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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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I'm genuinely confused now, so many people saying so many different things. One moment we're told vaccines are the way out, now we're basically being told they're not enough. One minute we're told cases matter, the next its only hospitalisations. There's so much uncertainty and everyone having opinions just makes it one huge ball of noise with no one truly knowing what to believe. I still think thing will be a lot better over the summer and we'll be able to have our freedoms, just need to keep on jabbing so I'm glad to see young people are going to help push us forward as well as everyone who's taken up the vaccine so far 

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13 minutes ago, mcshed said:

Re: Clackmannanshire it's worth noting that nobody actually lives there so with a population so small the rates per 100,000 will shoot up when there is any kind of outbreak.

I have family friends in the wee county and as far as I can tell they’re the only residents of Alloa who haven’t had covid yet

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8 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I'm genuinely confused now, so many people saying so many different things. One moment we're told vaccines are the way out, now we're basically being told they're not enough. One minute we're told cases matter, the next its only hospitalisations. There's so much uncertainty and everyone having opinions just makes it one huge ball of noise with no one truly knowing what to believe. I still think thing will be a lot better over the summer and we'll be able to have our freedoms, just need to keep on jabbing so I'm glad to see young people are going to help push us forward as well as everyone who's taken up the vaccine so far 

I know what you mean. We need as many as possible vaccinated to prevent cases getting too high...because if cases get really high then there could still be a lot of people requiring hospital and/or dying......due to being unvaccinated or vaccines not being 100% effective...so like you say just need to keep jabbing, and hopefully that will prevent a big spike in cases this summer or the remainder of the year...and then we'll probably have to jab some more later in the year...jabtastic.

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5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The vaccine rollout has been incredible and I'm glad people have taken it up but I'm worried if there was a big wave like this it would effectively undermine them and people wouldn't bother getting another one seeing as we were all told they were the best way out of it 

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7 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

Crikey…I watch a quick Seinfeld before bed and there’s a ton of questions when I pick the phone back up! 
 

so…gaps and efficacy. For the mRNA ones, optimum gap is about 4 weeks, after that the antibody levels start to dip a bit. There was a trade off in the UK between more jabs and dwindling protection from 4-12 weeks, but any protection was better than none and it doesn’t appear to harm long term immunity if dose 2 is given later (as you would expect, but nice to know for sure). Almost everywhere else is using these vaccines with a 3-4 week gap (we use Pfizer with 4, Moderna with 3 or 4 as it’s currently mostly being used in pregnant women, so it depends on when the clinics are scheduled)…I’d do the same thing in your current position now (since 2 dose > 1 dose for delta)…

For AZ, there was a screw up in the trial where some participants got a half dose for their first one by accident (manufacturing issue in Italy I believe)…but, both LD:SD and SD:SD participants got varying gaps between doses (for a variety of reasons). When the data was first unblinded, AZ stormed ahead and said they had ~70% efficacy and it could be as high as 90%+ (with a half dose). By the time the authorisation submission was made, Oxford had fully analysed the data and saw that it was the longer gap that improved efficacy rather than the different doses (as SD:SD participants with a longer gap had better antibody responses too). This was all fairly clearly explained in the submission for emergency use authorisation. The increase in antibody response starts to plateau at about 8 or 9 weeks and there isn’t much additional benefit after that. But, some participants had waited up to 12 weeks to get their second dose. So when prioritising 1st doses, JCVI figured they could safely go to 12 weeks and, again, like the extended gap with Pfizer, get some protection into more people (as well as improving the effectiveness of AZ)  Most other places using AZ have gone with a similar gap (I think I said at the time I’d probably go for 8 or 9). At about 6 weeks, the response is still not that far off, so where full vaccination was required quickly, this gap has been used (for example, many healthcare workers here that got AZ had a 6 week gap…and cases have fallen off a cliff among them). So, quickest route to full vaccination with the vaccines ye have is probably, Pfizer with a 4 week gap, Moderna with a 3 week gap, AZ with an 8 week gap (6 if you have to) and one shot of J&J (or any vaccine) in people with PCR confirmed Covid in the last 9 months (as we get more data, that could extend out to ever having PCR confirmed Covid)…

As for the “if we were still only dealing with the Kent variant, R would be below 1” thing, it’s very hard to untangle that…delta is outcompeting it, so of course alpha cases are dropping. How much of that is vaccination or competition with a fitter variant is incredibly hard to model. I dare say a beta or gamma outbreak in a vaccinated population would outcompete delta (but luckily those outbreaks had to compete with alpha in a mostly immunologically naive population…would be a different proposition now and they are fitter variants in a vaccinated cohort due to superior vaccine escape compared to delta or alpha)...

 

edit: sorry, forgot to tag @Fuzzy Afro and @stuartbert two hats

 

Really inciteful this. thanks.

Given what you said then, in your opinion, do you think that there could be any further issues / negative effect given we're going 8-12 weeks across all the second jabs in the UK?

 

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4 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

The vaccine rollout has been incredible and I'm glad people have taken it up but I'm worried if there was a big wave like this it would effectively undermine them and people wouldn't bother getting another one seeing as we were all told they were the best way out of it 

yeah...definitely....they need to make it very clear why we're getting a delay....just that not everyone vaccinated yet.

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12 minutes ago, Stretlow said:

Really inciteful this. thanks.

Given what you said then, in your opinion, do you think that there could be any further issues / negative effect given we're going 8-12 weeks across all the second jabs in the UK?

 

Howdy, in terms of how good your immunity is after the second dose, no there shouldn't be any issue if the gap between prime and boost is longer. Though now that dose 2 is important, you can shorten that to 8 weeks for AZ and 3-4 weeks for the mRNA ones and get as many people to full vaccination as quickly as you can (assuming you have the supply). 

Edited by Toilet Duck
wrote dose instead of gap! Doh!
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I’d like to see a sense of perspective, let’s have daily figures on all preventable deaths. So this would include many cancers, deaths due to alcohol, drugs, smoking, obesity, poor lifestyles, road and travel, suicide, the flu, accidents, heart disease, and then what are we really doing about any of these? They vastly outnumber Covid deaths. Why aren’t we obsessed with these too? As the flu alone causes up to 20,000 deaths every winter, and due to lockdown last winter the flu was greatly reduced, what’s the argument for not locking down every winter? Why don’t those lives mean as much?

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6 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I’d like to see a sense of perspective, let’s have daily figures on all preventable deaths. So this would include many cancers, deaths due to alcohol, drugs, smoking, obesity, poor lifestyles, road and travel, suicide, the flu, accidents, heart disease, and then what are we really doing about any of these? They vastly outnumber Covid deaths. Why aren’t we obsessed with these too? As the flu alone causes up to 20,000 deaths every winter, and due to lockdown last winter the flu was greatly reduced, what’s the argument for not locking down every winter? Why don’t those lives mean as much?

we don't lock down every winter because our health services can just about manage a bad flu outbreak...covid more infectious and deadly than flu, so unless we drastically expand our health services we have to have lockdown restrictions.

Anyway, vaccines.

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5 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

I’d like to see a sense of perspective, let’s have daily figures on all preventable deaths. So this would include many cancers, deaths due to alcohol, drugs, smoking, obesity, poor lifestyles, road and travel, suicide, the flu, accidents, heart disease, and then what are we really doing about any of these? They vastly outnumber Covid deaths. Why aren’t we obsessed with these too? As the flu alone causes up to 20,000 deaths every winter, and due to lockdown last winter the flu was greatly reduced, what’s the argument for not locking down every winter? Why don’t those lives mean as much?

we are obsessed with this because it is current and we now have very different forms of media .... this will become less so when another story comes along .... we are 'used" to the flu ... its not a new thing ... although many winters we get newspaper headlines about it because it is a story at the moment .... the pandemic is very fresh and very raw and still current because of the numbers lost to it .... it will become less so but that will take time and other news 

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22 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy, in terms of how good your immunity is after the second dose, no there shouldn't be any issue if the gap between prime and boost is longer. Though now that dose 2 is important, you can shorten that to 8 weeks for AZ and 3-4 weeks for the mRNA ones and get as many people to full vaccination as quickly as you can (assuming you have the supply). 

Good to hear, thanks for this.

 

I had 1 Pfizer on 11th may so 8 weeks is 6th July but i'm not booked in yet.. need to sort it

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1 hour ago, Chapple12345 said:

I'm genuinely confused now, so many people saying so many different things. One moment we're told vaccines are the way out, now we're basically being told they're not enough. One minute we're told cases matter, the next its only hospitalisations. There's so much uncertainty and everyone having opinions just makes it one huge ball of noise with no one truly knowing what to believe. I still think thing will be a lot better over the summer and we'll be able to have our freedoms, just need to keep on jabbing so I'm glad to see young people are going to help push us forward as well as everyone who's taken up the vaccine so far 

Its really not that complicated.

The viruses is moving quickly, due to a new variant and not enough people have been vaccinated....

Vaccines are the way out, but they need more time.

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1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

The most likely outcome for the future is the people who would of died from flu where more than likely die from covid or flu.  It's unlikely covid will add additional deaths and hospitalisations in the future.  

id say the numbers will increase covid seems to hit some that flu isnt getting but with some overlap .... maybe an additional 50% more .... and this will slowly decrease 20,000 flu an additional 10,000 covid  in a bad year ..... although sadly for a few years covid may already have killed quite a few slightly before their time would normally have been up 

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1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

I've pretty much resigned myself to life never returning to what it was after a long think about it all.

Convince me otherwise.

I think it's a tad melodromatic.

But there's a line of thought anyway that says humans are in for a rough few decades anyway, so quality of life will be shifting quite rapidly for everyone - pandemic or otherwise.

Personally, I'm of the opinion we are at the early stages of humanities collapse 🙂 

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Just now, Barry Fish said:

That's only true if the vaccines didn't work but they do 

we have flu jabs ... sadly people still die  .... luckily most will have had the covid jab this year for some it wont work and some wont take it  , people will still die from covid alone ... its not going anywhere ... neither is flu maybe that vaccine can be made better so the overall numbers wont increase .... 

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18 minutes ago, Stretlow said:

Good to hear, thanks for this.

 

I had 1 Pfizer on 11th may so 8 weeks is 6th July but i'm not booked in yet.. need to sort it

Can everyone in the UK do this now? My partner is booked in for 11 weeks and when he tried to change the date the other day it only gave him options in that timeframe. He is under 40.

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