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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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13 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Maybe just local restrictions instead. But no way the country is going to go along with a step backwards with the death rate as flat as this and the NHS bosses saying the service isn't stretched.

I agree it's politically untenable to go back - but the point is that there's enough in the case growth to make the next unlocking a bad idea, whether it's supposed to be one way or not.

Edited by stuartbert two hats
Added "supposed to be"
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4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think we are at that stage yet but a part of me does think we should move back to step 2. I still think we should stay with step 3 but it doesn’t look good the way the satay is going. 

What bits should we be watching though? If it's numbers of people infected (and that really isnt impacting in deaths or hospitalisations like it has) what would you consider a reasonable situation to be? 

Indeed if its deaths we know its pre loaded with being the start of a pandemic but if there was a,starting point from today would 54 per day be ok? (Thats 20,000 per year =bad flu season). 450 per day (cancer) etc.

I know the argument that we can prevent some deaths with lockdown but at what cost?

And yep i know its easy to sound glib but we are all going to die. Its the bits we do before that are important. 

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6 minutes ago, danmarks said:

And yep i know its easy to sound glib but we are all going to die. Its the bits we do before that are important. 

That’s blunt but it’s a fair point - the majority of those who are double jabbed will accept that this is as much protection as they are ever likely to get against the virus, and trying to get back to normality will need to be tested at some point. 

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1 minute ago, danmarks said:

What bits should we be watching though? If it's numbers of people infected (and that really isnt impacting in deaths or hospitalisations like it has) what would you consider a reasonable situation to be? 

Indeed if its deaths we know its pre loaded with being the start of a pandemic but if there was a,starting point from today would 54 per day be ok? (Thats 20,000 per year =bad flu season). 450 per day (cancer) etc.

I know the argument that we can prevent some deaths with lockdown but at what cost?

And yep i know its easy to sound glib but we are all going to die. Its the bits we do before that are important. 

I reckon we need to look at the whole picture, cases, hospital data, deaths, vaccinations etc not any individual metric. What we know is that since step 3 (indoor mixing) cases have started to rise exponentially which is also starting to now be seen through the very early increases in hospital data which I've been sharing for people to see. We know from before that it can lead to increased serious illness with patients needing ventilators (this also went up in Bolton recently) and we know what happens after that. Now the vaccination program might mean all of that doesn't happen but we just don't know and it's not a risk worth taking when we can wait a few more weeks and fully vaccinate many more people.

There might come a time where serious discussion needs to be had in government about whether we should even stay in step 3 or go back but as I say I don't think we are there just yet.

Personally I don't know what would be figures to aim for but I would suggest that with cases rising exponentially and still large portions of the population not vaccinated we should pause the roadmap to reassess measures especially when we are so close to finishing it. That's the main difference now, we are so close to the end, let's try to save as many as possible before we finish this.

(I don't mean to sound patronising, sorry if it comes across like that).

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3 minutes ago, st dan said:

That’s blunt but it’s a fair point - the majority of those who are double jabbed will accept that this is as much protection as they are ever likely to get against the virus, and trying to get back to normality will need to be tested at some point. 

Absolutely, if people are vaccinated to the max and they don’t ease restrictions then what was the point

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3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I reckon we need to look at the whole picture, cases, hospital data, deaths, vaccinations etc not any individual metric. What we know is that since step 3 (indoor mixing) cases have started to rise exponentially which is also starting to now be seen through the very early increases in hospital data which I've been sharing for people to see. We know from before that it can lead to increased serious illness with patients needing ventilators (this also went up in Bolton recently) and we know what happens after that. Now the vaccination program might mean all of that doesn't happen but we just don't know and it's not a risk worth taking when we can wait a few more weeks and fully vaccinate many more people.

There might come a time where serious discussion needs to be had in government about whether we should even stay in step 3 or go back but as I say I don't think we are there just yet.

Personally I don't know what would be figures to aim for but I would suggest that with cases rising exponentially and still large portions of the population not vaccinated we should pause the roadmap to reassess measures especially when we are so close to finishing it. That's the main difference now, we are so close to the end, let's try to save as many as possible before we finish this.

(I don't mean to sound patronising, sorry if it comes across like that).

Hah. No you dont sound patronising but thanks. I know the Internet really is awful for discussion. Even if its a quiet whisper of an idea that in a pub would be discussed or more likely laughed at and ignored- it can come across as - i think this therefore you are wrong.

I think im more relaxed about some of the numbers and restrictions than you- and others obviously. That's all.

But what really does bother me is the- data not dates bit- the numbers of cases doesnt necessarily impact on severe cases. Of course it all ties in but it doesnt mean that huge case numbers will necessarily lead to huge hospital/death numbers and people who suggest- a few more weeks /months (not you Ozanne) really isnt that long- its all relative i guess. That's what really worries me. Not june/make it july. Well august is safer etc.

Ok if you're hopefully gonna see another 40 or more June's not so ok if youre likely down to single figures and have all the protection you are ever likely to have.

Thanks for a considered reply tho!

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1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Yes it's also on the NHS England site at the following link - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

This shows total beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00), sorry if this isn't what you mean.

Screenshot 2021-06-10 at 16.53.32.png

That’s exactly it, thanks very much 

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1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Nah, the growth in some areas is absolutely huge, it spread from Bolton to the rest of Manchester, it's likely to spread to the rest of the country given how far we are from double dosing everyone.  There would still be massive questions about June 21st. As Fuzz says, the numbers are now suggesting tightening, not relaxation - irrespective of whether it's irreversible.

Absolutely huge is a stretch. Nothing suggests we should be tightening restrictions as there's no threat to the NHS 

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2 hours ago, incident said:

You should be able to move it to 8 weeks, subject to availability in your area - just go on the NHS booking site and take a look - though you'll have to first cancel your existing appointment if it's booked through them.

I booked just standard through nhs online when my age group came up.

 Is there a big risk it could end up not having any appointments and the delaying it further? It's AZ/ Oxford. 

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8 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

Absolutely huge is a stretch. Nothing suggests we should be tightening restrictions as there's no threat to the NHS 

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

0_Greater-Manchester-Wednesday-9-June-2021.jpg

 

0_Greater-Manchester-Friday-4th-June-2021.png

Edited by stuartbert two hats
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On 6/6/2021 at 9:58 AM, Copperface said:

So, when everyone is fully vaccinated then.

Vaccination is being opened up to the under 30s from this week, says the health secretary.

The government is getting "a step closer" to the point all adults are offered a vaccine, he says.

When everyone has had two doses, the wider population will have the protection we now see older adults have.

Then we can "get out of this" and "restore freedoms", he says.

My 24 year old kid got told it's over 25s only not everyone under 30.

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15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

My nephew and his girlfriend have got it, both mid 20s. She's quite ill apparently. Both not been jabbed yet.

What symptoms do they have?

I saw something earlier saying that symptoms of the delta variant tended to be less respiratory based and more headaches, sore throat etc.

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43 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

0_Greater-Manchester-Wednesday-9-June-2021.jpg

 

0_Greater-Manchester-Friday-4th-June-2021.png

Stockport has doubled because of the amount of Man City fans from this area who went to Portugal.....

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My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Edited by she bangs the drums
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48 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

In terms of the growth rate, it's been pretty big. I've added yesterday's and a few days ago, when in % terms, huge was no stretch. Isn't now really. 

Remember when it's exponential growth, the rate of increase is the thing to watch - absolute numbers can stay small for ages - until they're suddenly massive. 

Edit: Stockport doubled in five days.

0_Greater-Manchester-Wednesday-9-June-2021.jpg

Still not huge numbers currently although I see your point about the exponential growth. Still it's only cases. I'll take note if hospitalisation start doubling 

Edited by Rex2
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3 minutes ago, she bangs the drums said:

My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Woah. If he's 50 he probably had AZ.

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2 minutes ago, she bangs the drums said:

My work colleague with no health issues in has just recovered after 10 days of the Delta variant. He said it was the worst illness he has suffered in 50 years of life. He caught it via his wife who is a teacher and two kids impacted too. Spread to all of them within 24 hours.

Just to add both him and his wife were fully vaccinated about a month ago.

Thats the bit though. Are we going for no hospitalisations (which im hoping none of your mate's family ended with) but accept that it can be hideous but something you ultimately get over. 

I'm  old school. I much preferred its early stuff and had it last april (2020) . Wouldn't wish it on anyone .

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