When will this shit end?

[DeanoL]

13 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

If it it takes 3 weeks from dose 1 to have protection then have we not already passed the window where vaccines done will have an impact directly before June 21st?

Yup, but we're not expecting an immediate problem on June 21st  - even if we go ahead and open it's probably going to be another 4-8 weeks until we actually have issues with hospital numbers.

But because this reopening is irreversible we can't just open up and go back into lockdown in August if needed. But if we're confident we'll get enough people jabbed by then we wouldn't need to extend. 

2 hours ago, zahidf said:

Mirror’s front page: Bride and Doom.

Remember, brides were promised a decision on 24 May. The government temporised. Now many have had to pay their final nonrefundable deposits and face cancelling their weddings with just days’ notice without any chance of rebooking this summer because everywhere is block booked. Thousands potentially affected.

WhaTS ThE HArm In A FeW WeeKS DElAy

My friend went to a wedding the other weekend. They're already allowed.

 

[philipsteak]

5 hours ago, Suprefan said:

 

Being magnetized would be quite a handy side effect. Save me losing my keys all the time

[DeanoL]

 

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

So...to reach herd immunity with a more transmissable variant we need a higher percentage of population to have immunity, right?

Or is herd immunity impossible as some were saying on here not long ago?

My understanding is herd immunity is about driving the R rate below 1 even when everything is opened. The vaccines do that by preventing transmission and preventing you catching it. So it also matters how effective the vaccines are against the variants. So if you had a natural R rate of 2, a 100% effective vaccine given to 50% of the population would reduce that to 1. A few more people and you start to get herd immunity. Whereas with a natural R rate of 7, the same vaccine would only reduce it to 3.5, so you wouldn't get anywhere near until you vaccinated around 86% of the population. I think this is why we're now talking about vaccinating kids - the vaccines aren't 100% effective and the R numbers of the new variants are very high.

But you do also need to factor in natural immunity - but part of the issue is we don't even really know how that works - we've got studies showing the level of protection various vaccines give from the new variant but we don't know what being infected with an older variant does, or how it effects transmission either.

The counter-point is that we don't necessarily need herd immunity, we can just let the virus pass through the existing unvaccinated population that are mostly non-vulnerable anyway - as long as it doesn't pass through so quickly that it causes hospital capacity issues.

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, philipsteak said:

Being magnetized would be quite a handy side effect. Save me losing my keys all the time

I’d certainly struggle with being magnetised during an MRI. The reverse polarity effect would probably send me shooting out of the tube like a cannon. 

[philipsteak]

2 hours ago, jimmillen said:

*waves from the North West* 🙂

There’s very considerable local variation depending on where exactly you’re heading. Unless you’re unlucky and your family live in one of the worst hotspots then probably no more risk of catching or spreading it than if you were out & about in your home area. 

The highest risk is probably on the train & passing through stations. But assuming all masked up and distance as much as possible then it’s an acceptable risk IMO.

I’ve got similar concerns myself, mate’s birthday in London early July - chances are I will go but there’s enough going on to make you think twice for sure. 

We've just had our first cancellation from Lancashire citing the travel restrictions as a reason. Reading between the lines I don't think that was the actual reason, they were just using that to get 100% refund (covid guarantee) rather than the usual 90%. Not an issue though, it's so busy that within about 5 minutes of me canceling it a new booking had come in replacing it. 

[philipsteak]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I’d certainly struggle with being magnetised during an MRI. The reverse polarity effect would probably send me shooting out of the tube like a cannon. 

As long as they pointed you out the window and put down crash mats

[DeanoL]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

How many under 40’s with no underlying health problems have died from covid? 

I've had a look and the NHS don't collect that data. The key metric would be under 40s with no *known* underlying health problems though. And they'd have to be health problems that qualified you for an early jab

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I've had a look and the NHS don't collect that data. The key metric would be under 40s with no *known* underlying health problems though. And they'd have to be health problems that qualified you for an early jab

Ok I’ll rephrase my question.

 

How many people outside JCVI groups 1-10 have died from covid? 

[Fuzzy Afro]

12 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yup, but we're not expecting an immediate problem on June 21st  - even if we go ahead and open it's probably going to be another 4-8 weeks until we actually have issues with hospital numbers.

But because this reopening is irreversible we can't just open up and go back into lockdown in August if needed. But if we're confident we'll get enough people jabbed by then we wouldn't need to extend. 

My friend went to a wedding the other weekend. They're already allowed.

 

Yes, but with a 30 people limit and “covid secure”. I assume most people who want to get married this summer will have more than 30 guests and don’t want it to be covid secure 

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Ok I’ll rephrase my question.

 

How many people outside JCVI groups 1-10 have died from covid? 

That group is meant to be around 99% of deaths I think so around 1300 ?

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

That group is meant to be around 99% of deaths I think so around 1300 ?

Groups 1-9 are 99% of deaths. Group 10 also includes those aged 40-49 who weren’t already accounted for.

 

I could be wrong, but my guess is the lion’s share of the deaths outside groups 1-9 come from group 10. So the deaths in people below 40 who don’t qualify for an early vaccine would be absolutely minimal. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yes, but with a 30 people limit and “covid secure”. I assume most people who want to get married this summer will have more than 30 guests and don’t want it to be covid secure 

Quite a few probably don’t want it but will be doing it anyway … a colleague is doing just that … small wedding and organising the reception when things are better 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Best place to get married atm is in your back garden. It’s still a 30 person limit but you can at least sack off the social distancing 

[northernringo]

13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yes, but with a 30 people limit and “covid secure”. I assume most people who want to get married this summer will have more than 30 guests and don’t want it to be covid secure 

Possibly different in NI (although I'd be surprised as we have been behind England at each step of our unlocking), but I was at a wedding at the weekend with over 100 people. Over here, it is based on venue capacity (this venue can normally hold 300).

No dancing or band though which was a bit crap but apart from that it was fairly normal (people ended up dancing at their tables, etc).

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Best place to get married atm is in your back garden. It’s still a 30 person limit but you can at least sack off the social distancing 

Assuming that people have a garden … one that’s big enough for 30 and have all had 2 jabs … yeah that’s a great plan 

[MrBarry465]

14 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

That group is meant to be around 99% of deaths I think so around 1300 ?

If your literal statistic / barometer of a viruses danger to people is literally just 'death' then probably not many.

However, I am 32 and nearly all of the people in my age group (friends) who have caught COVID and had actual symptoms, have had several weeks to months in some cases of those symptoms hanging around.

Whatever spin you want to put on it, that's not a good thing. Particularly as many of those are full time employed.

Edited June 9, 2021 by MrBarry465

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

If your literal statistic / barometer of a viruses danger to people is literally just 'death' then probably not many.

However, I am 32 and nearly all of the people in my age group (friends) who have caught COVID and had actual symptoms, have had several weeks to months in some cases of those symptoms hanging around.

Whatever spin you want to put on it, that's not a good thing. Particularly as many of those are full time employed.

Similar … and for me that extends down to early 20s colleagues who were bed ridden for several weeks with this horrible thing … it’s not something anyone wants to be just getting to seek immunity early … it’s grim 😞 

[Fuzzy Afro]

8 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Assuming that people have a garden … one that’s big enough for 30 and have all had 2 jabs … yeah that’s a great plan 

There’s no rule saying that anyone attending a garden wedding needs a vaccine passport. 

[incident]

17 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Groups 1-9 are 99% of deaths. Group 10 also includes those aged 40-49 who weren’t already accounted for.

 

I could be wrong, but my guess is the lion’s share of the deaths outside groups 1-9 come from group 10. So the deaths in people below 40 who don’t qualify for an early vaccine would be absolutely minimal. 

Since March last year - Amongst people who died in English Hospitals (so not a complete data set but a good indication), 650 of 87,241 deaths were people under 40. I'd have to assume that even within that, a significant majority of the 650 would be in Groups 1-9 either as Vulnerable or high exposure risk Health/Care workers.

[El Matador]

7 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

If your literal statistic / barometer of a viruses danger to people is literally just 'death' then probably not many.

However, I am 32 and nearly all of the people in my age group (friends) who have caught COVID and had actual symptoms, have had several weeks to months in some cases of those symptoms hanging around.

Whatever spin you want to put on it, that's not a good thing. Particularly as many of those are full time employed.

The aim of restrictions has always been to ensure that people that need hospital care have access to it. 

I've no doubt that catching covid is very unpleasant for a lot of under 40s. However it's not, and never has been, justification for imposing or maintaining restrictions. 

[Ozanne]

11 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Similar … and for me that extends down to early 20s colleagues who were bed ridden for several weeks with this horrible thing … it’s not something anyone wants to be just getting to seek immunity early … it’s grim 😞 

Indeed. Plus a person might have an unknown underlying condition which means they aren’t able to recover as well. 

[JoeyT]

11 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Similar … and for me that extends down to early 20s colleagues who were bed ridden for several weeks with this horrible thing … it’s not something anyone wants to be just getting to seek immunity early … it’s grim 😞 

It's quite mad how it effects people (below the vulnerable threshold) differently.

I had it back in Jan - bit of a head cold, lost taste & smell and had headaches for a few days but none of the lung related issues at all. Recovered very quickly. The day I finished isolation I did a 5km run.

It's odd because having had it with those symptoms I'd go as far as saying it's even harder to comprehend my fellow younger cohort being bed ridden etc. than it was prior to having it (if that makes sense?!)

[mike46]

29 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

If your literal statistic / barometer of a viruses danger to people is literally just 'death' then probably not many.

However, I am 32 and nearly all of the people in my age group (friends) who have caught COVID and had actual symptoms, have had several weeks to months in some cases of those symptoms hanging around.

Whatever spin you want to put on it, that's not a good thing. Particularly as many of those are full time employed.

But on the flip side there’s just as many people in that age group who had no symptoms/mild illness.

 

i’m 31 and know of at least 30 friends within 5 years who had it and had absolutely nothing more than a day or two feeling a bit run down. I personally didn’t even know I had had it until I had to do the plasma test last summer. 

[Ozanne]

All illnesses will effect everyone in a different way, some are lucky with bugs/illnesses but some are not and suffer much worse. It’s just one of those aspects of life/biology. 

[Zacko]

Thankfully I don't feel too bad at all after the jab yesterday (other than the slightly sore arm). 

However it did take me absolutely ages to fall asleep last night, and I had some perplexingly weird dreams and a few night terrors. Not sure if it's related to the jab, but seeing my room slowly filling up with Jaffa Cakes was a vibe. Shame I woke up tbh.