When will this shit end?

[JoeyT]

 

[andyhh]

Ticket day all over again...

 

[guypjfreak]

11 hours ago, danmarks said:

But isnt the whole argument at the moment.  People are still catching it - mostly younger cos of vaccines etc but they arent ending up in hospital. So out those 50 if 1 or none ends up in hospital then the numbers bit doesnt affect the nhs.

Apologies if that comes across as insensitive to anyone

I get you but my point was if I a little person sat at home knows for sure that more people have got ill than what they officially say then how many more times is this happening... I wouldn't know anything if it didn't happen to be my daughters friends.... 

I think the vaccine output is amazing and something that we in this country should be rightly proud.. I also think that stopping a cricketer from playing because of something he wrote years ago is madness 

Just thought I'd put that bit in lol 

[efcfanwirral]

11 minutes ago, andyhh said:

Ticket day all over again...

 

Would much much prefer a glastonbury ticket

[DeanoL]

17 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

That's what I think - and the day gigs (and other events) are proven OK so in theory non camping should be allowed after 21st whatever happens in the day to day. If not it'll be a political decision not a health one, probably based on it "feeling" dangerous to older people because its crowds, as likely shown by their opinion polls 

I think the sad part is very few people actually care. I recommended a book the other day by two Sunday Times journalists, and stand by that recommendation, it's a very good book, but there was a bit where they were talking about last summer and it said something like "outside of Leicester, with the exception of mass sporting events, the country had fully re-opened". Music and Theatre just ignored entirely. I don't think it's malicious - indeed they do talk about the impact on the arts industry later in the book - but it's clear how little people outside of our bubble think about stuff like that.

I mean if the general public had to choose between festivals and gigs coming back, or foreign holidays coming back, they'd take the latter every time. Which is why I'm not optimistic we'll see festivals before foreign travel.

14 hours ago, JoeyT said:

Interest question - if everything was as it is now data wise and hypothetically Glastonbury was taking place this year & Boris went ahead with June 21st unlocking who would / wouldn’t be attending?

I’d certainly be there.

It's a tough one - probably not now, but that's in part due to my partner knowing one of the single-digit deaths in the past week (30s, single jab, no underlying health conditions) - we know he's a statistical anomaly but it's made us a fair bit more cautious, being the same age range.

[rivalschools.price]

41 minutes ago, Hutchmaster said:

Got my jab booked at Wimbledon's ground on Friday. If it's not Vinnie Jones smashing the needle in my arm while giving me a death stare, I'll be severely disappointed.

He’s got history of grabbing some more ‘private’ parts of the body so fingers crossed that the jab will be in your arm.

[steviewevie]

 

[efcfanwirral]

Thought experiment- who would take a 2 week circuit breaker? Either just Manchester or even everywhere. Obviously schools would have to stay open so might have limited effectiveness

All this "we don't know"...if we're badly wrong the entire summer and realistically rest of the year is gone. And if we're talking about "one final push" of a couple of weeks, surely that's the only way things will actually move in the direction we want 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

Thought experiment- who would take a 2 week circuit breaker? Either just Manchester or even everywhere. Obviously schools would have to stay open so might have limited effectiveness

All this "we don't know"...if we're badly wrong the entire summer and realistically rest of the year is gone. And if we're talking about "one final push" of a couple of weeks, surely that's the only way things will actually move in the direction we want 

Circuit breakers are proven not to work. 

[DeanoL]

 

14 hours ago, jannybruck said:

This is an interesting tweet and something I've been thinking about a lot considering there's no real nuance to the stat of 'hospitalised' – it's binary. But now wards have been emptied out a bit there's a little more ability to take in people who may have much less severe symptoms – the watermark for that has lowered a lot – which might bump up the numbers a bit.

The flip side of that is that during the peaks there were also older people and those with serious conditions that just weren't being admitted to hospital, because we didn't have the resources to treat them. And even some of those with less severe symptoms or less at risk died because hospitals didn't take them in, or they were discouraged from presenting early enough in the first place. 

12 hours ago, El Matador said:

I completely agree that June 21st is entirely arbitrary. I'd much rather have seen a genuine "data not dates" approach rather than the approach the government have taken. 

However, given that this is the approach we've got, I can't agree with delaying removing or easing restrictions unless there's clear evidence that there's a credible risk of exceeding NHS capacity. If this time next week that looks credible then by all means delay it. If not then we need to push ahead. 

June 21st isn't arbitrary at all. It's based on wanting to have a 4-phase unlocking, and that's the bit that is arguably arbitrary. June 21st then comes from allow 4 weeks at each of those stage to monitor the impact of the previous stage - we can't go any earlier as we wouldn't have the data because of the delay between infection, detection, hospitalisation and death. Then there's an extra week to allow businesses to have a week's notice if the unlock is or isn't happening.

That's why the dates were always stated as "no earlier than". They're the absolute best case. It's impossible to go any earlier as you won't have sufficient data from the previous stage to make a scientifically sound judgement. That's why the dates can't be brought forward based on the "data" as the data doesn't exist.

I agree with your second point but the problem here is Johnson also decided to make these re-openings "irreversible". So we can't go back a stage at any point. So if he's looking at the data and seeing a 10% chance of the NHS being overwhelmed, he can't just decide to risk it, because 10% is still pretty high and he's removed the option of another lockdown if it looks like that risk will materialise from his toolkit. So he has to be much, much more certain that when we re-open fully, we'll be okay. 

Interestingly, that's a decision that's been driven in part by the economy and businesses - many have pointed out that the in/out of lockdown cycle is actually more damaging than just having a longer lockdown in the first place. As much as some may be hectoring for us to re-open on 21 June, if the government response is that "we will, but we may now need another lockdown in August if things go badly" they'd quickly change back to wanting a couple of extra weeks now.

The dates were always "earliest possible" based on the scientific method measurement - just we hit the first lot fine so now the expectation is that they're deadlines set in stone.

 

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, steviewevie said:

 

You beat me to it by about 1 second! 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Circuit breakers are proven not to work. 

...when nobody is acquiring immunity during the circuit breaker.

Vaccines change that considerably.

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

I've posted several anti govt stuff when warranted. But I don't really see it interesting to always have a go at them.

Agreed. I don't know why but it's just much more interesting to mock young female scientists than the government. There's just so many more ways to be mean to a woman. 

[aj6658]

Key question we need answering is who is getting hospitalised/ dying currently- If it people who have been invited to get the vaccine but haven't, then I really don't care about them. They were given a choice (note- if it some who is pregnant or similar reason im not so callus but also we cant have that tiny portion of society dictate us all) 

 

The more scary side is if it people who have had 1 or 2 doses of the vaccine. If that is the case then its not a 2 week delay. 

 

We cant keeping living like this. We cant go 2 week delay, then everyone has 2 jabs, then boosters. 

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Circuit breakers are proven not to work. 

 

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

...when nobody is acquiring immunity during the circuit breaker.

Vaccines change that considerably.

This is my thinking- otherwise it'll get out of control and spread from Manchester. Its that or a proper local lockdown but that just drives people elsewhere anyway

1 minute ago, aj6658 said:

Key question we need answering is who is getting hospitalised/ dying currently- If it people who have been invited to get the vaccine but haven't, then I really don't care about them. They were given a choice (note- if it some who is pregnant or similar reason im not so callus but also we cant have that tiny portion of society dictate us all) 

 

The more scary side is if it people who have had 1 or 2 doses of the vaccine. If that is the case then its not a 2 week delay. 

 

We cant keeping living like this. We cant go 2 week delay, then everyone has 2 jabs, then boosters. 

I think the sooner people realise that's the way we'll be going til at least this time next year the quicker people's expectations can be managed

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Agreed. I don't know why but it's just much more interesting to mock young female scientists than the government. There's just so many more ways to be mean to a woman. 

? ive had a go at that Dng idiot as well and that Murphy moron from yesterday. Not sure why youre accusing me of misogyny

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

 

This is my thinking- otherwise it'll get out of control and spread from Manchester. Its that or a proper local lockdown but that just drives people elsewhere anyway

I think the sooner people realise that's the way we'll be going til at least this time next year the quicker people's expectations can be managed

Having said all that, I don't think things are severe enough for a proper lockdown, not matter how short.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

You beat me to it by about 1 second! 

Yes! Get in! I was really rushing to get it on here before anyone else. I win again!

[aj6658]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

This is my thinking- otherwise it'll get out of control and spread from Manchester. Its that or a proper local lockdown but that just drives people elsewhere anyway

I think the sooner people realise that's the way we'll be going til at least this time next year the quicker people's expectations can be managed

but I don't think it has to be that way. If the vaccines didn't work then we would know by now. Theres enough COVID going about  to test that. 

People won't stand to wait till Autumn let alone next year. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

22 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think the sad part is very few people actually care. I recommended a book the other day by two Sunday Times journalists, and stand by that recommendation, it's a very good book, but there was a bit where they were talking about last summer and it said something like "outside of Leicester, with the exception of mass sporting events, the country had fully re-opened". Music and Theatre just ignored entirely. I don't think it's malicious - indeed they do talk about the impact on the arts industry later in the book - but it's clear how little people outside of our bubble think about stuff like that.

I mean if the general public had to choose between festivals and gigs coming back, or foreign holidays coming back, they'd take the latter every time. Which is why I'm not optimistic we'll see festivals before foreign travel.

It's a tough one - probably not now, but that's in part due to my partner knowing one of the single-digit deaths in the past week (30s, single jab, no underlying health conditions) - we know he's a statistical anomaly but it's made us a fair bit more cautious, being the same age range.

I'm sorry to hear that. Had he only just been jabbed? That is shit timing and horrible to hear.

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Thought experiment- who would take a 2 week circuit breaker? Either just Manchester or even everywhere. Obviously schools would have to stay open so might have limited effectiveness

All this "we don't know"...if we're badly wrong the entire summer and realistically rest of the year is gone. And if we're talking about "one final push" of a couple of weeks, surely that's the only way things will actually move in the direction we want 

If 2 week max, then yes I would be ok with that.

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Having said all that, I don't think things are severe enough for a proper lockdown, not matter how short.

I think the point is though, that if things are ever going to be severe enough for a proper lockdown, we should do it now - certainly for most industries that'd be better than doing in August. I do wonder if the vaccine plus a circuit breaker lockdown could actually bring cases to a level that contact tracing would be viable again? I suspect not, but if so it could be worth it.

[mike46]

11 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 

The flip side of that is that during the peaks there were also older people and those with serious conditions that just weren't being admitted to hospital, because we didn't have the resources to treat them. And even some of those with less severe symptoms or less at risk died because hospitals didn't take them in, or they were discouraged from presenting early enough in the first place. 

 

Was there? I can’t find any reported circumstances where a hospital reached capacity and people were turned away to die at home? 
 

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

...when nobody is acquiring immunity during the circuit breaker.

Vaccines change that considerably.

Well yeah, which is why a delay to the roadmap makes sense (not saying I agree with it but I understand the thinking)

 

An actual circuit breaker national lockdown is a not starter though. 

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Agreed. I don't know why but it's just much more interesting to mock young female scientists than the government. There's just so many more ways to be mean to a woman. 

It’s “interesting” to mock anyone who is relentlessly calling for us to be separated from family and friends. At least the government is trying their best to avoid lockdowns whereas fake SAGE are actively embracing them. 

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

but I don't think it has to be that way. If the vaccines didn't work then we would know by now. Theres enough COVID going about  to test that. 

People won't stand to wait till Autumn let alone next year. 

Especially the ones double jabbed.