far there's nothing of substance to suggest that it'll be substantially worse elsewhere.

I actually think the data in Bolton is one of the reasons the scientists are getting worried. Yes, it's far better than their models suggested in even the best case scenario. Which should be good news. But if you're a scientist, it's worrying. Because it means your model is wrong. It means you've missed something. That it's wrong in that direction is clearly a good thing but then the politicians will ask the scientists "okay with this data, what does that mean?" and the only honest answer they can give is "we don't know - we need to figure out what we got wrong and re-do the models so we need more time".

There's something wholly illogical about that, I agree, but if you're genuinely committed to "following the science" that's how it would work.

13 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Utterly wrong.  Cases aren't the worry now unless you are a zero covid nutter

What is the worry then? You can't have hospitalisations or deaths without cases first. So there will always be a link. If cases literally don't matter then nothing else matters either. Deaths won't grow exponentially on their own. 

12 hours ago, incident said:

There's a chance that they might get that bad? Of course - there's a chance of lots of different things. But decisions need to be taken on the balance of probabilities, not just on the off-chance that the worst case scenario comes along - and even those numbers taken in isolation don't show that the NHS is anywhere near at risk of being overwhelmed - they show less patients on ventilators than previously, despite there having been higher daily infections in the current wave.

The issue here is that by making the stages irreversible you do have to assume the reasonable worst case scenario happening. As you're committed to not going back a stage.

I'd also caution about the idea that hospitals are nowhere near at risk of being overwhelmed. I posted it the other day but worth repeating - there were 7846 excess deaths in hospitals in the first wave, there were 25215 excess deaths in private homes and 25833 excess deaths in care homes. That's like 50,000 extra people that should have been in hospital and were not. 

2 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I agree lockdown restrictions should be the absolute last resort and having to enact them especially in several occasions is a failure of leadership/government.

The irony, of course, being that they're massively more effective when used pre-emptively.

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49 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

He’s trying to bounce them into it. 

29 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I've had it and wasn't good but prefer that to blood clots.

Borderline anti-vaxx content here. You’re better than this.

 

The odds of getting a blood clot if you take the AZ is around 1-in-10,000. The odds of getting a blood clot if you catch covid is around 1-in-114. 
 

Literally the only reason why AZ is not recommended in under 40’s is because covid prevalence at the time was low and there’s little risk in waiting a few weeks to get an alternative vaccine.

 

That balance of risk is changing and the JCVI need to be looking into the possibility of reopening the AZ. 

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Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

He’s trying to bounce them into it. 

Borderline anti-vaxx content here. You’re better than this.

 

The odds of getting a blood clot if you take the AZ is around 1-in-10,000. The odds of getting a blood clot if you catch covid is around 1-in-114. 
 

Literally the only reason why AZ is not recommended in under 40’s is because covid prevalence at the time was low and there’s little risk in waiting a few weeks to get an alternative vaccine.

 

That balance of risk is changing and the JCVI need to be looking into the possibility of reopening the AZ. 

They should change advice and open it up asap if we have supply issues elsewhere. Just get it in peoples arms asap

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1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

A four week delay will wreck my daughters end of primary school celebration.  She will never have that again.  One small example of once in a lifetime events people are having taken away.

 

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Any delay will be curtains for my kid's end of school prom thing which was supposed to be on later this month. Sad really, but what can you do. They'll probably all go to the park have more fun anyway...

Not saying this to score points, but genuinely, to both of you, if it comes to that, get in touch with some of the other parents and make it happen over the school holidays. You can hire a venue and a DJ easily enough. It's not ideal but you don't have to give up on some these things if they're important. 

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5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

He’s trying to bounce them into it. 

Borderline anti-vaxx content here. You’re better than this.

 

The odds of getting a blood clot if you take the AZ is around 1-in-10,000. The odds of getting a blood clot if you catch covid is around 1-in-114. 
 

Literally the only reason why AZ is not recommended in under 40’s is because covid prevalence at the time was low and there’s little risk in waiting a few weeks to get an alternative vaccine.

 

That balance of risk is changing and the JCVI need to be looking into the possibility of reopening the AZ. 

That's not really true though.

For the 'odds' to be relevant they would need to take into consideration age, etc.

The reason AZ wasn't advised for under 30s was because their odds of dying from the vaccine were higher than the odds of dying from Covid at the time (ie, Odds of Catching * Odds of death for U30).

I agree it looks like it should be revisited now as the odds of dying have shortened (due to increased chance of catching it) but you can't simplify it as much as you have.

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38 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

I've had it and wasn't good but prefer that to blood clots.

You have more chance getting ran over by a bus on the way to get the vaccine than getting a blood clot. Best not leave the house if you want to play that chance game.... 😄 

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1 minute ago, northernringo said:

That's not really true though.

For the 'odds' to be relevant they would need to take into consideration age, etc.

The reason AZ wasn't advised for under 30s was because their odds of dying from the vaccine were higher than the odds of dying from Covid at the time (ie, Odds of Catching * Odds of death for U30).

I agree it looks like it should be revisited now as the odds of dying have shortened (due to increased chance of catching it) but you can't simplify it as much as you have.

Yeah exactly, u30’s are highly unlikely to die from covid. A month or so ago they were INCREDIBLY unlikely to die from covid, but that risk has risen slightly due to increased risk of catching it (and possibly higher severity of the Delta variant, though this is unconfirmed)

 

They’re also highly unlikely to die from the AZ vaccine.

 

It’s just a question of whether the new variant has increased that risk 

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I think it depends on a bit on what deliveries of Pfizer and Moderna we have coming. Both of those can also be done with shorter gaps - if supply is going to ramp up we could still get everyone double jabbed quicker with Pfizer/Moderna on a 4-week gap instead of AZ on 8-weeks.  

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1 minute ago, Kusy said:

image.png.4fe0167bed4a8f00622b9196cc054117.png

It would be useful to know more about those 12 who sadly died despite being fully vaccinated - i.e. were they very elderly, did they have pre-existing conditions etc.

Also would be interested to see a comparison with the fatality rates from the regular variant following 2nd vaccinations.

This doesn't look like good news, but without context it's hard to judge.

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1 minute ago, Kusy said:

image.png.4fe0167bed4a8f00622b9196cc054117.png

12 deaths out of 42 suggests fantastic efficacy. Pre-vaccinations, around 99% of the deaths would have been amongst people in the groups who’ve been offered two vaccines.


30 people who have not been fully vaccinated have died. In pre-vaccine times that would mean that 2,970 people in the vulnerable groups would have died (the 30 would make up 1% of total deaths). That suggests that having two doses is 99.6% effective against death from the Indian variant. 
 

Vaccines work 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻

 

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

12 out 42 who were fully vaccinated doesn't sound that good...

 

Just now, jimmillen said:

It would be useful to know more about those 12 who sadly died despite being fully vaccinated - i.e. were they very elderly, did they have pre-existing conditions etc.

Also would be interested to see a comparison with the fatality rates from the regular variant following 2nd vaccinations.

This doesn't look like good news, but without context it's hard to judge.

No, 12/42 is VERY good news.

 

In normal times the fully vaccinated would make up 99% of deaths. 

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

No, 12/42 is VERY good news.

 

In normal times the fully vaccinated would make up 99% of deaths. 

I'm not sure I'm following you here. Are you basing that on the assumption that those fully vaccinated were in JCVI groups 1-9, and those who aren't were not?

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Just now, jimmillen said:

I'm not sure I'm following you here. Are you basing that on the assumption that those fully vaccinated were in JCVI groups 1-9, and those who aren't were not?

Roughly, yes. I believe the rollout is at the point now where those in group 9 are getting their second dose. 

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2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

12 out 42 who were fully vaccinated doesn't sound that good...

 

2 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

It would be useful to know more about those 12 who sadly died despite being fully vaccinated - i.e. were they very elderly, did they have pre-existing conditions etc.

Also would be interested to see a comparison with the fatality rates from the regular variant following 2nd vaccinations.

This doesn't look like good news, but without context it's hard to judge.

 

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

12 deaths out of 42 suggests fantastic efficacy. Pre-vaccinations, around 99% of the deaths would have been amongst people in the groups who’ve been offered two vaccines.


30 people who have not been fully vaccinated have died. In pre-vaccine times that would mean that 2,970 people in the vulnerable groups would have died (the 30 would make up 1% of total deaths). That suggests that having two doses is 99.6% effective against death from the Indian variant. 
 

Vaccines work 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻

 

Indeed its exactly what we'd expect

And this sort of information coming out NOW not in the autumn is helpful to manage people's expectations on all this

I think many (not here, just in general) believe that nobody who has had two vaccines will die from this and that could lead to all sorts of panic later in the year when it's proven less than accurate. Seeing that sort of figure now could offset that reaction, and fits in with Chris whitty's "acceptable number of deaths" and "living with it like flu" comments. 

Watch the twitter panic at that figure over the next few hours though...

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4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Roughly, yes. I believe the rollout is at the point now where those in group 9 are getting their second dose. 

Gotcha. That's kind of what I was getting at saying to be meaningful, we need to know the demographics of those who have died after double vaccinations.

If indeed they were all in highly vulnerable groups, then I agree - it's not bad news at all. 

OTOH, if it includes young, previously healthy NHS workers or similar then it might be very bad.

Thankfully whilst we might not have the data, hopefully those making the decisions will do...!

Edited by jimmillen
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