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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Alas, coronaviruses only account for about 10-15% of common colds. rhinoviruses cause most of them and a few others (RSV, parainfluenza virus among others)…and there’s bloody loads of different rhinoviruses! So, it’s probably something we’ll have to put up with I’m afraid!

Oh. Bummer.

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6 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Alas, coronaviruses only account for about 10-15% of common colds. rhinoviruses cause most of them and a few others (RSV, parainfluenza virus among others)…and there’s bloody loads of different rhinoviruses! So, it’s probably something we’ll have to put up with I’m afraid!

So we couldn't "just" whip up an mRNA cocktail of all of them I take it? 😁

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2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

So we couldn't "just" whip up an mRNA cocktail of all of them I take it? 😁

I thought I'd read, and posted on here, that new mRNAs were great but they could only fight (if that's the right word) about four viruses in any one set of combinations, whereas the old style (adenovirus?) ones, you could put as much as you liked in to those. Might be wrong but I'm sure I saw it somewhere.

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1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

So we couldn't "just" whip up an mRNA cocktail of all of them I take it? 😁

I think there’s about 100 rhinoviruses at the last count! That’s a lot of different sequences to try to build into a cocktail (we haven’t got a working multi-valent Covid one yet, though I’d say it’s possible). RSV can be nasty though and there will likely be a mRNA vaccine for that sooner rather than later. 

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2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

I thought I'd read, and posted on here, that new mRNAs were great but they could only fight (if that's the right word) about four viruses in any one set of combinations, whereas the old style (adenovirus?) ones, you could put as much as you liked in to those. Might be wrong but I'm sure I saw it somewhere.

All I'd heard is around the difficulty in dosing if you tried to combine multiple variants in one shot - meaning you'd have to go through a full Phase 3 trial. I thought I'd heard someone on podcast The Week On Virology saying there was no theoretical limit.  But I can see how there could be - something you've heard of Prof. Duck?

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Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

All I'd heard is around the difficulty in dosing if you tried to combine multiple variants in one shot - meaning you'd have to go through a full Phase 3 trial. I thought I'd heard someone on podcast The Week On Virology saying there was no theoretical limit.  But I can see how there could be - something you've heard of Prof. Duck?

Well, for the mRNA ones, toxicity was ok at the higher limits tested, but we haven’t pushed it to see how much you can inject without triggering some other response. I think we are overdosing at the moment (and the outcomes in the LD arm of the AZ trial would support that). So, you could probably stick with the same amount of mRNA as we currently use and have more than one transcript in there and hit multiple variants at the same time. I’d expect this to be tested (if it isn’t already). For the adenoviral vectors, there’s room in the genome to insert more genes, but there is a maximum size, it can’t just keep getting bigger, so you could probably pop a few more different spike genes (or n genes) in there and it would still work. Sequential dosing may be easier though if boosters are updated to reflect prevailing variants (much the same way we do for flu). 

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1 hour ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Why don't we care about variants to other viruses? 

We do, that's why there's a new flu jab every year.

Other viruses don't exhibit the same behaviour. E.g. Measles has at least four main different types but the vaccine developed gives general immunity against all of them.

Variants are one of the main reason why it's been so difficult to develop a reliable malaria vaccine.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

We do, that's why there's a new flu jab every year.

Other viruses don't exhibit the same behaviour. E.g. Measles has at least four main different types but the vaccine developed gives general immunity against all of them.

Variants are one of the main reason why it's been so difficult to develop a reliable malaria vaccine.

 

 

I remember back in the day (i.e. last year) when the thought was variants wouldn't be an issue for covid and vaccines because it's not like flu.

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16 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

We do, that's why there's a new flu jab every year.

Other viruses don't exhibit the same behaviour. E.g. Measles has at least four main different types but the vaccine developed gives general immunity against all of them.

Variants are one of the main reason why it's been so difficult to develop a reliable malaria vaccine.

 

 

Not to the extent of a mutation overwhelming the NHS we don't. 

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1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 I thought I'd heard someone on podcast The Week On Virology saying there was no theoretical limit. 

17 months ago I'll bet you never would have imagined writing that sentence.

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1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

If link between cases and hospitalisations is broken and we can open up completely on 21st June, then surely vaccines shouldn't be going into younger people's arms here, but into vulnerable people's arms elsewhere in the world?

The global vaccine production is scaling up so much of late, plus we'll soon have a surplus to spare. Would you risk a autumn/winter surge and all the impact on this country to make a very negligible dint in the global picture? Probably talking about giving 30-40 million doses away if that was the plan.

Also the risk of a new variant happening here and causing greater issues globally if we took that course.

If we were to do a cost benefit analysis it would be in our interest to sort ourselves first imo. Look at this government ( and country) view on foreign aid not as if they care too much, there are cheaper and better ways to save lives than give covid vaccines away whilst we are still not on top of it.

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1 minute ago, august1 said:

The global vaccine production is scaling up so much of late, plus we'll soon have a surplus to spare. Would you risk a autumn/winter surge and all the impact on this country to make a very negligible dint in the global picture? Probably talking about giving 30-40 million doses away if that was the plan.

Also the risk of a new variant happening here and causing greater issues globally if we took that course.

If we were to do a cost benefit analysis it would be in our interest to sort ourselves first imo. Look at this government ( and country) view on foreign aid not as if they care too much, there are cheaper and better ways to save lives than give covid vaccines away whilst we are still not on top of it.

but if link between cases and hospitalisations has been broken than we are on top of it...what's the point of rushing to vaccinate kids and young people?

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2 minutes ago, august1 said:

The global vaccine production is scaling up so much of late, plus we'll soon have a surplus to spare. Would you risk a autumn/winter surge and all the impact on this country to make a very negligible dint in the global picture? Probably talking about giving 30-40 million doses away if that was the plan.

Also the risk of a new variant happening here and causing greater issues globally if we took that course.

If we were to do a cost benefit analysis it would be in our interest to sort ourselves first imo. Look at this government ( and country) view on foreign aid not as if they care too much, there are cheaper and better ways to save lives than give covid vaccines away whilst we are still not on top of it.

The government might be about to suffer a rebellion on foreign aid this coming week.

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3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

but if link between cases and hospitalisations has been broken than we are on top of it...what's the point of rushing to vaccinate kids and young people?

my definition of on top of it is different to yours then until we can go living anywhere near to like we did before this, we aren't on top of it but living through it.  15 months of terrible living conditions isn't 'rushing' anything.

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10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

but if link between cases and hospitalisations has been broken than we are on top of it...what's the point of rushing to vaccinate kids and young people?

It's not broken - it's altered to the point where we might be able to open up and still race to get everyone vaccinated without too much loss of life. The vaccines are good, but not that good - especially with the current variants.

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1 minute ago, august1 said:

my definition of on top of it is different to yours then until we can go living anywhere near to like we did before this, we aren't on top of it but living through it.  15 months of terrible living conditions isn't 'rushing' anything.

my definition of on top of it is if due to our current vaccination programme we are able to lift all restrictions on 21st June because our health services are no longer threatened to be overwhelmed by this virus. Maybe that will take away the need to rush to vaccinate all over 12s asap although not saying we don't need to do that eventually...but some (millions) of vaccines could be sent to countries like Yemen, Syria or Afghanistan. Maybe G7 will come up with some sort of deal with this anyway...

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1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's not broken - it's altered to the point where we might be able to open up and still race to get everyone vaccinated without too much loss of life. The vaccines are good, but not that good - especially with the current variants.

yeah...ok...but that can be fixed with more 2nd doses into older people, right? Not jabbing kids and 20 somethings.

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17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...ok...but that can be fixed with more 2nd doses into older people, right? Not jabbing kids and 20 somethings.

Not if we also want to drive prevalence down.

Some people are immunocompromised, so the fewer cases we have, the safer they are. And as for the younger adults, a tiny proportion of a huge number can still be a large number.  Besides, when variant Epsilon inevitably comes around, it could be even more dangerous to people who have never seen the virus before.

And yes, we don't want that new variant to arise here, because we decided to just let it rip for the sake of a small proportion of our total doses.

Considering how close we are to getting all the adult population vaccinated at least, let's finish the job, get R under 1 permanently so we can stop being a source of this virus.

If it was just the original variant, I'd agree with you, and I think I was 50/50 for the Kent variant, but it's pretty clear these variants will keep on coming, let's finish the job.

Anyway, we made so many bets, it looks like we'll still be able to donate shit loads of doses.

 

 

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1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's not broken - it's altered to the point where we might be able to open up and still race to get everyone vaccinated without too much loss of life. The vaccines are good, but not that good - especially with the current variants.

Anything over 50%, for a virus vaccine is VERY good.

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