When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I'd be there 100%. Still would've been a month or two ago to be honest! 

I'd be there if I'd had a ticket...but I don't...so I would have been praying it's cancelled because I can't stand other people being happy.

[Ozanne]

This doesn’t look too good. 

 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

This doesn’t look too good. 

 

ok...what is going on in that graph with the blue dots?

[aj6658]

Another day of deaths in the low single digits and hospitalisations plateaued. Just more evidence that we don't need to delay the 21st. 

The only time I will say that restrictions need to be delayed is if the both of the following occur 

1. Hospitalisations are increasing rapidly and 

2. The people hospitalised are not those who are unvaccinated by choice

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

Another day of deaths in the low single digits and hospitalisations plateaued. Just more evidence that we don't need to delay the 21st. 

The only time I will say that restrictions need to be delayed is if the both of the following occur 

1. Hospitalisations are increasing rapidly and 

2. The people hospitalised are not those who are unvaccinated by choice

yep...problem is they are expecting to see a big increase in cases sometime over the next few weeks and months...and with this delta variant there is still some uncertainty whether there will also be a big increase in hospitalisations. And it's that uncertainty that is the problem. I know it's about risk etc., and at moment it looks good...but govt really don't want to have to impose any restrictions after releasing them later in the summer if they can help it...going in and out of lockdown is a nightmare for small businesses...so they want to make sure that this is definitely it.

[jannybruck]

This is an interesting tweet and something I've been thinking about a lot considering there's no real nuance to the stat of 'hospitalised' – it's binary. But now wards have been emptied out a bit there's a little more ability to take in people who may have much less severe symptoms – the watermark for that has lowered a lot – which might bump up the numbers a bit.

 

[Ozanne]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ok...what is going on in that graph with the blue dots?

They are days in the 2nd wave, every time a dot goes right it's more people being admitted and higher beds being full. So you want to see the dots go left/down which would indicate less people in hospital with COVID essentially. Oliver Johnson has done a better write up of what those graphs mean, I can't find it though.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

They are days in the 2nd wave, every time a dot goes right it's more people being admitted and higher beds being full. So you want to see the dots go left/down which would indicate less people in hospital with COVID essentially. Oliver Johnson has done a better write up of what those graphs mean, I can't find it though.

I get confused when there's no time along the x axis.

[steviewevie]

Our health minister.

[steviewevie]

New York.

 

[MrBarry465]

33 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

Another day of deaths in the low single digits and hospitalisations plateaued. Just more evidence that we don't need to delay the 21st. 

The only time I will say that restrictions need to be delayed is if the both of the following occur 

1. Hospitalisations are increasing rapidly and 

2. The people hospitalised are not those who are unvaccinated by choice

It's a silly comment - you have no idea what the lay of the land is going to be in a few weeks time and then when the restrictions get lifted. 

They need to get every adult group 18+ fully vaccinated or have offered them vaccinations and that won't be by June 21st. Just get the job done once and do it properly, I have no issues with it being pushed back a few weeks to vaccinate as many as possible.

We really don't have overly intense restrictions at the moment as it is anyway.

[MrBarry465]

27 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yep...problem is they are expecting to see a big increase in cases sometime over the next few weeks and months...and with this delta variant there is still some uncertainty whether there will also be a big increase in hospitalisations. And it's that uncertainty that is the problem. I know it's about risk etc., and at moment it looks good...but govt really don't want to have to impose any restrictions after releasing them later in the summer if they can help it...going in and out of lockdown is a nightmare for small businesses...so they want to make sure that this is definitely it.

Yeah I agree with this, just do the job once and do it properly. Get everyone eligible vaccinated, lock the borders up and then open everything up Julyish. We are so close now, theres no need to rush.

[efcfanwirral]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

New York.

 

I have a feeling that no restrictions but with vaccine proof to do things won't be seen as "no restrictions" by many over there. - I got a Springsteen email newsletter about a couple of gigs in August and it said only fully vaccinated allowed 

[El Matador]

26 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

It's a silly comment - you have no idea what the lay of the land is going to be in a few weeks time and then when the restrictions get lifted. 

They need to get every adult group 18+ fully vaccinated or have offered them vaccinations and that won't be by June 21st. Just get the job done once and do it properly, I have no issues with it being pushed back a few weeks to vaccinate as many as possible.

We really don't have overly intense restrictions at the moment as it is anyway.

Why is vaccinating everyone 18 and over the threshold? Why not under 18 as well?

It's a completely arbitrary parameter.

Decision should be based entirely on whether there is a credible risk of the NHS capacity being exceeded. If not then there's no justification for maintaining restrictions. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

This doesn’t look too good. 

 

Yeah it looks a bit like a deformed knob! 

I'm not sure if I'd be at Glastonbury or not if I had a ticket. One of the saving graces of the past two years is that I've never had to worry about whether I'd go or not because I don't have one (it's a shit saving grace). I know I'd really want to but I'm pretty sure my partner wouldn't want to go. That would be awkward as it would likely be just the two of us.

[Ozanne]

8 minutes ago, El Matador said:

Why is vaccinating everyone 18 and over the threshold? Why not under 18 as well?

It's a completely arbitrary parameter.

Decision should be based entirely on whether there is a credible risk of the NHS capacity being exceeded. If not then there's no justification for maintaining restrictions. 

Couldn't you argue that June 21st is a completely arbitrary date? Why does it have to be that date, why not a different date when we will know with more certainty that things are good?

[El Matador]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Couldn't you argue that June 21st is a completely arbitrary date? Why does it have to be that date, why not a different date when we will know with more certainty that things are good?

I completely agree that June 21st is entirely arbitrary. I'd much rather have seen a genuine "data not dates" approach rather than the approach the government have taken. 

However, given that this is the approach we've got, I can't agree with delaying removing or easing restrictions unless there's clear evidence that there's a credible risk of exceeding NHS capacity. If this time next week that looks credible then by all means delay it. If not then we need to push ahead. 

[guypjfreak]

Just been looking at the infection rates for bmth.. 

They say 50 or so but get this my daughters friends went out to a bar.. I'll not say which but its been closed down because they have had over 90.... 90 positive cases since last week end... 15 of them our friends of my daughter.... 

That my friends is not good... 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, guypjfreak said:

Just been looking at the infection rates for bmth.. 

They say 50 or so but get this my daughters friends went out to a bar.. I'll not say which but its been closed down because they have had over 90.... 90 positive cases since last week end... 15 of them our friends of my daughter.... 

That my friends is not good... 

I presume this pub might have been breaking some of the guidelines ? Has she been jabbed guy ? Or did she not go ? 

[guypjfreak]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

I presume this pub might have been breaking some of the guidelines ? Has she been jabbed guy ? Or did she not go ? 

She didn't go... Luckily 

Apparently no proper track or trace records etc... They shut due to the lack of staff as far as I can tell.. But it's mad about the numbers.. Imagine if this is happening all over the place. Nightmare old son nightmare 

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I presume this pub might have been breaking some of the guidelines ? Has she been jabbed guy ? Or did she not go ? 

To be fair without masks in an indoor environment even the "correct" distance apart is always liable to the occasional super spreader event. 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, guypjfreak said:

She didn't go... Luckily 

Apparently no proper track or trace records etc... They shut due to the lack of staff as far as I can tell.. But it's mad about the numbers.. Imagine if this is happening all over the place. Nightmare old son nightmare 

Just shows how it can escalate … hopefully the jabs should prevent more serious issues and an element of spread 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

To be fair without masks in an indoor environment even the "correct" distance apart is always liable to the occasional super spreader event. 

Yep totally … it’s mad watching some of the videos of spread in poorly ventilated rooms … 

[stuartbert two hats]

I've looked at today's Manchester numbers. I'm not going to post them. Hurumph.

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I've looked at today's Manchester numbers. I'm not going to post them. Hurumph.

these?