When will this shit end?

[faymondo]

14 hours ago, steviewevie said:

have you tried blinking a lot at the checkout in tescos?

The girl on the till thought I was winking at her and I am now banned from all Tesco's 

[zahidf]

 

[efcfanwirral]

34 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Seems like they should maybe do a presser soon? Just to let people know what the current thinking is. Probably too much to ask.

Just checked on the NHS app and my Saturday jab is showing already but it does still say the barcode will expire by 20 June. Wondering what the significance of that date is, being that it's the day before supposedly the end of restrictions? Do other double-jabbed peeps show the same?

 

23 minutes ago, incident said:

Think it's just that barcodes are valid for 2 weeks from generation, and if you check tomorrow it'll say 21st.

I'm pretty sure I've heard of the same thing from others. 

I've just got this funny feeling about that - something not being quite right. The government response to that Blair interview with something along the lines of "he's suggesting something we're already looking at" makes me think there's something afoot on this. 

If I had to guess, it'd be that the app is planned to update on that day to include testing as an option in the interim before everyone can realistically have two (and maybe its just easiest to generate new codes for all). Could be good for events but I don't know how much further it could be taken. 

I also wouldn't rule out the new time limit being for the booster at some point

Edited June 7, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Ryan1984]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

I agree- I hate the psychological manipulation so much 

Despite the plan clearly being as you said, I guarantee they'll turn people on each other way before that time and blame people who haven't taken the vaccine for the delay. Even though we never had a hope of opening up fully before majority have had two doses. 

Mark drakeford will be shown to be the most honest of the leaders when 2021 is done

They’ve already started with the ‘young people, you must get your vaccine when offered’ when so many are still awaiting the call/text.

[stuie]

I’ve just got a reminder for my second vaccine appointment that was cancelled! I’ve already had the second one!

Maybe I could have a triple shot just in case 😂😂

[BobWillis2]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

 

But if the vaccine doesn't work for you, you'll end up in hospital if you get COVID. 

What the fuck are you talking about? 

[Crazyfool01]

4 minutes ago, stuie said:

I’ve just got a reminder for my second vaccine appointment that was cancelled! I’ve already had the second one!

Maybe I could have a triple shot just in case 😂😂

Have they  started on the boosters already …. Ffs 

Edited June 7, 2021 by crazyfool1

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, BobWillis2 said:

What the fuck are you talking about? 

I’ve seen some ropey mathematics by the doomers on this thread but suggesting that everyone who the vaccine doesn’t work on will end up in hospital if they catch covid really takes the proverbial biscuit. 

[Ozanne]

Sorry if this thread has been posted but it’s a decent read, the author has remodelled and amended his ideas for step 4. He assumes that baseline controls such WFH will continue till the end of the year.

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Thankfully the government will completely ignore these Helen Lovejoy tribute acts 

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve seen some ropey mathematics by the doomers on this thread but suggesting that everyone who the vaccine doesn’t work on will end up in hospital if they catch covid really takes the proverbial biscuit. 

Yeah... it increases the chance of you catching the virus if it doesn't work but that doesn't automatically mean you'll need a hospital

[squirrelarmy]

13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve seen some ropey mathematics by the doomers on this thread but suggesting that everyone who the vaccine doesn’t work on will end up in hospital if they catch covid really takes the proverbial biscuit. 

OK Doomer

[zahidf]

Some 28/29 year olds can book vaccines online now apparently.

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah... it increases the chance of you catching the virus if it doesn't work but that doesn't automatically mean you'll need a hospital

Also, more cases would mean more hospitalisations, but it's clear that vaccines have stopped it rising to the same extent. So a 20 % rise in cases won't mean a 20% rise in hospitalisations.  The percentage increase in hospitalisations with a rise in cases isn't known yet for sure, hence the caution. 

[sjseabass]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Okay I see where you're coming from now. You're right I'm looking at from a population perspective rather than an individual perspective. Yes, for an individual, the vaccine either works or not.

However before that kicks in, you actually have to catch COVID. And the more cases there are, the more likely you are to catch COVID. So yeah, if the vaccine works in you, you have a 0% chance of going to hospital if you don't catch COVID and still have a 0% chance if you do. So yeah, in those cases the infection rate isn't relevant.

But if the vaccine doesn't work for you, you'll end up in hospital if you get COVID. And if the cases are lower, you're much less likely to get COVID and up in hospital than if the cases are high.

But given that we can't identify who the vaccine does and doesn't work in ahead of time, at a population level that distinction is irrelevant. As those people won't behave any differently because no-one knows. So it's not like the 5% or whatever of people the vaccine doesn't work for can take extra precautions. 

So the more cases there are, the more likely those people catch it, the more likely they end up in hospital, so the more hospitalisations you get. Hence the number of infections still matters.

Hmmm - which of these does the (say) 90% effectiveness of the vaccine actually mean?

1. 90% of vaccinated people have complete protection from Covid all the time, 10% have no protection at all

2. All vaccinated people have complete protection from Covid 90% of the time, 10% of the time they don't (perhaps because of viral load)

3. Some mixture of the two, depending on age and comorbidity

I've never seen anyone confirm which of these it is.

[stuie]

21 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve seen some ropey mathematics by the doomers on this thread but suggesting that everyone who the vaccine doesn’t work on will end up in hospital if they catch covid really takes the proverbial biscuit. 

If we are lucky, he’ll have one last go at explaining it to us all. 

[JoeyT]

What genes you wearing?

 

[worthyraver]

3 hours ago, DeanoL said:

Finished this book over the weekend - highly recommended if you're interseted in an overview of what the government got wrong at various points: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Failures-State-Inside-Britains-Coronavirus/dp/0008430527/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2LDSCJ4381IMB&dchild=1&keywords=failures+of+state&qid=1623058968&sprefix=failures+of%2Caps%2C225&sr=8-1

I just bought this from your recommendation promises to be a essential but depressing read thanks, I think 🙂

[steviewevie]

The only way young people can get a shag is through a dating app and proof of vaccine.

[DeanoL]

43 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve seen some ropey mathematics by the doomers on this thread but suggesting that everyone who the vaccine doesn’t work on will end up in hospital if they catch covid really takes the proverbial biscuit. 

Well it depends how you define the vaccine working I guess? We all seem to agree hospitalisations are the main issue here, so for me, the vaccine "works" if it keeps me out of hospital. So yeah, vaccinated people who end up in hospital are people for who the vaccine doesn't work, by definition. 

Are you arguing that the vaccine might not work in someone, but then they are naturally safe from COVID anyway so they don't end up in hospital? Because yes, that's theoretically possible - but in that case it's impossible to say if the vaccine has worked or not. So it doesn't matter. All that matters is the remaining proportion of the population that doesn't currently have immunity.

If case rates go up, hospitalisations go up. The more they go up, the more hospitalisations will go up. Vaccinations push that down a bit, as does naturally gained immunity - but there are still tens of thousands of people without immunity and we can't have the virus spread so fast it hits large proportions of those people in one go.

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The only way young people can get a shag is through a dating app and proof of vaccine.

don't forget the oldies 🙂 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Well it depends how you define the vaccine working I guess? We all seem to agree hospitalisations are the main issue here, so for me, the vaccine "works" if it keeps me out of hospital. So yeah, vaccinated people who end up in hospital are people for who the vaccine doesn't work, by definition. 

Are you arguing that the vaccine might not work in someone, but then they are naturally safe from COVID anyway so they don't end up in hospital? Because yes, that's theoretically possible - but in that case it's impossible to say if the vaccine has worked or not. So it doesn't matter. All that matters is the remaining proportion of the population that doesn't currently have immunity.

If case rates go up, hospitalisations go up. The more they go up, the more hospitalisations will go up. Vaccinations push that down a bit, as does naturally gained immunity - but there are still tens of thousands of people without immunity and we can't have the virus spread so fast it hits large proportions of those people in one go.

can you see us requiring restrictions every winter, particularly if they're expecting a bad flu season?

[JoeyT]

 

[Havors]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve seen some ropey mathematics by the doomers on this thread but suggesting that everyone who the vaccine doesn’t work on will end up in hospital if they catch covid really takes the proverbial biscuit. 

Yeah its hard to stop myself literally banging my head on the desk  with some of the shocking math.  

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

The link isn't broken though apparently. 

I personally expect to see a very small increase in the next couple of weeks due to the variant hitting those clever people who decided not to get vaccinated. Then drop to nothing again before we inevitably get more as we head into autumn winter. 

Thats just my hunch from everything ive read so far. I hope im right haha