When will this shit end?

[Avalon_Fields]

32 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

Humans are very bad at intuitively assessing systematic risk, that’s why people worry more about terrorism (for example) than road traffic accidents. High impact low probability events - things that are novel and unusual - tend to carry a disproportionate weight in people’s opinions  

The media then reinforce this by focusing more on those very unusual events - the clue’s in the word “news” after all…

I agree that we should be doing more about all those things you mention and a sense of proportion about it would be welcome. 

However there is one big difference with COVID… The number of patients with cancer, heart disease, obesity etc is almost certainly not going to grow exponentially. Any changes will be slow, linear and to some extent predictable based on leading indicators that public health folk study.

COVID - or any other rapidly transmissible disease - OTOH can go from nothing to thousands of cases in weeks.

So basically, it’s less about the absolute death numbers per se, and much more about preserving the integrity of the healthcare system. Not least so people with all those other conditions can get the treatment they need.

 

Sensible, fair observations. Although people with the other conditions manifestly haven’t been getting the required treatments in the main, but I do accept your points

[DeanoL]

15 hours ago, mike46 said:

 

I think this fixation on overall case numbers we have as a country is really bad. If we did this with any other novel virus, we’d never leave the house - if we could test for the flu, I guarantee every day during winter we’d see a few dozen thousand, but that doesn’t impact us.

 

The difference with flu is it remains static at a few thousand. COVID is massively more transmittable, so a few thousands becomes tens of thousands in a very short period of time.

14 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

You are a right bellend.  We hardly did any testing back in the early days l.  3600 cases in may 2020 would of been a hell of a lot more in reality 

This is true. Not that he's a bellend. But on the case numbers. Imperial did some modelling on this and while I can't find the dataset online, they've estimated that on 27 April the 4310 new cases were actually 23000.

12 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

How can this not result in unlocking? Surely its time 

That 65% reduction in hospitalisation seems low? If it's right, then that's the problem - we need to be looking at a 99%+ reduction in hospitalisations to deal with uncontrolled growth. But from what I've seen from the figures we are?

11 hours ago, BobWillis2 said:

One thing the government must show on Monday is what level of risk and death we have to accept going forward. 

We need something to base everything off, is opening on the 21st going to put us above that level? Is a 2 week delay going to keep us below that level? If not what is. 

I'm sure it's still based on not overwhelming the NHS - they wouldn't be considering this for any other reason. I think part of the issue is the data is all over the place. Cases should go up and hospitalisations should go up with them, but consistently. At a much lower percentage than pre-vax but there should be a relationship. Bolton is weird - that's not happening and there's no good explanation why. In other places the numbers are so small at the moment it's not enough data to properly extrapolate it up. Which is also a good problem to have. Signs are good and all that - but until the scientists have plausible explanations for why the data is doing what it is doing, they can't predict what hospitalisations will be with 10x or 100x the number of cases. 

I think they were expecting to find "okay, in the vaxxed population hospitalisation is 10x less than it was so we are fine as long as cases stay below this number - and with the current R rate they will" - but instead the data is just, well, weird. 

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Also worth noting is that we havent had any chatter from NHS front line staff about the NHS being close to being overwhelmed. Which we had at this stage last Dec

 

I did hear that hospitals are pretty busy with the backlog of non covid stuff.

[efcfanwirral]

52 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/vaccine-segregation-helping-live-music-return-us-not-britain/

The difference between  the USA and the UK is more stark by the day.  No masks inside theme parks and concerts all set to go.

Meanwhile we shit a brick over nothing.

I agree with Giddings in that article - just get tests involved for this summer and do it.

I'm still convinced it's political- mass gatherings "feel" dangerous to the older people and may damage their opinion polls. 

[fraybentos1]

29 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Yeah, they managed to get prevalence way down and vaccination levels way up before being hit by Delta. We'll get there too.

 

We surely can't be that far away. Just read that 70 percent of over20s in Israel have 2 doses and covid has absolutely collapsed. Obv we have let this new variant take hold which was dumb as fuck but even with that we will get there in the coming weeks considering our take up could be nearer 90% in adults.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I agree with Giddings in that article - just get tests involved for this summer and do it.

I'm still convinced it's political- mass gatherings "feel" dangerous to the older people and may damage their opinion polls. 

It’s entirely political.

 

An outdoor mass gathering of 50,000 without social distancing is probably safer than an indoor gathering of just a few hundred. Ventilation shits all over all other covid secure measures.

 

The only argument that holds any water for why outdoor mass gatherings can be banned is that the buses and trains travelling to and from the event are a covid risk, even then I’d say that’s an argument for pre-event testing and vaccine passports rather than banning them outright. 

[efcfanwirral]

D

 

[Kusy]

The EU is on the final straight to introduce a vaccination certificate and, for example, in Poland, the current indications are that it will be the only possible way to enter a concert in the near future.

Personally, I have no problem with the fact that only vaccinated people could participate in mass events. Although there are also voices that it is sanitary segregation (especially in social media) and the well-known Polish band Kult has issued a statement that they believe this is apartheid.

In the UK, vaccination passport plans have reportedly been abandoned. I wonder if this plan will come back?

[FakeEmpire]

Last year, when we weren't sure if/when we would get a vaccine, the PM was talking about how testing would be the key to getting mass events back (remember Operation Moonshot?)

That has not changed. With or without vaccines, testing is the key to getting these things going again so let's do it. If people are unhappy with so called 'vaccination passports' to access these events for now then tough.

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

We surely can't be that far away. Just read that 70 percent of over20s in Israel have 2 doses and covid has absolutely collapsed. Obv we have let this new variant take hold which was dumb as fuck but even with that we will get there in the coming weeks considering our take up could be nearer 90% in adults.

Anecdotally, 25+ yr olds are being booked in for September.

Edit: not that that means it will take us until September to get to a threshold where R dips below 1.

Edited June 10, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

It’s entirely political.

 

An outdoor mass gathering of 50,000 without social distancing is probably safer than an indoor gathering of just a few hundred. Ventilation shits all over all other covid secure measures.

 

The only argument that holds any water for why outdoor mass gatherings can be banned is that the buses and trains travelling to and from the event are a covid risk, even then I’d say that’s an argument for pre-event testing and vaccine passports rather than banning them outright. 

This is it- and that's only for the big big ones. An outdoor event of 5,000 people probably won't cause that much of an issue. For bigger ones staggered entry times (open up way earlier, no music til normal time but have bars open) 

With testing involved its surely safer than even the socially distanced pub next door if people are sitting inside. 

Even Wales are allowing events of a certain size 

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Kusy said:

The EU is on the final straight to introduce a vaccination certificate and, for example, in Poland, the current indications are that it will be the only possible way to enter a concert in the near future.

Personally, I have no problem with the fact that only vaccinated people could participate in mass events. Although there are also voices that it is sanitary segregation (especially in social media) and the well-known Polish band Kult has issued a statement that they believe this is apartheid.

In the UK, vaccination passport plans have reportedly been abandoned. I wonder if this plan will come back?

It 100% will. No testing option in EU? 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Anecdotally, 25+ yr olds are being booked in for September.

Seeing this too among my own mates, late August/early September for second doses, with first doses coming as early as this weekend.

 

I think the second doses will be brought forward if supply allows. As things stand we have JCVI groups 1-9 roughly fully vaccinated at this point. The coming weeks will see first doses for 25-29 and second doses for those in their 40’s, then towards the end of this month we’ll finish vaccinating the 18 and overs.

 

Then come early July we will run out of people to vaccinate, so at that point I think we will bring forward second doses starting with those in their 30’s. 
 

I can see everyone being offered a second dose by the end of August if supply allows. 

3 minutes ago, Kusy said:

The EU is on the final straight to introduce a vaccination certificate and, for example, in Poland, the current indications are that it will be the only possible way to enter a concert in the near future.

Personally, I have no problem with the fact that only vaccinated people could participate in mass events. Although there are also voices that it is sanitary segregation (especially in social media) and the well-known Polish band Kult has issued a statement that they believe this is apartheid.

In the UK, vaccination passport plans have reportedly been abandoned. I wonder if this plan will come back?

There should always be the option of taking a Lateral Flow Test as an alternative to being vaccinated but I have no problem with people having to prove their covid status to get in to events. 

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

D

 

Michie is an absolute communist moron. I hate her. 

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

D

 

See, give them an inch and they'll try to take several miles. 

[Kusy]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

It 100% will. No testing option in EU? 

Dunno about the rest UE, but Poland offers only entry for fully vaxed. 

Fest Festival (James bay, Nothing but thieves, Rag n Bone Man confirmed) said that they plan go to with this. 

[Toilet Duck]

7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

It 100% will. No testing option in EU? 

Yes, vaccination status, negative test or proof of recovery from PCR confirmed Covid in the last 9 months are the three options in the EU green pass.  

 

Edit: I should add that Ireland is a bit of an outlier on this as we currently won't accept rapid tests, but most other places will. They were rigorously tested here and the review group recommended their use, but our CMO is ideologically against them (he's being hauled before the Dáil to explain his position as most of the other people that gave evidence disagree with him...he basically thinks people will get a negative test and go nuts). Hopefully they will see sense and recognise their value, rather than insisting on PCR testing in the previous 72 hours.

 

edit again: in fact, the idealogical opposition to LFTs means that our pilot events (an outdoor concert in Iveagh Gardens, Leinster Rugby V Dragons and some GAA) all take place this month without prior testing (which is brave!). 

Edited June 10, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Anecdotally, 25+ yr olds are being booked in for September.

Edit: not that that means it will take us until September to get to a threshold where R dips below 1.

For their second doses aye?

My pals are getting there first doses for late June/ start of July and they're 25, just outside glasgow. That would make it nearly october for 2nd doses

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

For their second doses aye?

My pals are getting there first doses for late June/ start of July and they're 25, just outside glasgow. That would make it nearly october for 2nd doses

Aye

[Kusy]

Poland: https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/vaccinated-people-exempt-from-social-limits-says-health-minister-22431

Edited June 10, 2021 by Kusy

[Fuzzy Afro]

It would be a very bold move to use pure vaccine passports with no testing option. Doing that before all adults have been offered a vaccine is a non-starter as it’s discriminatory and would have lawsuits coming in left, right and centre, but even after all adults have been offered one I still see a testing option being offered.

 

And to be honest there’s no reason not to. Given that the vaccines are not 100% effective, you can probably have more confidence that an unvaccinated person with a negative LFT is covid-free compared to a fully vaccinated person without an LFT. 

[Kusy]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It would be a very bold move to use pure vaccine passports with no testing option. Doing that before all adults have been offered a vaccine is a non-starter as it’s discriminatory and would have lawsuits coming in left, right and centre, but even after all adults have been offered one I still see a testing option being offered.

 

And to be honest there’s no reason not to. Given that the vaccines are not 100% effective, you can probably have more confidence that an unvaccinated person with a negative LFT is covid-free compared to a fully vaccinated person without an LFT. 

yeah, there are talks with the gov to include test. Maybe they'll go with it from 1 July. 

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It would be a very bold move to use pure vaccine passports with no testing option. Doing that before all adults have been offered a vaccine is a non-starter as it’s discriminatory and would have lawsuits coming in left, right and centre, but even after all adults have been offered one I still see a testing option being offered.

 

And to be honest there’s no reason not to. Given that the vaccines are not 100% effective, you can probably have more confidence that an unvaccinated person with a negative LFT is covid-free compared to a fully vaccinated person without an LFT. 

Hope you're right! 

To be honest that last paragraph is one of my main reasons I'm so against the idea of vaccine only like new york - Yes it vastly reduces the chances but like you say its not 100%, so it feels more like aan extension of the psychological manipulation that gave us the fear campaign that currently has disproportionate amounts of 20somethings in fear for their lives. 

It feels like a compliance pass, and that can easily be extended to anything a future government wants- obesity as an example? Alcoholism? All put the NHS under strain

[zahidf]

4 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I can't watch right now.  What lifestyle changes does the crazy lady expect 

minor things like masks and changing cities and events so we arent as close to each other as we used to be

[balthazarstarbuck]

21 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

D

 

Not sure why they’re asking the guitarist from Jane’s Addiction tbh.

[efcfanwirral]

6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I can't watch right now.  What lifestyle changes does the crazy lady expect 

She's asked how long measurss should remain for and she said forever. To be fair to the host, she openly laughed at her (she seemed to think she was joking) but I'm not convinced she was joking at all...

Edited June 10, 2021 by efcfanwirral