When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

 

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Im not liking the numbers today... was hoping it had plateaued after a couple of days dropping/levelling. Slight increase but an increase non the less. 

The hospital figures are interesting, pretty level and even down in Bolton. Im hoping the rise in cases is largely part of the expected rise we were going to get post May 17th. Would like to see the chart plotted on current cases against the models we had for unlocking. 

[Toilet Duck]

12 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

99% of deaths are in groups 1 -9 which are double dosed - if you are young you are not at risk ( Number of people below 30  who have died from COVID is tiny- less than 0.02%)

 

I answered this the last time you posted the question, but let's try again (it's more or less what @balthazarstarbuck is getting at...a small % of a big number is still a big number)...I'll preface this by saying that I think you guys are almost there (as I did previously) and this will end sooner rather than later. Anyway, there's two trends that are too early to call...the rising hospital cases (which if they follow the Bolton pattern may not be that big a deal, but it can't be called yet...the optimist in me hopes that the current trends continue and we see shorter stays for low risk individuals (we are certainly seeing this in our hospital too))...and deaths (which is your main point) and more specifically the level of protection afforded by vaccination to those that made up the bulk of deaths in previous waves when NPI was the only mitigation/suppression measure available...

...so far, last time I checked, 17 people had died following infection with the delta variant (this was in the last PHE update, maybe there's been another one since?, or we'll get more clarity in the next one...more deaths are being reported daily, but I haven't seen them broken down in detail yet by variant or vaccination status). Not a big number, but the case load isn't that big either (yet?). Of the 17 people that died, 2 were fully vaccinated. As I said the last time, there's nowhere near enough data to extrapolate that out and say that around 12% of deaths will be double vaccinated individuals, but in real world use, none of the vaccines have demonstrated 100% efficacy against the very worst outcomes (they did in the trials, but trials carefully select participants). It's north of 90% so far and likely to stay there (and will only get better if outbreaks are kept under control). The best way to shore up that protection is not by having the virus rip through a low risk population which would keep circulating levels of the virus high and increase the chances of double vaccinated individuals becoming infected (this is essentially what was argued for in the Great Barrington Declaration, only without a vaccine...which changes things significantly, but not entirely). This doesn't even factor in unvaccinated individuals (for whatever reason). 

I have speculated before that natural infection plus vaccination in low risk individuals would likely generate better, broader immunity, but it's a risky proposition. If the choice is risk it and see what happens, or hold off for a few short weeks more and finish the job properly, then I know which path I'd take (of course, the critical mass required might already have been hit, but you need to watch the hospital and death metrics a bit longer to get a clearer picture). Opening up with all the shackles off only to have to shut down again in September is in nobody's interest. At the moment, it looks likely that once everyone is vaccinated, the CFR in the highest risk individuals is reduced about 10 fold, which would bring it back towards that of seasonal flu (though in men over 70 with certain underlying conditions, it would still be a significantly greater risk) and that's what we have to decide to live with, but I couldn't say for sure that you are at that stage just yet...close, but not yet. However, keeping cases from spiralling augments that protection (and more vaccinations will help that). At the rate you guys are going, you are still hitting 3-4m+ jabs a week mostly, so a few extra weeks can put a big dent in what the virus can do when you finally open up for good. Again, none of this is about personal risk, it's about societal risk (as it always has been). 

[steviewevie]

52 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I never understood why some people claimed the youngest wouldn’t go for it. Regardless it’s great to see a high amount of bookings. 

I guess because young people don't tend to get seriously ill from covid and might have thought wasn't worth the risk taking a brand new vaccine for.

[MrBarry465]

8 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I answered this the last time you posted the question, but let's try again (it's more or less what @balthazarstarbuck is getting at...a small % of a big number is still a big number)...I'll preface this by saying that I think you guys are almost there (as I did previously) and this will end sooner rather than later. Anyway, there's two trends that are too early to call...the rising hospital cases (which if they follow the Bolton pattern may not be that big a deal, but it can't be called yet...the optimist in me hopes that the current trends continue and we see shorter stays for low risk individuals (we are certainly seeing this in our hospital too))...and deaths (which is your main point) and more specifically the level of protection afforded by vaccination to those that made up the bulk of deaths in previous waves when NPI was the only mitigation/suppression measure available...

...so far, last time I checked, 17 people had died following infection with the delta variant (this was in the last PHE update, maybe there's been another one since?, or we'll get more clarity in the next one...more deaths are being reported daily, but I haven't seen them broken down in detail yet by variant or vaccination status). Not a big number, but the case load isn't that big either (yet?). Of the 17 people that died, 2 were fully vaccinated. As I said the last time, there's nowhere near enough data to extrapolate that out and say that around 12% of deaths will be double vaccinated individuals, but in real world use, none of the vaccines have demonstrated 100% efficacy against the very worst outcomes (they did in the trials, but trials carefully select participants). It's north of 90% so far and likely to stay there (and will only get better if outbreaks are kept under control). The best way to shore up that protection is not by having the virus rip through a low risk population which would keep circulating levels of the virus high and increase the chances of double vaccinated individuals becoming infected (this is essentially what was argued for in the Great Barrington Declaration, only without a vaccine...which changes things significantly, but not entirely). This doesn't even factor in unvaccinated individuals (for whatever reason). 

I have speculated before that natural infection plus vaccination in low risk individuals would likely generate better, broader immunity, but it's a risky proposition. If the choice is risk it and see what happens, or hold off for a few short weeks more and finish the job properly, then I know which path I'd take (of course, the critical mass required might already have been hit, but you need to watch the hospital and death metrics a bit longer to get a clearer picture). Opening up with all the shackles off only to have to shut down again in September is in nobody's interest. At the moment, it looks likely that once everyone is vaccinated, the CFR in the highest risk individuals is reduced about 10 fold, which would bring it back towards that of seasonal flu (though in men over 70 with certain underlying conditions, it would still be a significantly greater risk) and that's what we have to decide to live with, but I couldn't say for sure that you are at that stage just yet...close, but not yet. However, keeping cases from spiralling augments that protection (and more vaccinations will help that). At the rate you guys are going, you are still hitting 3-4m+ jabs a week mostly, so a few extra weeks can put a big dent in what the virus can do when you finally open up for good. Again, none of this is about personal risk, it's about societal risk (as it always has been). 

Great post!

[MrBarry465]

Just now, steviewevie said:

I guess because young people don't tend to get seriously ill from covid and might have thought wasn't worth the risk taking a brand new vaccine for.

Surprise surprise, people don't want to catch a novel virus and are willing to get protection against it.....

Who'd have thunk it?

[Crazyfool01]

bollocks im all out thanks for they insight as ever @Toilet Duck

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Surprise surprise, people don't want to catch a novel virus and are willing to get protection against it.....

Who'd have thunk it?

yeah, but to be fair it was a vaccine that was developed pretty quickly...there was quite a bit of sceptism in the early days...that seems to have mostly evaporated though.

[Toilet Duck]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

bollocks im all out thanks for they insight as ever @Toilet Duck

No worries! (I could be wrong of course!...it's not an easy call to make). 

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I answered this the last time you posted the question, but let's try again (it's more or less what @balthazarstarbuck is getting at...a small % of a big number is still a big number)...I'll preface this by saying that I think you guys are almost there (as I did previously) and this will end sooner rather than later. Anyway, there's two trends that are too early to call...the rising hospital cases (which if they follow the Bolton pattern may not be that big a deal, but it can't be called yet...the optimist in me hopes that the current trends continue and we see shorter stays for low risk individuals (we are certainly seeing this in our hospital too))...and deaths (which is your main point) and more specifically the level of protection afforded by vaccination to those that made up the bulk of deaths in previous waves when NPI was the only mitigation/suppression measure available...

...so far, last time I checked, 17 people had died following infection with the delta variant (this was in the last PHE update, maybe there's been another one since?, or we'll get more clarity in the next one...more deaths are being reported daily, but I haven't seen them broken down in detail yet by variant or vaccination status). Not a big number, but the case load isn't that big either (yet?). Of the 17 people that died, 2 were fully vaccinated. As I said the last time, there's nowhere near enough data to extrapolate that out and say that around 12% of deaths will be double vaccinated individuals, but in real world use, none of the vaccines have demonstrated 100% efficacy against the very worst outcomes (they did in the trials, but trials carefully select participants). It's north of 90% so far and likely to stay there (and will only get better if outbreaks are kept under control). The best way to shore up that protection is not by having the virus rip through a low risk population which would keep circulating levels of the virus high and increase the chances of double vaccinated individuals becoming infected (this is essentially what was argued for in the Great Barrington Declaration, only without a vaccine...which changes things significantly, but not entirely). This doesn't even factor in unvaccinated individuals (for whatever reason). 

I have speculated before that natural infection plus vaccination in low risk individuals would likely generate better, broader immunity, but it's a risky proposition. If the choice is risk it and see what happens, or hold off for a few short weeks more and finish the job properly, then I know which path I'd take (of course, the critical mass required might already have been hit, but you need to watch the hospital and death metrics a bit longer to get a clearer picture). Opening up with all the shackles off only to have to shut down again in September is in nobody's interest. At the moment, it looks likely that once everyone is vaccinated, the CFR in the highest risk individuals is reduced about 10 fold, which would bring it back towards that of seasonal flu (though in men over 70 with certain underlying conditions, it would still be a significantly greater risk) and that's what we have to decide to live with, but I couldn't say for sure that you are at that stage just yet...close, but not yet. However, keeping cases from spiralling augments that protection (and more vaccinations will help that). At the rate you guys are going, you are still hitting 3-4m+ jabs a week mostly, so a few extra weeks can put a big dent in what the virus can do when you finally open up for good. Again, none of this is about personal risk, it's about societal risk (as it always has been). 

Took the words right out of my mouth.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

No worries! (I could be wrong of course!...it's not an easy call to make). 

Is there much of the delta variant in Ireland?

(I may have asked this before, can't remember).

[MrBarry465]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, but to be fair it was a vaccine that was developed pretty quickly...there was quite a bit of sceptism in the early days...that seems to have mostly evaporated though.

When it comes to taking a new vaccine vs catching a new virus (which can be a total crapshoot in terms of severity) - I take the vaccine everytime.

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Is there much of the delta variant in Ireland?

(I may have asked this before, can't remember).

Not a lot at the moment (more cases up north as far as I know). There were a few caught in hotel quarantine, but not much in the community. But, we only opened pubs/restaurants etc on Monday (for outdoor table service only), so we aren't as open as you guys at the moment...case numbers are holding firm between 300-500 a day and hospital numbers continue to fall (we are down to about 60 odd people in hospital at the moment, from around 2500 back in January). We won't be taking the next step in opening up til a much higher % of the population are double jabbed though (60%, or everybody over 45 basically), but since Pfizer is the most widely used vaccine here, we'll get there quicker (4 week regimen) so should be at that point around the end of July (hopefully). Things are pretty calm though and most people seem happy enough with the progress (and we love to moan about stuff). There's a vocal minority that think we should open fully, but most opinion polls show very little support for that yet and everybody is just waiting patiently for their vaccine (last opinion poll on that showed only 4% of people that say they aren't going to take it). Since they moved past the vulnerable people and started using the mass vax hubs, they've been piling through the age groups (about the same rate as you guys doing 650,000 a day). 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

When it comes to taking a new vaccine vs catching a new virus (which can be a total crapshoot in terms of severity) - I take the vaccine everytime.

yeah, me too....but what I'm saying there were some, maybe me included, who thought young people would be less bothered about taking a brand new vaccine for a disease that isn't too bad for them.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Vaccination update:

Encouragingly high weekly low point.  Surge next coming in the next few days?

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Not a lot at the moment (more cases up north as far as I know). There were a few caught in hotel quarantine, but not much in the community. But, we only opened pubs/restaurants etc on Monday (for outdoor table service only), so we aren't as open as you guys at the moment...case numbers are holding firm between 300-500 a day and hospital numbers continue to fall (we are down to about 60 odd people in hospital at the moment, from around 2500 back in January). We won't be taking the next step in opening up til a much higher % of the population are double jabbed though (60%, or everybody over 45 basically), but since Pfizer is the most widely used vaccine here, we'll get there quicker (4 week regimen) so should be at that point around the end of July (hopefully). Things are pretty calm though and most people seem happy enough with the progress (and we love to moan about stuff). There's a vocal minority that think we should open fully, but most opinion polls show very little support for that yet and everybody is just waiting patiently for their vaccine (last opinion poll on that showed only 4% of people that say they aren't going to take it). Since they moved past the vulnerable people and started using the mass vax hubs, they've been piling through the age groups (about the same rate as you guys doing 650,000 a day). 

are there calls to restrict people coming in from NI at all?! Are there any restrictions?

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

are there calls to restrict people coming in from NI at all?! Are there any restrictions?

No, quite the opposite in fact! (NI have asked fir restrictions on people coming up north!)…obviously restricting movement across the border in either direction is a bit of a touchy subject, so there hasn’t been any restrictions imposed (though there was a de facto ban on it as inter county travel was restricted until last month)…

[DeanoL]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, me too....but what I'm saying there were some, maybe me included, who thought young people would be less bothered about taking a brand new vaccine for a disease that isn't too bad for them.

I think the flip are young people are generally more trusting of medicine. And as much as it doesn't kill many of them, most young people will have had some contact with someone who had it bad and given the vaccines have now been used in millions of people with no major side effects (except AZ) then there's no reason not to take it.

Or put it another way: who here wouldn't take an "experimental" medicine that had been used on a few million people with no major impacts already, and it guaranteed you wouldn't have a cold the last week in June?

[Radiochicken]

56 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s not really context free, there’s no guarantee what happened in Bolton will happen now we are into step 3. Cases are currently rising dramatically is all we can say currently and it’s starting to filter through to hospital admissions. This guy was very accurate back in the Autumn so it’s concerning to see him flag up similar concerns now. 

Nah wasn’t having a pop at the guy or anything! Just when interpreting that graph, knowing it isn’t a ‘prediction’ or ‘forecast’ or ‘model’ and it’s just an extrapolation of todays current trend ad-infinitum. Still useful, and hoping it won’t go that way!

[Ozanne]

Just now, Radiochicken said:

Nah wasn’t having a pop at the guy or anything! Just when interpreting that graph, knowing it isn’t a ‘prediction’ or ‘forecast’ or ‘model’ and it’s just an extrapolation of todays current trend ad-infinitum. Still useful, and hoping it won’t go that way!

I know, sorry if I came across as defensive!

Lets hope it randomly falls to bottom of the graph!

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

I think the flip are young people are generally more trusting of medicine. And as much as it doesn't kill many of them, most young people will have had some contact with someone who had it bad and given the vaccines have now been used in millions of people with no major side effects (except AZ) then there's no reason not to take it.

Or put it another way: who here wouldn't take an "experimental" medicine that had been used on a few million people with no major impacts already, and it guaranteed you wouldn't have a cold the last week in June?

yeah...old people were the guinea pigs.

[northernringo]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

are there calls to restrict people coming in from NI at all?! Are there any restrictions?

I think a bigger issue seems to be the opposite although hopefully as ROI opens up that isn't as common place.

I went on a night out about a month ago (outdoor drinking at a bar) and it was filled with people from ROI. Used to see plenty of Irish Registrations up in the Mourne mountains too.

NI's case numbers are rising but are still only around 30 per 100,000. Not sure what ROI's is but can't imagine it is much better (if better).

[steviewevie]

 

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think the flip are young people are generally more trusting of medicine. And as much as it doesn't kill many of them, most young people will have had some contact with someone who had it bad and given the vaccines have now been used in millions of people with no major side effects (except AZ) then there's no reason not to take it.

Or put it another way: who here wouldn't take an "experimental" medicine that had been used on a few million people with no major impacts already, and it guaranteed you wouldn't have a cold the last week in June?

I'm taking it to hopefully get my life back, but with the full expectation that won't happen until 2022. At least I won't feel as betrayed as everyon else when theyve taken it and things don't open up 

I don't trust it really but I've got no choice! 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, northernringo said:

I think a bigger issue seems to be the opposite although hopefully as ROI opens up that isn't as common place.

I went on a night out about a month ago (outdoor drinking at a bar) and it was filled with people from ROI. Used to see plenty of Irish Registrations up in the Mourne mountains too.

NI's case numbers are rising but are still only around 30 per 100,000. Not sure what ROI's is but can't imagine it is much better (if better).

You have the Indian/delta variant spreading in NI like it is in parts of Britain?