When will this shit end?

[MEGABOWL]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Well, they warned us about all sorts of stuff that has proved to be a problem eventually. It's not like they invented the indian variant to have a go at the government or anything. It isn't them who have caused the virus to keep spreading through schools. I mean, maybe you don't like what they're saying, maybe you feel they have been too critical of the government, but if you actually look at what they say on their presentations or in joint statements, a lot of it is not political or extreme.

But that misses the point that they’re free to scream as hard as they want for restrictions and will get airtime because they’re the go to for such arguments. Then, when the Government doesn’t follow them because they have much more to take into account, claim that they have been right because that’s impossible to prove or disprove. It’s the easiest job in the world but because it is always criticism that noise just becomes meaningless and counter productive.

They add nothing of value beyond scaring people, sometimes-e.g.the Brazilian and SA Variants-unnecessarily.

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

No they havent. They were calling for schools be closed between Jan and March!

Had that happened, we probably wouldn't be talking about delaying 21 June right now either.

Just now, MEGABOWL said:

How have they been proved right? Care to show us the alternate timeline you’ve seen?

Sure.

Prior to the formation of Indie SAGE, Christina Pagel called for a swift and early lockdown in March 2020. Instead the PM dithered about for a month before finally bringing in a lockdown. We locked down after most other European countries, and ended up in lockdown for longer with worse economic damage, and 10,000s of avoidable deaths.

In August 2020 like every other scientist Indie SAGE were imploring an early lockdown, but again Johnson dithered, causing an even worse second wave. Indie SAGE I believe actually recommended a two-week circuit breaker lockdown, but we ended up having do a four week one, and it was clear it wasn't enough.

Indie SAGE opposed re-opening after that lockdown but instead we moved into a tier system that was ineffective.

Indie SAGE again opposed the Christmas reopening plans in December, which were shown to be a complete disaster.

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Had that happened, we probably wouldn't be talking about delaying 21 June right now either.

Sure.

Prior to the formation of Indie SAGE, Christina Pagel called for a swift and early lockdown in March 2020. Instead the PM dithered about for a month before finally bringing in a lockdown. We locked down after most other European countries, and ended up in lockdown for longer with worse economic damage, and 10,000s of avoidable deaths.

In August 2020 like every other scientist Indie SAGE were imploring an early lockdown, but again Johnson dithered, causing an even worse second wave. Indie SAGE I believe actually recommended a two-week circuit breaker lockdown, but we ended up having do a four week one, and it was clear it wasn't enough.

Indie SAGE opposed re-opening after that lockdown but instead we moved into a tier system that was ineffective.

Indie SAGE again opposed the Christmas reopening plans in December, which were shown to be a complete disaster.

So if we hadn't opened the schools back then.... we wouldn't be delaying 21st June now? Fucking hell just when I think you're not completely stupid you go and say something like that..... 
 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

But that misses the point that they’re free to scream as hard as they want for restrictions and will get airtime because they’re the go to for such arguments. Then, when the Government doesn’t follow them because they have much more to take into account, claim that they have been right because that’s impossible to prove or disprove. It’s the easiest job in the world but because it is always criticism that noise just becomes meaningless and counter productive.

They add nothing of value beyond scaring people, sometimes-e.g.the Brazilian and SA Variants-unnecessarily.

yeah, and there are some out there who are screaming for no lockdowns, some are screaming that covid is fake, or that vaccines fuck you up. And yes, Indie Sage are coming at it from a epidimidingdong/virologist sort of point of view, but that is what they are..you can find economists or social health or mental health experts all saying different things too...and yes, the government has to weigh up all these things. But so far, the virus has outweighed everything...because if we just let the thing go then health care collapses and with that social/mental health and the economy.

Edited June 8, 2021 by steviewevie

[DeanoL]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

So if we hadn't opened the schools back then.... we wouldn't be delaying 21st June now? Fucking hell just when I think you're not completely stupid you go and say something like that..... 
 

Oh here comes @Havors again, with no argument, just tearing other people down, nothing of import to say, just wants to attack and mock people, oh mighty Havors, who works in statistics and doesn't understand basic maths, that has nothing interesting to say, so just slags people off - why not share your bounteous intelligence with us all, oh mighty Havors? 

Oh right, because you're a complete fantasist. Seriously, just fuck off.

Edited June 8, 2021 by DeanoL

[fraybentos1]

9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Had that happened, we probably wouldn't be talking about delaying 21 June right now either.

Sure.

Prior to the formation of Indie SAGE, Christina Pagel called for a swift and early lockdown in March 2020. Instead the PM dithered about for a month before finally bringing in a lockdown. We locked down after most other European countries, and ended up in lockdown for longer with worse economic damage, and 10,000s of avoidable deaths.

In August 2020 like every other scientist Indie SAGE were imploring an early lockdown, but again Johnson dithered, causing an even worse second wave. Indie SAGE I believe actually recommended a two-week circuit breaker lockdown, but we ended up having do a four week one, and it was clear it wasn't enough.

Indie SAGE opposed re-opening after that lockdown but instead we moved into a tier system that was ineffective.

Indie SAGE again opposed the Christmas reopening plans in December, which were shown to be a complete disaster.

So is the only viable option to just have been locked down between March 2020 for over an entire year? 

If all you have to worry about is the virus then yes it is easy to lower prevelance by just locking down. It has big impacts outwith that though.

[jimmillen]

44 minutes ago, st dan said:

I think all Johnson, Whitty, Valance and Van Tam have to do is hold a conference to explain the reasons behind a month delay - the main factors being the more transmissible Delta variant, which is shown to need two vaccinations to be fully protected against.
Confirm that we will be keeping the current restrictions in place (which will appease the majority) and the additional time enables us to get those double jabs in.
I don’t think it will be seen as ‘back peddling’ if it is delivered strongly and directly, with evidence to back it up.  

Careful, that's far too sensible a reply for this thread. 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Oh here comes @Havors again, with no argument, just tearing other people down, nothing of import to say, just wants to attack and mock people, oh mighty Havors, who works in statistics and doesn't understand basic maths, that has nothing interesting to say, so just slags people off - why not share your bounteous intelligence with us all, oh mighty Havors? 

Oh right, because you're a complete fantasist. Seriously, just fuck off.

No Deano... you just keep saying stupid stupid things.  

I don't need an argument to point out you talking complete shit. 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Oh here comes @Havors again, with no argument, just tearing other people down, nothing of import to say, just wants to attack and mock people, oh mighty Havors, who works in statistics and doesn't understand basic maths, that has nothing interesting to say, so just slags people off - why not share your bounteous intelligence with us all, oh mighty Havors? 

Oh right, because you're a complete fantasist. Seriously, just fuck off.

You said if schools were closed between Jan and March we wouldn't be delaying 21st June right now?

Schools were shut then?....

[Hannibal Schmitt]

36 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I genuinely don't understand how it is possible for the Indian variant to be so much more transmissible but it hasn't taken off in Italy, USA etc. How can that be possible?

This goes back to border politics I would assume.

[Havors]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

You said if schools were closed between Jan and March we wouldn't be delaying 21st June right now?

Schools were shut then?....

He says lots of things like this...  I dont think he really understands what he is saying half the time he just likes to contradict people. He will probably put this one down to trying to keep it simple so everyone could understand again....  

 

[steviewevie]

Just now, Hannibal Schmitt said:

This goes back to border politics I would assume.

Maybe it will take off in those countries...I think most likely why it's surging here at moment is the connection beween the sub continent and UK...and that there were religious holidays that people were possibly travelling for.

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

So is the only viable option to just have been locked down between March 2020 for over an entire year? 

If all you have to worry about is the virus then yes it is easy to lower prevelance by just locking down. It has big impacts outwith that though.

Not at all - you lockdown earlier, you force the virus right down, then use test and trace to try and manage any outbreaks. At the point that fails, you lockdown again - but early, to force it back down.

Most of Europe lockdown for shorter periods of time than we did, yet still managed lower numbers of infections and deaths. The main difference is they did it earlier. Their economies did better too.

We could probably have got away with just three month-long lockdowns if we did it early enough and did it right. (And had a working test and trace system)

But in all three cases we always locked down far past the point we should have done, so ended up stuck that way for months on end.

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

You said if schools were closed between Jan and March we wouldn't be delaying 21st June right now?

Schools were shut then?....

I was told they weren't! I haven't really followed school openings and closures, don't have kids. I just believe what people say in this thread, I take them at face value and don't feel the need to fact check in case someone is baiting me into a trap!

But we're right on the cusp of being able to re-open and outpace the virus with vaccines right now. I'd say any significant additional measure that we had taken earlier in the year to prevent spread would have tipped the balance to the point that we'd be a couple of weeks further back on infections than we are now and 21 June wouldn't be in question.

[DeanoL]

7 minutes ago, Havors said:

No Deano... you just keep saying stupid stupid things.  

I don't need an argument to point out you talking complete shit. 

Thanks for your wisdom and eloquently put point, Mighty Havors. I feel utterly destroyed by your amazingly put argument.

[reflekting]

49 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Well, they warned us about all sorts of stuff that has proved to be a problem eventually. It's not like they invented the indian variant to have a go at the government or anything. It isn't them who have caused the virus to keep spreading through schools. I mean, maybe you don't like what they're saying, maybe you feel they have been too critical of the government, but if you actually look at what they say on their presentations or in joint statements, a lot of it is not political or extreme.

Even a clock is right twice a day.

[MEGABOWL]

17 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Had that happened, we probably wouldn't be talking about delaying 21 June right now either.

Sure.

Prior to the formation of Indie SAGE, Christina Pagel called for a swift and early lockdown in March 2020. Instead the PM dithered about for a month before finally bringing in a lockdown. We locked down after most other European countries, and ended up in lockdown for longer with worse economic damage, and 10,000s of avoidable deaths.

In August 2020 like every other scientist Indie SAGE were imploring an early lockdown, but again Johnson dithered, causing an even worse second wave. Indie SAGE I believe actually recommended a two-week circuit breaker lockdown, but we ended up having do a four week one, and it was clear it wasn't enough.

Indie SAGE opposed re-opening after that lockdown but instead we moved into a tier system that was ineffective.

Indie SAGE again opposed the Christmas reopening plans in December, which were shown to be a complete disaster.

But that isn’t proof of anything. That’s you saying what you *think* makes them right. We don’t actually know what the effect of following their timeline would have been on the course of the Pandemic or all the thousands of other things Independent SAGE (and other similar loose cannons) don’t take into Account. It’s easy to dish out recommendations when the quality of them can never be proven or disproven.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I was told they weren't! I haven't really followed school openings and closures, don't have kids. I just believe what people say in this thread, I take them at face value and don't feel the need to fact check in case someone is baiting me into a trap!

But we're right on the cusp of being able to re-open and outpace the virus with vaccines right now. I'd say any significant additional measure that we had taken earlier in the year to prevent spread would have tipped the balance to the point that we'd be a couple of weeks further back on infections than we are now and 21 June wouldn't be in question.

Doubling down on the stupid again? You are effectively saying schools not re-opening way back when would have stopped the Delta variant causing us problems now? Because that is the one single reason we wont be re-opening on the 21st June. 

 

 

[DeanoL]

Just now, MEGABOWL said:

But that isn’t proof of anything. That’s you saying what you *think* makes them right. We don’t actually know what the effect of following their timeline would have been on the course of the Pandemic or all the thousands of other things Independent SAGE (and other similar loose cannons) don’t take into Account. It’s easy to dish out recommendations when the quality of them can never be proven or disproven.

If you think the government were right in not locking down earlier I refer you to that book I recommended earlier if you want proof they were wrong and don't just want to take my secondhand reporting of it: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Failures-State-Inside-Britains-Coronavirus/dp/0008430527/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=failures+of+state&qid=1623161739&sr=8-1

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

Doubling down on the stupid again? You are effectively saying schools not re-opening way back when would have stopped the Delta variant causing us problems now? Because that is the one single reason we wont be re-opening on the 21st June. 

Yes, yes I'm doubling down. You want to go have a w*nk over how you're next going to own me with your pathetic lonely bullshit?

[Toilet Duck]

...think I've wandered into the wrong thread...

 

[MEGABOWL]

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

If you think the government were right in not locking down earlier I refer you to that book I recommended earlier if you want proof they were wrong and don't just want to take my secondhand reporting of it: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Failures-State-Inside-Britains-Coronavirus/dp/0008430527/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=failures+of+state&qid=1623161739&sr=8-1

Unless that book documents an actual timeline that can categorically demonstrate that following Indie SAGE advice would have been beneficial it is also an opinion. However it can’t, because that didn’t happen. Which is why it’s easy for anyone to dish out advice and recommendations when they don’t have to deal with the consequences and claim to be right when that will never be tested.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

If you think the government were right in not locking down earlier I refer you to that book I recommended earlier if you want proof they were wrong and don't just want to take my secondhand reporting of it: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Failures-State-Inside-Britains-Coronavirus/dp/0008430527/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=failures+of+state&qid=1623161739&sr=8-1

This I agree with. We most definitely reacted too slow in locking down, effective making the lockdowns last longer than they had to. 

Who'd of thunk it? We agree on something 😄 

1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

Yes, yes I'm doubling down. You want to go have a w*nk over how you're next going to own me with your pathetic lonely bullshit?

Lonely? w*nking? Haha wow! I take no pleasure in pointing out when you say something stupid trust me. I would do the same to anyone and expect anyone to do the same to me. But by all means stick with your fallacious ad hominem posts. 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, MEGABOWL said:

Unless that book documents an actual timeline that can categorically demonstrate that following Indie SAGE advice would have been beneficial it is also an opinion. However it can’t, because that didn’t happen. Which is why it’s easy for anyone to dish out advice and recommendations when they don’t have to deal with the consequences and claim to be right when that will never be tested.

It pretty clearly demonstrates that bringing in each lockdown about a month earlier would have been beneficial yeah - I mean part of it's opinion but it's the opinion of a very large number of very high up people, and it uses comparables from other countries that took that course of action. 

But no, parallel timelines aren't a thing but I'm happy to hear your argument as to why locking down earlier would have been a bad thing? Because I've not seen that argument anywhere before.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, MEGABOWL said:

But that isn’t proof of anything. That’s you saying what you *think* makes them right. We don’t actually know what the effect of following their timeline would have been on the course of the Pandemic or all the thousands of other things Independent SAGE (and other similar loose cannons) don’t take into Account. It’s easy to dish out recommendations when the quality of them can never be proven or disproven.

yeah, so they can never win. There will always be arguments to the end of time about whether we should have locked down earlier or later or never...what restrictions were effective, and what were more damaging than effective......we'll never ever know for sure what is best method...but with the exponential rise of cases etc you always have to act early if you're going to...and we've seen what can happen if don't act early. Some people will always argue that lockdowns are more harmful than the virus itself, and in long term they may be right..or not.