When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

The following is from NHS England and is the total reported admissions to hospital and diagnoses in hospital. It's not ideal considering hospital admissions are from before cases really started to rise as they are now.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, danmarks said:

Its the potentially bit in there that's the issue.

Forecasts are always potentially  huge depending on the variables put in.

You could potentially win 5billion quid for a 50p bet if all the variables went your way and i could show all the workings out to prove it.

Most people wouldnt run off and jack their job in on that possible projection.

yes, of course...and there are a lot of unknowns and a lot of uncertainties....but if Johnson did go with a release of restrictions in just over a week, and then we started to see a big rise in cases and hospitalisations as forecast by these models...well, wouldn't look good. But yeah, they could very well be wrong, they could be very wrong. In long term you don't usually get too much criticism for being too cautious, but Johnson has got a lot of flack for acting late, being reckless etc etc.

[Fuzzy Afro]

I hope he doesn’t actually do this but strictly speaking the government should be looking at tightening rules not relaxing them. 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

 

 

pfizer really is the bollocks. Shame you need two jabs. And shame I didn't get it!

[Ozanne]

Just now, steviewevie said:

pfizer really is the bollocks. Shame you need two jabs. And shame I didn't get it!

The Pfizer club is great, we have cake and good wine 😉 

[MEGABOWL]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The following is from NHS England and is the total reported admissions to hospital and diagnoses in hospital. It's not ideal considering hospital admissions are from before cases really started to rise as they are now.

Does anywhere track the actual number of inpatients with Covid? Because while you’d think it’s a given that rising admissions greatly increases pressure on the NHS it may not be the case if they’re all, say, younger people who don’t stay long.

I assume the pressure is starting to build but it’s dangerous to assume.

[DeanoL]

Just now, steviewevie said:

yes, of course...and there are a lot of unknowns and a lot of uncertainties....but if Johnson did go with a release of restrictions in just over a week, and then we started to see a big rise in cases and hospitalisations as forecast by these models...well, wouldn't look good. But yeah, they could very well be wrong, they could be very wrong. In long term you don't usually get too much criticism for being too cautious, but Johnson has got a lot of flack for acting late, being reckless etc etc.

It wouldn't look good and it's not what all these struggling businesses asked for when they asked for the roadmap. They specifically said the biggest problem they have is the in/out of lockdown thing. Hence the desire that the changes made in the reopening be irreversible, and hence that being what the government committed to. "No earlier" than 21 June, but irreversible once it happened.

I don't think we'd even be questioning the 21 June changes if Johnson hadn't committed to not going back on them. Opening 21 June with the ability to close again in July if things do get bad would be fine. 

But that's not the path we've gone down. Wanting the changes to be irreversible means a much higher confidence level is needed that every change will be okay.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I hope he doesn’t actually do this but strictly speaking the government should be looking at tightening rules not relaxing them. 

Absolutely not.  That would be a political issue. And no one would listen to the no household mixing thing now

[tigger123]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

 

 

Anyone beginning to wonder whether given our vastly greater use of AZ than Pfizer/Moderna when compared with other countries like Israel, USA, EU etc, that this is gonna bite us on the arse and mean we get a far worse exit wave than those who have used MRNA vaccines for the majority of people? 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Does anywhere track the actual number of inpatients with Covid? Because while you’d think it’s a given that rising admissions greatly increases pressure on the NHS it may not be the case if they’re all, say, younger people who don’t stay long.

I assume the pressure is starting to build but it’s dangerous to assume.

Yes it's also on the NHS England site at the following link - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

This shows total beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00), sorry if this isn't what you mean.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Does anywhere track the actual number of inpatients with Covid? Because while you’d think it’s a given that rising admissions greatly increases pressure on the NHS it may not be the case if they’re all, say, younger people who don’t stay long.

I assume the pressure is starting to build but it’s dangerous to assume.

they're going to start doing this tracking.

[zahidf]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Absolutely not.  That would be a political issue. And no one would listen to the no household mixing thing now

I mean I completely agree that I don’t want them to tighten the rules, it would be very bad news for me personally because I’d need to go back to breaking them. Basically a lot of things I’ve been doing all along are legalised now.

 

just saying that if BristOliver’s projection is correct then the NHS will be overwhelmed unless rules are tightened or vaccines are majorly ramped up 

[jimmillen]

19 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Anyone beginning to wonder whether given our vastly greater use of AZ than Pfizer/Moderna when compared with other countries like Israel, USA, EU etc, that this is gonna bite us on the arse and mean we get a far worse exit wave than those who have used MRNA vaccines for the majority of people? 

Better to have used AZ than no vaccine at all - if we'd relied entirely on Pfizer/Moderna then we'd have a LOT fewer people vaccinated right now. But yeah, in an ideal world with plentiful supply it would be mRNA all the way.

 

[stuartbert two hats]

55 minutes ago, phimill said:

Not sure this has been thought about before.

Obviously the UK wanted to open vaccination up to all adults by 21.6.

Did they get stumped by how good the take up was going to be and therefore - might be at 80% of adults by 21/6 which they had possibly planned for.

But due to high take up at all levels means they haven't got "good" levels at all ages? They have excellent at high ages, but not enough round the younger bracket just yet

That's a good point, I wouldn't be surprised if a higher than expected vaccine uptake, whilst a good thing has meant that we're actually "behind" in terms of getting through the ages.

[stuartbert two hats]

29 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I don't think we'd even be questioning the 21 June changes if Johnson hadn't committed to not going back on them. 

Nah, the growth in some areas is absolutely huge, it spread from Bolton to the rest of Manchester, it's likely to spread to the rest of the country given how far we are from double dosing everyone.  There would still be massive questions about June 21st. As Fuzz says, the numbers are now suggesting tightening, not relaxation - irrespective of whether it's irreversible.

[BobWillis2]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

 at the same time hospitals were starting to get stretched again.

Are they? Where? 

[Kusy]

[st dan]

5 minutes ago, Kusy said:

It was inevitable wasn’t it, the age groups that will be doing the most socialising and mixing with the most people, whilst being completely unvaccinated. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by st dan

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

It was inevitable wasn’t it, the age groups that’s will be doing the most socialising and mixing with the most people, whilst being completely unvaccinated. 

Yup. Also the death rate is flat and hospital rate moving very slowly. 

[Kusy]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

It was inevitable wasn’t it, the age groups that’s will be doing the most socialising and mixing with the most people, whilst being completely unvaccinated. 

It is a sign that all is going good with vaccines. 

[zahidf]

14 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Nah, the growth in some areas is absolutely huge, it spread from Bolton to the rest of Manchester, it's likely to spread to the rest of the country given how far we are from double dosing everyone.  There would still be massive questions about June 21st. As Fuzz says, the numbers are now suggesting tightening, not relaxation - irrespective of whether it's irreversible.

Maybe just local restrictions instead. But no way the country is going to go along with a step backwards with the death rate as flat as this and the NHS bosses saying the service isn't stretched.

[st dan]

2 minutes ago, Kusy said:

It is a sign that all is going good with vaccines. 

It is - but at the same time I would guess that those under 30 are making up a very, very small percentages of the recent uptick in hospital admissions - so there is clearly the knock on effect that needs to be taken into consideration. 

[Ozanne]

30 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Nah, the growth in some areas is absolutely huge, it spread from Bolton to the rest of Manchester, it's likely to spread to the rest of the country given how far we are from double dosing everyone.  There would still be massive questions about June 21st. As Fuzz says, the numbers are now suggesting tightening, not relaxation - irrespective of whether it's irreversible.

I don’t think we are at that stage yet but a part of me does think we should move back to step 2. I still think we should stay with step 3 but it doesn’t look good the way the data is going. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by Ozanne

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think we are at that stage yet but a part of me does think we should move back to step 2. I still think we should stay with step 3 but it doesn’t look good the way the satay is going. 

So then another 10 weeks before step 4?

Nope. Not having it I'm afraid. That would be ridiculous.