When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

Just now, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Yeah it's usually busier, it's why you get major incidents, social workers scrambling to get old folks out if hospital and home with care packages etc... It's always sailing close to the wind though. It's designed to. 

yeah, but it's not sailing close to the wind all year...right? But they need to have capacity for any bad outbreaks of whatever...which I expect is causing some to worry about this winter if we get a lot of flu + covid.

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, incident said:

In the poorest countries a lot of vaccinations are handled by aid organisations like MSF rather than local authorities. Vaccinating a whole population in a (hopefully) short space of time is a big ask and way beyond normal scope of what's done - especially if it's being done near simultaneously all over the world.

Yes, the problem in Brazil is a lack of preparation and allocated resource rather than a lack of capability to provide resource. But it's still a problem regardless of how it came to be.

In both scenarios I do think there's some benefit to the UK Government (and the US, and EU nations) stepping in and providing specific targetted resource (which could equipment, money, and even personnel) to nations that are for whatever reason unable to sort themselves out. As an easy example, many areas now have buses converted to rolling vaccination centres - as soon as we're finished, rather than scrap them or convert them back to normal use get the Army to put them all on transporter planes and have them travelling around the world. We've trained up tens of thousands of volunteer vaccinators - offer them a chance of paid work accompanying those buses for a month or two. It'd only be a minority that took the chance, but what a positive experience it'd be.

and give us a better footing in the world ... when it comes to trying to make trade deals 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

Why don't we care about variants to other viruses? 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, but it's not sailing close to the wind all year...right? But they need to have capacity for any bad outbreaks of whatever...which I expect is causing some to worry about this winter if we get a lot of flu + covid.

It's always close to the wind it's just closer in winter. 

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Why don't we care about variants to other viruses? 

we do with flu, don't we? Not sure about other viruses, maybe they mutate less, maybe mutations are less of an issue.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

It's always close to the wind it's just closer in winter. 

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/

ha, ok...anyway, it is worse in winter.

So, if close to the wind in summer also...that maybe highlights why they are concerned about a possible surge in cases this summer as we relax all restrictions..

[steviewevie]

going down the rollercoaster already.

[Aeroplane Over the Sea]

14 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Why don't we care about variants to other viruses? 

Not many other viruses are killing millions of people in a year and sprouting new variants several times a year that are increasingly more infective 

[Copperface]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ha, ok...anyway, it is worse in winter.

So, if close to the wind in summer also...that maybe highlights why they are concerned about a possible surge in cases this summer as we relax all restrictions..

Normally runs at 91% capacity with a bit left over as a buffer for unforeseen events. This event was unforeseen, one might even say unprecedented.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Normally runs at 91% capacity with a bit left over as a buffer for unforeseen events. This event was unforeseen, one might even say unprecedented.

or unplanned for .... might be a bit of that too 🙂 

[Copperface]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

or unplanned for .... might be a bit of that too 🙂 

That too.

Was also worse because of the cross infection risk, as per above, where entire wards, and in some cases, entire floors, were dedicated Covid handling areas, different A&E facilities, hot zones etc.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Double jabbed! Expected it to be busy today but was dead quiet. I was there five minutes max. Feels pretty good though!

[Toilet Duck]

35 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

diferent jabs and delivery methods become available so it becomes easier .... wasnt it unlikely that it changes completely to evade vaccines .... more that the changes need to be adapted for ..... maybe @Toilet Duck might give us a bit of insight on having to rejab the healthy younger population ? but obviously the flu jab cohort would get the annual jab including covid  as usual .... and maybe this goes to a slightly younger age ?

At the moment, expectation is that boosters for the most vulnerable, at least, will be used coming into winter this year. The UK has a deal with AZ for a P1 booster and Israel, EU, US have all ordered enough Pfizer vaccines for 1-2 dose boosters for their entire population each year for the next two years (suggesting they plan to use them, but haven’t decided whether a single boost is sufficient, or whether a full course is required again). The problem is that while immunity might last, we haven’t been looking for long enough to be sure, so I would expect boosters annually for pretty much everyone for the next couple of years whether we need them or not (we don’t know if we do, but it’s a risk not to).

In terms of variants, there’s still no evidence that any of them penetrate the protection of the vaccines in terms of the most serious outcomes and that is likely to remain the case (it’s highly unlikely the virus could change that much and still function the same way)…However, boosts with updated vaccines will build our immunological repertoire and strengthen our defences, so those annual boosts could well be updated vaccines targeted against variants that demonstrate some vaccine escape (in terms of infection), or indeed, newer vaccines may seek to build the parts of our immune response that are missing from those never naturally infected. In a weird way, if “delta” does cause breakthrough infections that don’t lead to any serious outcomes in vaccinated individuals, then infection may actually not be that bad a thing (it will lead to the emergence of an immune response with even greater diversity). That’s a pretty risky thing to be hoping for though! Best outcome is that what is seen in the recent Siren study report (vaccine wall holding firm against all variants) is what we see across the world, reinforcing the fact that we can vaccinate our way out of this.

Edited June 5, 2021 by Toilet Duck
Typo!

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

18 minutes ago, Aeroplane Over the Sea said:

Not many other viruses are killing millions of people in a year and sprouting new variants several times a year that are increasingly more infective 

One mutation and they might.

[thewayiam]

These numbers need to shift. That case number for Saturday compared to the last however long is crazy!

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

At the moment, expectation is that boosters for the most vulnerable, at least, will be used coming into winter this year. The UK has a deal with AZ for a P1 booster and Israel, EU, US have all ordered enough Pfizer vaccines for 1-2 dose boosters for their entire population each year for the next two years (suggesting they plan to use them, but haven’t decided whether a single boost is sufficient, or whether a full course is required again). The problem is that while immunity might last, we haven’t been looking for long enough to be sure, so I would expect boosters annually for pretty much everyone for the next couple of years whether we need them or not (we don’t know if we do, but it’s a risk not to).

In terms of variants, there’s still no evidence that any of them penetrate the protection of the vaccines in terms of the most serious outcomes and that is likely to remain the case (it’s highly unlikely the virus could change that much and still function the same way)…However, boosts with updated vaccines will build our immunological repertoire and strengthen our defences, so those annual boosts could well be updated vaccines targeted against variants that demonstrate some vaccine escape (in terms of infection), or indeed, newer vaccines may seek to build the parts of our immune response that area missing from those never naturally infected. In a weird way, if “delta” does cause breakthrough infections that don’t lead to any serious outcomes in vaccinated individuals, then infection may actually not be that bad a thing (it will lead to the emergence of an immune response with even greater diversity). That’s a pretty risky thing to be hoping for though! Best outcome is that what is seen in the recent Siren study report (vaccine wall holding firm against all variants) is what we see across the world, reinforcing the fact that we can vaccinate our way out of this.

Thanks .... so at some point in the future with a mix of jabs and natural immunity it may mean that the lower risk wont need jabs ... it will just be given to those of high risk like the flu jab now ..... its obviously a big logistical challenge doing entire populations and at the moment relies on a lot of volunteers ... how sustainable that help would be going forward would be a challenge 

[stuartbert two hats]

40 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I'm on the upward gradient of the rollercoaster...reckon because of a weakened link between cases and severe illness due to vaccines, a big push to vaccinate going on at moment, and poitical pressure on Johnson, I think roadmap won't be delayed. Or maybe it's just the class As I've been consuming all afternoon.

It's that discharge rate in Bolton that's turned my mood. Still don't like having a weekly growth rate of 280%, but as long as it doesn't peak much more than Bolton, we should be fine. You'd think the other places should peak lower, since they should be having their spikes in more vaccinated population, being later.

Still makes me nervous, since a small proportion of a very large number, can still be large.

 

[stuartbert two hats]

27 minutes ago, Aeroplane Over the Sea said:

Not many other viruses are killing millions of people in a year and sprouting new variants several times a year that are increasingly more infective 

Yeah, and that's probably because they're not novel viruses. That's why I'm not so worried about the long term future of life with this virus.

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

At the moment, expectation is that boosters for the most vulnerable, at least, will be used coming into winter this year. The UK has a deal with AZ for a P1 booster and Israel, EU, US have all ordered enough Pfizer vaccines for 1-2 dose boosters for their entire population each year for the next two years (suggesting they plan to use them, but haven’t decided whether a single boost is sufficient, or whether a full course is required again). The problem is that while immunity might last, we haven’t been looking for long enough to be sure, so I would expect boosters annually for pretty much everyone for the next couple of years whether we need them or not (we don’t know if we do, but it’s a risk not to).

In terms of variants, there’s still no evidence that any of them penetrate the protection of the vaccines in terms of the most serious outcomes and that is likely to remain the case (it’s highly unlikely the virus could change that much and still function the same way)…However, boosts with updated vaccines will build our immunological repertoire and strengthen our defences, so those annual boosts could well be updated vaccines targeted against variants that demonstrate some vaccine escape (in terms of infection), or indeed, newer vaccines may seek to build the parts of our immune response that are missing from those never naturally infected. In a weird way, if “delta” does cause breakthrough infections that don’t lead to any serious outcomes in vaccinated individuals, then infection may actually not be that bad a thing (it will lead to the emergence of an immune response with even greater diversity). That’s a pretty risky thing to be hoping for though! Best outcome is that what is seen in the recent Siren study report (vaccine wall holding firm against all variants) is what we see across the world, reinforcing the fact that we can vaccinate our way out of this.

immunological repertoire. How sexy is that?

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Thanks .... so at some point in the future with a mix of jabs and natural immunity it may mean that the lower risk wont need jabs ... it will just be given to those of high risk like the flu jab now ..... its obviously a big logistical challenge doing entire populations and at the moment relies on a lot of volunteers ... how sustainable that help would be going forward would be a challenge 

To be honest, the cellular immunity from the vaccine will most likely last for a very long time, so while your jab this year might not stop you from picking it up ever again, I’d hazard a guess that it will keep you alive for a long time if you do happen to pick it up, even if you never get another Covid vaccine again. But, we don’t know and that uncertainty is what will drive a cautious approach.

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Thanks .... so at some point in the future with a mix of jabs and natural immunity it may mean that the lower risk wont need jabs ... it will just be given to those of high risk like the flu jab now ..... its obviously a big logistical challenge doing entire populations and at the moment relies on a lot of volunteers ... how sustainable that help would be going forward would be a challenge 

yeah, that's the big headfuck...vaccinating the planet.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

To be honest, the cellular immunity from the vaccine will most likely last for a very long time, so while your jab this year might not stop you from picking it up ever again, I’d hazard a guess that it will keep you alive for a long time if you do happen to pick it up, even if you never get another Covid vaccine again. But, we don’t know and that uncertainty is what will drive a cautious approach.

can I butt in and ask...is there a possibility they will be able to tweak any of the vaccines to stop us getting the common cold?

[Ozanne]

26 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Double jabbed! Expected it to be busy today but was dead quiet. I was there five minutes max. Feels pretty good though!

Good stuff. Hope you don’t have any side effects!

[Zoo Music Girl]

15 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Good stuff. Hope you don’t have any side effects!

Wasn't too bad the first time at all so hoping for more of the same. But guess we'll see! 

[Toilet Duck]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

can I butt in and ask...is there a possibility they will be able to tweak any of the vaccines to stop us getting the common cold?

Alas, coronaviruses only account for about 10-15% of common colds. rhinoviruses cause most of them and a few others (RSV, parainfluenza virus among others)…and there’s bloody loads of different rhinoviruses! So, it’s probably something we’ll have to put up with I’m afraid!