When will this shit end?

[incident]

31 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

 

But you're obsessing over daily case numbers - and as yet despite hearing these dire warnings for over a month now about how it'll hit Hospitals soon, there's no indication that those numbers are translating into more than a small increase in Hospital admissions (Nationally at least still below the predicted best case scenario) - and certainly nowhere the "unsustainable pressure" that's supposed to be the benchmark.

Granted, I realise that it takes a couple weeks for a rise in cases to really show itself in Hospitalisations, but the few areas we do have high cases for more than a couple weeks (like Bolton), the Hospitalisations have risen slightly, hit a peak a fraction of the previous waves. The stories coming out of those areas are that the people being admitted are likely not vaccinated and also far less severe cases than the previous waves.

To be clear. here's 2 months worth of Patients in Hospital data for the North West region (lagging a couple days, but it's close enough to current):

And for Bolton specifically:

I'm not even being selective with the data here - if I set it to a longer date range then those recent/current peaks would soon be dwarfed - even that peak in Bolton is less than a third of the numbers they were getting in any of the three previous peaks (March 2020, November 2020, or January 2020), and still below what they had as recently as mid-March. For the North West overall the current number is less than a tenth of the January peak.

I've said it before but it frustrates me - we're doing fine. The increase in numbers are in line with prediction and for all the graphs plotting straight lines of growth in cases, I've yet to see anyone make a vaguely convincing case that it's going to hit the NHS hard.

This reminds me a bit the US election, when many statisticians predicted going in that Trump would likely be ahead in certain states on the night, but that Biden would overtake him once postal votes were counted - yet when that exact scenario played out as predicted, people went into panic mode as soon as Trump was ahead and thought that all was lost.

[philipsteak]

46 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

BBC News - Monkeypox: Two cases identified in north Wales
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57431322

We need to close the border with Wales before it's too late.

Do you mind hanging on a bit. I'm supposed to be going to see my mum next week. Not seen her in nearly 18 months

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, she bangs the drums said:

My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Winter should be fun then

[JoeyT]

Is this graph / detail (876 patients) correct?

It isn’t is it?

 

[jimmillen]

6 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Is this graph / detail (876 patients) correct?

It isn’t is it?

 

Well according to the government stats page it was 1,048 on the 8th - so yeah it’s wrong. 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

[jimmillen]

3 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Well according to the government stats page it was 1,048 on the 8th - so yeah it’s wrong. 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Hang on, no it’s not - just seen the very small print underneath, that figure is correct but it’s for England only. 

[efcfanwirral]

This really is a bit silly. IF it's right to worry about cases, it's very obvious what needs to happen in the NW

Edited June 10, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[incident]

7 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Is this graph / detail (876 patients) correct?

It isn’t is it?

 

Yes. It is. That's exactly why I keep getting annoyed - we're ahead of where we're supposed to be (which itself was considered overly optimistic) and suddenly that's a problem.

I've put together a graph showing the 2nd (Autumn), 3rd (January), and 4th (current) waves in Bolton, and how each of them have affected each of the key measurables -

I've multiplied Deaths by 20, and Hospital Admissions by 5, so that each of them make more of an identifiable imprint on the graph, but otherwise that's raw data for Bolton Council and Bolton NHS Trust. I didn't include Spring last year because Testing was barely a thing so it's not really possible to make a comparison.

I think it's pretty clear that so far the recent surge in cases is having nowhere near the impact that the previous ones did on either Hospitalisations or Deaths, and that despite lags if it was going to show up in anywhere near the same kind of numbers then it would have at least started by now. I really do think that Bolton should be considered a hugely positive indicator for the rest of the country and can't understand why people are panicking about the (fully expected) rise in cases.

I realise that we can't and shouldn't assume that what happened in Bolton will be exactly replicated elsewhere - but by the same token, so far there's nothing of substance to suggest that it'll be substantially worse elsewhere.

[jimmillen]

Regarding the comparison with the SPI-M models, I very strongly imagine there are more accurate and up to date models than those from 17th February!

They’ve got nearly 4 months extra real world data to work from plus IIRC the Delta variant wouldn’t have even been in the picture back then?

I’m only on my phone so not going to pretend I’m fully fact checking this, but If the Spectator are really presenting predictions from February in this light that is seriously shoddy journalism. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by jimmillen

[Ozanne]

Of course it’s right to worry about cases, they can lead to increased hospital admissions. I’ve said it before but we won’t be seeing the impact of this exponential rise in cases to hospitals for another week or so yet, even so hospital admissions are rising which isn’t a good sign.

I know people will say about Bolton so here’s the graph of patients in mechanical ventilators, it’s not good and only starting to drop now. We can stop more places from getting like that by delaying step 4, I really think we should. 

[incident]

 

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Of course it’s right to worry about cases, they can lead to increased hospital admissions. I’ve said it before but we won’t be seeing the impact of this exponential rise in cases to hospitals for another week or so yet, even so hospital admissions are rising which isn’t a good sign.

I know people will say about Bolton so here’s the graph of patients in mechanical ventilators, it’s not good and only starting to drop now. We can stop more places from getting like that by delaying step 4, I really think we should. 

Getting like that?

They've literally hit a recent peak of 12

Twelve. I'd happily wager that at least two thirds of those had refused a vaccine.

If that's the sort of number we're getting hung up over, then we really never will reopen.

Edited June 10, 2021 by incident

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Of course it’s right to worry about cases, they can lead to increased hospital admissions. I’ve said it before but we won’t be seeing the impact of this exponential rise in cases to hospitals for another week or so yet, even so hospital admissions are rising which isn’t a good sign.

I know people will say about Bolton so here’s the graph of patients in mechanical ventilators, it’s not good and only starting to drop now. We can stop more places from getting like that by delaying step 4, I really think we should. 

There's 10 people. While sad, the world is more than just covid. We willingly let 10s of thousands die from flu every year

[tigger123]

16 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Of course it’s right to worry about cases, they can lead to increased hospital admissions. I’ve said it before but we won’t be seeing the impact of this exponential rise in cases to hospitals for another week or so yet, even so hospital admissions are rising which isn’t a good sign.

I know people will say about Bolton so here’s the graph of patients in mechanical ventilators, it’s not good and only starting to drop now. We can stop more places from getting like that by delaying step 4, I really think we should. 

Wow, I was wondering if all perspective had been lost by some, this confirms it has been.

Bolton’s population in 2021 is 287,000 so this peak of 12  on ventilation is equivalent to 0.00004% of their population. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by tigger123

[jimmillen]

Hey @incident did you quote me then edit the quote out of your post? 

If not then even the forum itself is starting to act a bit weird on this thread. 😂 Got a notification I’d been quoted but nothing in your post…

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, incident said:

 

Getting like that?

They've literally hit a recent peak of 12

Twelve. I'd happily wager that at least two thirds of those had refused a vaccine.

If that's the sort of number we're getting hung up over, then we really never will reopen.

Yeah I agree with this...

 

Need some perspective.  It's dropping!

[incident]

1 minute ago, jimmillen said:

Hey @incident did you quote me then edit the quote out of your post? 

If not then even the forum itself is starting to act a bit weird on this thread. 😂 Got a notification I’d been quoted but nothing in your post…

Yeah I did by accident

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, jimmillen said:

Hey @incident did you quote me then edit the quote out of your post? 

If not then even the forum itself is starting to act a bit weird on this thread. 😂 Got a notification I’d been quoted but nothing in your post…

I do this to people all the time - save a quote, then don't reply to it but leave it in when I next do a reply 

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, incident said:

Yeah I did by accident

No worries. Glad it’s not the forum giving up on us after all. 

[fraybentos1]

If we lockdown now and keep locked down forever we could save tens of thousands of lives per year. Let’s do it...

Oh no that would be fucking mental and sometimes people die.. that’s life.

All perspective is gone if we are delaying things because a few unvaccinated people in a whole city are in intensive care 

[jimmillen]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Is it wrong not to care if people die ? I've never really given a shit

Errrrm… seriously? 

That certainly explains a lot. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

36 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Of course it’s right to worry about cases, they can lead to increased hospital admissions. I’ve said it before but we won’t be seeing the impact of this exponential rise in cases to hospitals for another week or so yet, even so hospital admissions are rising which isn’t a good sign.

I know people will say about Bolton so here’s the graph of patients in mechanical ventilators, it’s not good and only starting to drop now. We can stop more places from getting like that by delaying step 4, I really think we should. 

Cases used to translate to hospitalisations...

[Ozanne]

33 minutes ago, incident said:

 

Getting like that?

They've literally hit a recent peak of 12

Twelve. I'd happily wager that at least two thirds of those had refused a vaccine.

If that's the sort of number we're getting hung up over, then we really never will reopen.

I used Bolton to show that their rising hospital admissions did lead to comparable levels of patients on ventilators from other peaks. It wasn’t necessarily the specific number but highlighting the trend as others were quick to use Bolton as their example of something that might happen nationally. 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Cases used to translate to hospitalisations...

Surely they still do but at much lower levels ? 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Cases used to translate to hospitalisations...

I’ve gone through it many times in my other posts if you want to see why that isn’t necessarily a definite yet. 

[jimmillen]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Obvously I would care if I lost loved ones but I'm grown up enough to understand people die and we will lose around 10,000 to 20,000 to respiratory illnesses every year.  If this bothers you then your the problem and not the reality of life and death.

Yes, inevitably people will die, and yes any grown up discussion about public health will be about how many and how this is managed rather than trying to pretend it’s  zero. 

That is not at all the same fucking thing as saying you don’t give a shit if people die.

Either you have a serious and worrying lack of basic human empathy, or you were trying to say something provocative for reactions. I wonder which one it is.